Specific 2025 forecasts for EU imports from Brazil are not detailed, but trends point to potential increases in agricultural products like soybeans and crude oil, alongside ethanol, driven by favorable exchange rates and increasing EU demand for these goods, even as the overall EU economy faces modest growth. The ongoing EU-Mercosur free trade agreement ratification could further impact trade flows once approved.
Key
Factors Influencing 2025 Imports
· Agricultural &
Mineral Products: The EU imports significant amounts of mineral fuels and
oils, ores, and vegetable products (especially oilseeds, cereals, and soybean
exports) from Brazil. Soybean exports from Brazil to the EU are expected to
grow significantly.
· Ethanol: A weaker
Brazilian Real and competitive ethanol prices may boost Brazilian ethanol
exports to the EU in 2025.
· Economic
Conditions: The EU economy is forecast to have modest growth (1% in 2025),
while Brazil's economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2025. This dynamic could
encourage more imports from Brazil into the EU.
· EU-Mercosur Agreement: While pending ratification, the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement aims to remove trade barriers, which could open up new opportunities for both sides.
Specific Products to Watch
Soybeans:
Brazil's soybean exports to the EU are expected to reach a record high in
2025.
Drude
Oil: Crude oil is a major import from
Brazil to the EU, and its exports from Brazil are projected to grow.
Ethanol:
Brazil's increased ethanol exports to the EU are anticipated in 2025.
Honey: The EU has opened a duty-free quota for honey imports from Mercosur, which could increase imports from Brazil.
No official aggregated forecast is available for total EU imports from Brazil in 2025, but reports indicate a mixed outlook for key agricultural and energy products. Sector-specific predictions and the potential implementation of the EU-Mercosur trade deal will influence overall import figures.
Factors influencing EU imports from Brazil in 2025
Potential
for a slight decrease in overall value
Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) projects a potential 32% decline in Brazil's overall trade surplus for 2025, primarily due to lower commodity prices and increased imports. While not a direct forecast for EU imports, it suggests downward pressure on the value of Brazilian commodity exports, a significant portion of which go to the EU.
Key
commodity forecasts
· Ethanol: Traders
anticipate an increase in Brazilian ethanol exports to the EU, especially in
mid-2025. An arbitrage window could open due to lower Brazilian prices,
sustained demand in the EU, and potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian ethanol.
· Soybean
Meal: Record levels of Brazilian soybean meal exports to the EU were seen
in the first quarter of 2025. This was likely influenced by buyers anticipating
the EU's Deforestation-free Products Regulation (EUDR), which is now scheduled
to take effect for large traders on December 30, 2025. The EU is a top
destination for this product.
· Coffee: Rabobank reports that EU
imports of Brazilian coffee could be impacted by an early stock-building effect
during 2024 in anticipation of the EUDR and related tariff announcements.
· Poultry: The EU lifted restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports in September 2025, following a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak earlier in the year. This will resume imports from a key supplier, but the year's total volume will be affected by the temporary suspension.
Impact
of the EU-Mercosur trade deal
The
EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement could begin to influence trade toward the end
of 2025.
· Ratification: In
September 2025, the European Commission submitted an interim trade agreement to
the Council for signing, which would bypass national parliaments and accelerate
parts of the deal.
· Increased
Access: The deal aims to boost trade and investment, including providing
Mercosur countries, such as Brazil, with better access to the EU market for its
agricultural products.
· Challenges: The agreement faces opposition from EU farmers and environmentalists over concerns about cheap agricultural imports and environmental standards.
Other
key influences
· EUDR
implementation: The phased rollout of the EU Deforestation Regulation
could alter import patterns for key commodities like soybeans and coffee in
2025.
· Global factors: Broader geopolitical factors, including potential EU-U.S. tensions over trade policy and China's market dominance, will also shape the EU's trade relationship with Brazil in 2025.
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Comments
The EU could put more pressure on Brazil by canceling their Import Deal with Brazil, because they are funding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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