The most recent poll of party
identification by Gallup has found an
average 43 percent of Americans identified politically as independents in 2014,
a new record for the polling organization.
The uptrend in
independents directly corresponds to the downtrend in Republican
self-identification, both in the post-1990 period, and the post-2005 period.
Both major downturns occurred while a Republican was in the White House.
The findings
are remarkably similar to another, “Analysis of Party Self-Identification in
America,” by Norman Analytics and Research
for the Market Research Foundation.
This
independent analysis showed 45 percent are self-identified independents in
October 2014, confirming Gallup’s result of 43 percent average for 2014. It
digs into the question of who self-identifiers are, including Republicans and
independents, and where they stand on issues.
The key
finding: “Independents are nearly twice as likely to have conservative views as
liberal ones.”
In the Market
Research Foundation study, for example, 35 percent of independents considered
themselves to be economically conservative, compared with just 14 percent
saying they were economically liberal. The rest fell in between.
Meaning, any
uptick in independents self-identification corresponding with downtick in
Republicans indicates that new independents are more likely to be disaffected
Republicans.
The two studies
confirm more recent findings by pollster Pat Caddell. In an interview with Breitbart News’ Robert
Wilde, pollster Caddell reported that,
“The alienation among Republican voters is so high,” and that conservatively “a
quarter to one-third of the Republican party are hanging by a thread from
bolting.”
In a recent poll by Caddell conducted, 84 percent of GOP voters and leaners said they were less
likely to support if their member votes to use taxpayer money to implement
Obama’s amnesty.
That would
explain why the long-term slide of Republican self-identification has resulted
directly in the rise of independents. The disaffection is real.
More
conservatively, the Market Research Foundation study found of independents
“their hesitation in aligning with the Republican Party could come from a
variety of sources. This hesitation is enough to encourage them to say they
vote for a variety of candidates. In reality, with encouragement to support
individual candidates rather than the Republican Party or its entire platform,
these individuals will likely support conservative candidates more often than
not.”
And: “they
choose not to self-identify with the Republican Party so attempts to convince
them to adopt the full Party platform will be unsuccessful. Instead,
Independents are likely to support individual candidates with conservative views,
allowing them to keep their preferred distance from a major political party.”
Independents
are “gettable” — and Republicans will not long survive as a national party
without them — but what is not widely known about them are their conservative
views, particularly on economic, fiscal, education, and health care issues.
Considering the
combined results of all the studies, Republicans risk extinction if they move
too far off the reservation, particularly on issues like immigration and health
care. The greater number of conservative independents, the fewer Republicans
there are.
The only way
Republicans stop the erosion of self-identification is to reconnect to the
conservative views of the voters they need to win elections. Pursuing any other
course might be electoral suicide.
Robert Romano
is the senior editor of Americans for Limited Government.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx
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