Everyone is so worried about China’s economy. True, it had a
wicked stock market pullback — but China’s economy will not suffer, and quite
to the contrary, it’s poised for much more growth. Here’s why …
A. China’s economy is fine, growing at 7.0%.Latest figures
for industrial production and retail sales show healthy growth as well, rising
6.1% and 10.1%, year over year, respectively in May. Compare that with 1.3% and
1.4% for the U.S. economy! Moreover …
B. China’s economy is likely to experience nothing but a
temporary speed bump due to the recent market selloff. Keep in mind … On a
purchasing power basis, China’s economy is now larger than ours, at better than
$19 trillion. Yet at the recent highs, China’s equity market capitalization was
only $10 trillion.
Put another way, if China’s stock market capitalization were
to roughly equal 1 to 1 as our market cap does with our GDP …
Then China’s stock markets would have to double from their
recent highs, and from the recent crash low, gain more than 170 percent.
So is there long-term potential there? Absolutely. In
addition …
C. The Chinese are massively underinvested in stocks. The
total number of stock brokerage accounts in China is less than 10% of the
entire population.
Zhengzhou – home of 9.19 million. Compare that to the U.S.,
where according to a 2014 Gallop survey, 52% of Americans say they personally,
or jointly with a spouse, own stock outright or as part of a mutual fund or
self-directed retirement account.
D. China’s national savings equals $21 trillion. That’s
citizens’ savings on deposit in banks and financial firms. That’s more savings
in a piggy bank than the entire Gross Domestic Product of our economy.
Compare that to total U.S. savings deposits at all U.S.
depository institutions of $7.9 trillion. Put another way, Chinese save $2.6
for every $1 America saves. So why all the doom and gloom on China? I’ll tell
you why …
First, most analysts never even step foot in China, so they
can’t possibly understand the economy. The Chinese are amongst the hardest
working cultures on the planet, routinely working 18 hour days, six days a
week. Moreover, for most Chinese, failure is not an option. Entire families are
deeply rooted in the family’s success, both as a family unit and also whatever
enterprise they are involved in, whether that be farming, manufacturing, or
what have you.
Second, the doom about China’s massive debt is totally
misunderstood. Yes, there are big debts in the Chinese economy. But it is still
a communist country with a largely closed economy where most industry is still
state-owned. That means it’s the state owing the state, the equivalent of two
pockets on the same pair of pants. That is distinctly different from a fully
open, fully capitalist economy.
Third, as I have said all along, stories of “ghost cities”
in China is pure hogwash, tales told by inexperienced analysts, reporters, and
tourists.
China builds for the future. The country builds in
anticipation of migration. Case in point: A new metropolis in Zhengzhou, of
Henan Province in east-central China. When reporters from “60 Minutes” visited
the city in 2013, they called it a “ghost city.” Today, just over two years
later, over 4.2 million Chinese reside in that “ghost city” … while Zhengzhou’s
total population has mushroomed to 9.19 million.
That said, the recent shakeout in China’s stock markets is
not yet over. Basis the Shanghai A shares index, I would look to establish
long-term positions in top Chinese companies when the index falls back from its
current 4,220 level to the 3,200 area.
Have views on China or any other issue? Click this link
to visit the website and add your views.
Our Readers Speak
My columns Monday and Tuesday on gold and commodities
continued to bring in a flood of reader comments. Let’s take a look at a few.
Reader David writes: “With my half-vast understanding of
economics and the theory of money and credit, I have come to the conclusion
that probably the best possible monetary system would be gold-based.
Not a ‘gold-standard,’ but real true money being gold coins
and bullion with fully-convertible money-substitutes (certificates) in a system
of “Free-Banking” that permits laissez-faire FRB [Fractional Reserve Banking].
It seems to me that since the total stock of currency would
be fixed at a known quantity, governments could not debase by inflation of the
total stock of currency.
Now, why wouldn’t that work? And what’s your opinion of Bitcoin
and the other “crypto-currencies? Do you think it is a viable concept?”
My response: It wouldn’t work for the simple reason that
once you fix the price of something, or even the supply, you set up a
deflationary cycle that would set the economy back decades.
As to crypto-currencies, they will keep popping up, but the
governments of the world will merely learn from them, then squash them. They
want to move to an electronic digital currency themselves, so they will not
permit any competition. — Larry
Reader Alan writes: “Hi Larry, your thoughts then are much
like Martin Armstrong where we get a selloff maybe yet this Summer-Fall, then a
rally to a top in 2016-2017 timeframe for the U.S. markets, while Europe sinks
first and then Japan? All about money flow!”
My response: I know Martin well, we go back together to the
early 1980s and I consider him my mentor on cycles. And yes, it’s all about
capital flows and confidence, or the lack thereof. — Larry
Reader Robert writes: “Hi Larry: Please elaborate, how are
the Europeans transferring money to the U.S. or Americans transferring money to
Asian investments?”
My response: Through investment. In equities, real estate,
and more. — Larry
Reader Donald asks: “You have not addressed oil lately. Your
prediction on how low it will go, then when will it start back up and how far
up will it go?”
My response: Oil will not bottom till it falls below $40 a
barrel, possibly even below $30. It will then turn around to the upside, with a
vengeance. Probably not till 2017.
Reader John writes: “Does this recent China gold situation
change your outlook for gold?”
My response: Not at all, to the contrary, it confirms gold
is heading lower. — Larry
Reader Jerry points out: “I’ve been following you for several
years and have found your information to be fairly accurate. I too am very
concerned about your Oct. 7 forecast, especially what we may face here in the
U.S. According to all that I read, our country is in debt to the tune of more
than 200 trillion dollars and climbing. There are about 150 million people
working here. If each one of us paid a one-time amount of $150, or 42 cents per
day for 1 year, that would generate about 22.5 trillion dollars. A small price
to pay and more than enough to pay the debt and give the U.S. a fresh start. Or
is my math faulty?”
My response: The math is wrong. $150 times 150 million
workers would be only $22.5 billion, not trillion. To pay it off in a year,
each one of those 150 million U.S. workers would have to pay $1.33 million.
Spread it over, say 20 years, and you’re still talking over
$66,000 a year. Spread it over 100 years and it would be $13,330 a year.
None of this includes the cost of interest expense. So as
you can see, it’s patently unpayable, even if we were all super-patriotic. —
Larry
Want to comment on any of the above matters? Or anything
else? Use this link to go to the website to add your views. Best wishes,
as always … Larry
Market Roundup Dow-68.25
to 17,851.04 S&P-5.06 to 2,114.15 NASDAQ-36.35 to 5,171.77 10-YR Yield-0.02 to 2.32% Gold-$11.20 to $1,092.30 Oil-$1.68 to $49.18
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