The math to get
Trump the nomination
Numbers start adding up in GOP primary, by Jerome Corsi, 3/7/16,
WND
NEW YORK – Despite the
Republican establishment’s “#NeverTrump” movement against the party’s
presidential primary front-runner, Donald Trump’s campaign is positioned to
advance this month.
Trump might even gain
enough delegates by the end of March to reach the halfway point of the 1,237
needed to win the GOP presidential nomination on the first ballot.
Going into the week of
March 7, Trump has 385 delegates versus 300 for Sen. Ted Cruz.
Cruz has surged since
last Thursday’s Fox News debate, splitting with Trump the GOP elections held on
Saturday. Cruz won the Kansas and Maine caucuses, while Trump took the primary contests
in Kentucky and Louisiana.
On March 15, the GOP
primary season enters a second phase, with “winner take all” contests in Ohio
and Florida. The previous elections were proportional, with each candidate
obtaining delegates based on a percentage of the vote.
Based on the most recent
polling data, Table 1 shows Trump obtaining more than 300 delegates in March
primaries, with wins in both Ohio and Florida.
This would give Trump a
total of nearly 700 delegates, with Cruz at about 400, presuming the Texas
senator also loses the “winner- take-all” primaries in Missouri and Arizona,
where Trump has commanding leads.
Table 1
Remaining GOP Primaries
in March 2016
|
|
Total Delegates
|
Trump
RCP Avg.
|
Cruz
RCP
Avg.
|
Rubio
RCP
Avg.
|
Kasich
RCP
Avg.
|
Trump Delegate
Count
|
|
Hawaii
March 8
|
19
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
|
Michigan
March 8
|
59
|
38.5
|
20.5
|
13.3
|
20.0
|
23
|
|
Mississippi
March 8
|
40
|
41.0*
|
17.0
|
16.0
|
8.0
|
16
|
|
Idaho
March 8
|
32
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
|
D.C.
March 12
|
19
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
n/r
|
|
Florida
March 15
|
99
WTA
|
44.7
|
26.0
|
12.3
|
8.3
|
99
|
|
Ohio
March 15
|
66
WTA
|
31.0**
|
21.0
|
13.0
|
26.0
|
66
|
|
Illinois
March 15
|
69
|
33.0
|
15.5
|
17.5
|
11.0
|
23
|
|
Missouri
March 15
|
52
WTA
|
23.0***
|
9.0
|
6.0
|
4.0
|
52
|
|
North Carolina
March 15
|
72
|
29.8
|
19.5
|
17.5
|
6.8
|
21
|
|
Arizona
March 22
|
58
WTA
|
34.8****
|
n/r
|
22.7
|
n/r
|
20
|
|
Utah
March 22
|
40
|
18.0*****
|
22.0
|
24.0
|
4.0
|
7
|
|
Total
|
|
307
|
* Magellan
Strategies, ** Quinnipiac, *** Public Policy Polling, **** MBQF,
***** UtahPolicy.com, n/r=not reported, WTA=Winner Take All.
Cruz, so far, has shown
an ability to win primaries in states close to home, with victories in his home
state of Texas and in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Conceivably, if Marco Rubio were to drop out of the race after losing the Florida primary, as currently projected, Cruz stands to gain voters who are reluctant to embrace Trump. If Cruz loses Ohio and Florida to Trump, the mathematics dictate that Cruz’s best hope would not necessarily be to win outright, but to prevent Trump from getting the number of delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot.
The numerical chance
that Cruz could win enough delegates to gain the nomination on the first ballot
is increasingly slim, especially should Trump capture all of the “winner take
all” primaries in March.
If Trump wins more than
300 delegates this month, he would need only about 500 more in April, May and
June to reach the 1,237 required to win the nomination on the first ballot.
Primary contest April,
May and June
After Mitt Romney’s
drawn-out battle for delegates in 2012 with Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum,
the GOP structured the primaries so the candidate with a lead through February
has the opportunity to accelerate his or her momentum in April through the
winner-take-all contests.
Table 2
“Winner Take All” GOP
Primaries, April, May, and June 2016
|
Date
|
State
|
Total Delegates
|
|
April 5
|
Wisconsin
|
42 WTA
|
|
April 26
|
Delaware
|
16 WTA
|
|
April 26
|
Maryland
|
38 WTA
|
|
April 26
|
Pennsylvania
|
54 Proportional,17 WTA
|
|
May 3
|
Indiana
|
57 WTA
|
|
June 7
|
California
|
172 WTA
|
|
June 7
|
Montana
|
27 WTA
|
|
June 7
|
New Jersey
|
51 WTA
|
|
June 7
|
South Dakota
|
29 WTA
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
449 WTA
|
While Trump cannot be
expected to win all of the winner-take-all GOP primaries in April, May and
June, none are regarded as strongly conservative or evangelical states.
Table 3
“Proportionate” GOP
Primaries, April, May and June 2016
|
Date
|
State
|
Total Delegates
|
|
April 19
|
New York
|
95
|
|
April 26
|
Connecticut
|
28
|
|
April 26
|
Rhode Island
|
19
|
|
May 10
|
Nebraska
|
36
|
|
May 10
|
West Virginia
|
37
|
|
May 17
|
Oregon
|
28
|
|
May 24
|
Washington
|
44
|
|
June 7
|
New Mexico
|
24
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
311 Proportionate
|
As seen in Tables 2 and
3, no Southern states are scheduled to hold GOP primaries in April, May and
June.
Trump’s cushion in the
proportional primaries in April, May and June is New York, his home state, with
95 delegates, the most for any proportional state holding its GOP primary in
these three months.
Comments
As of 3/7/16, Trump’s delegate
total was 384. If you add 307 for the rest of March, 499 for March to June 7
and 311 for April May and June, you get 1501 possible for Trump.
As of 3/9/16 Trump has
458 and Cruz has 359. The question is if Trump will win the 1,237 delegates
needed before the GOP July convention in Cleveland.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA
Tea Party Leader
Hi. Please post an update to this tracker now taht we have gone through super Tuesday 2.
ReplyDeleteThanks!