Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Negative Interest Rate Consequences

Japan has to print more cash as bank runs continue from negative interest rates, 4/7/16, Examiner

When a government or central bank decides to embark on a monetary policy of negative interest rates, there are ramifications that must be addressed in their banking system to protect against the people revolting by taking their money out of these institutions. The first is the implementation of capital controls, which could be as innocuous as limiting the amount of cash a citizen or business can move offshore, or as draconian as putting limits on how much money these same entities can take out of the bank in a given time period. And the second is the elimination of cash altogether, and making the currency an entirely digital construct.

But on April 7, Japan has decided on a third option due to the ongoing bank runs that are taking place by their citizens following Haruhiko Kuroda's move to institute negative interest rates at the beginning of the year. And that option is to simply print more ¥10,000 yen notes since the banks have nearly run out of the larger currency in the aftermath of the Japanese people stuffing their cash in personal safes or alternative locations.

NIRP by definition is deflationary, and as such as prompts consumers to delay consumption, and as a result to save as much as possible, if not in the banks where their savings may soon be taxed under NIRP regimes, then in cash.  And nowhere if the failure of NIRP - and unconventional monetary policy in general - more evident than what just happened in Japan, where according to Japan Times, the Finance Ministry plans to increase the number of ¥10,000 bills in circulation, amid signs that more people are hoarding cash.

It will print 1.23 billion such notes in fiscal 2016, 180 million more than a year earlier. The number of ¥10,000 bills issued annually leveled off at around 1.05 billion in the fiscal years from 2011 to 2015.

The paper adds that some financial market sources believe it is because more people are keeping their money at home rather than in banks, because interest rates on deposits have fallen to almost zero after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate in February.

Actually make that most market sources, because the failure of NIRP is now too staggering for even tenured economists to deny. As for Japan, Kuroda appears to have made the country's chronic over-saving problem even worse.

The total amount of cash stashed at home is estimated to have surged by nearly ¥5 trillion to some ¥40 trillion in the past year, Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said. - Zerohedge

Even outside Japan, the sudden rise in nations going to negative interest rates are being complimented by a push for the banning of cash, and limiting people's options in leaving the banking system entirely to protect their money from being summarily 'taxed' by fees under this policy. And these policy moves are also in part responsible for the rising price for gold, which is being seen as a much greater haven of safety for those holding large amounts of sovereign currencies.

As more and more countries attempt to force their people into spending cash in an effort to boost declining economies, the more these same individuals will rebel by taking their money out of banks and putting it into safe havens like gold, offshore assets, or even personal safes. And for the Japanese government, they must believe there is a strong possibility for civil unrest if capital controls are implemented as they are instead willing to allow a run on the banks to occur, and aiding this by printing many more high denomination bills to accommodate it.

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Comments

The next trend in Japan should be an increase in armed robbery of old Japanese who are riding their bikes to pay their electric bills, followed by an increase in pagoda break-ins by safe-crackers.


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leaders

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