Future of
farming: Driverless tractors, ag robots, by Jeff Daniels, 9/16/16. CNBC.com
Source: CNH Industrial/Case IH Case
IH Magnum Autonomous Tractor in field with a planter implement.
Within the next decade, farming as
we know it is expected to be revolutionized by the use of self-driving tractors
and robots that can perform time-consuming tasks now done by humans.
Sales of major farm machinery have
been in a continued slump amid weak prices for key crops such as corn and soybeans,
but the ever-present need to control farm costs and increase output will
eventually drive farmers to adopt autonomous technologies.
"They (farmers) are a pretty
cautious bunch, which is understandable," said Kraig Schulz, co-founder
and CEO of Autonomous Tractor Corp., a small private company based in Minnesota
that is developing AutoDrive technology for tractors. Its technology is aimed
at turning existing tractors into semi-autonomous machines.
Experts say the first wave of
autonomous tech in ag will go primarily to higher-value crops, such as tree
nuts, vineyards and fresh produce. Also, some suggest that the big tractors
could be replaced with self-propelled autonomous implements, such as sprayers
in row crops, orchards and vineyards or with other robotic equipment for other
specific tasks on the farm.
All told, Goldman Sachs predicts
farm technologies could become a $240 billion market opportunity for ag
suppliers, with smaller driverless tractors a $45 billion market on its own.
Tens of billions could be spent on advanced tech for major farm uses such as
precision fertilizer, planting, spraying and irrigation, Goldman predicts.
Rising costs for farm labor and
falling costs for self-driving technology also will provide further catalysts
for the shift.
On Monday, California Gov. Jerry
Brown signed into law a bill giving farm workers in the state — the
nation's largest agricultural producer — historic overtime pay.
"This is going to have a
serious effect on farming out in California," said Schulz, who expects
rising labor costs to be an opportunity for autonomous and even semi-autonomous
equipment to replace some of the human labor needed in farming.
"Rising labor costs would
certainly be a positive for adoption of automated processes," said Jerry
Revich, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.
Self-driving tech prices falling
At the same time, the progress in
self-driving technology for automobiles, including both object detection
capabilities using multi-camera systems, radar and lidar technology could help speed up and lower the cost of
developing autonomous farm machinery.
"Some of the new sensors that
help you autonomously park your car, parallel park, backup sensors, cameras and
things like that — all that stuff — the cost has come way down on it and it's
allowed us to leverage it more in our machines," said Matt Rushing, a vice
president in charge of precision ag and advanced technology for AGCO.
The content and technology to move
to driverless cars cost about $2,700 per vehicle, according to Goldman Sachs.
In agriculture, autonomous driving equipment would require technology where
there is a slightly higher complexity, but "not disproportionately
higher," Revich said. "We're watching the sensor and technology
prices really move down," said Rob Zemenchik, global product
marketing manager for Case IH's
precision farming unit,
Advanced Farming Systems.
Europe's CNH
Industrial, known for its Case IH tractor
brand, unveiled an autonomous concept tractor last month in Iowa at the Farm
Progress Show, one of the world's largest farm shows. CNH's autonomous tractor
could presumably work unmanned around the clock and uses GPS and sensor
technology. The grower could remotely monitor and control the machine using a
device such as a tablet.
CNH's concept tractor does maintain
the driver cab so the operator can perform tasks not presently suited to
automation, such as commuting between fields or going through suburban or rural
community roads to reach a farm.
"We're focusing on perfecting the
off-road parts of the solution and we're very comfortable with our progress to
date," said Zemenchik. CNH's autonomous tractor could come to market as
early as 2020.
A Deere spokesman said the farm
equipment giant does not have a driverless tractor on the market, although the
company has done some work on driverless technology in orchards. Deere's
strategy has been generally to develop ag technologies internally, although it
recently tried to buy Monsanto's Precision Planting, but the Justice Department blocked
that deal.
Swarms of farming robots
The autonomous driving trend isn't
limited to large farm machinery. There's also interest in smaller tractors and ag robots, and some see them working in groups of
five or more in a swarm-like action.
One lure for the smaller machines is
they would be lighter and reduce soil compaction, a problem today with heavy
tractor machinery and one that can reduce crop yields.
According to Goldman Sachs, a fleet
of smaller automated tractors could lift farmer revenue by more than 10 percent
and reduce farm labor costs. It also suggests that precision ag technology used
today is already saving growers money and increasing yields.
Globally, Goldman estimates that
advances in ag technology — including such things as autonomous ag vehicles,
farm robots, drones, as well as precision in planting, fertilizing and
irrigation — could result in farm yields potentially rising by more than 70
percent by the year 2050.
"You'll start to see more and
more autonomous vehicles, especially smaller vehicles in farming, replacing
some of the manual work that we would have seen being done by
humans," said Rushing, the AGCO executive.
Indeed, AGCO has a concept that
would give small mobile, cloud-controlled units the capability to perform
various tasks in farming. The technology from AGCO's Fendt subsidiary "is
focused on eliminating not only the cost and inefficiencies of an operator, but
also the cost of the tractor and the planter tool bar as well," according
to the company.
AGCO expects a fleet of field robots
could also be offered as a service by dealers to farmers since they could
presumably be put on a trailer and delivered. If that happens, the Duluth,
Georgia-based company said it could reduce the capital costs for the farmer
since they wouldn't need to make a big equipment purchase.
Source: Blue River Technology
See & Spray machine from Blue
River Technology that can identify plants and weeds to spray chemicals for crop
protection.
For some farmers, automation is
already here. Robotic milking machines are used by some dairies, and planting
is automated in vegetables, yet weeding and harvesting of vegetables and fruit
largely relies on hand labor.
Blue River Technology, a Sunnyvale,
California-based start-up, is using robotics and smart tech to automate lettuce
thinning with a so-called lettuce bot.
"It's a product that has been
doing pretty well not only because it's an alternative to scarce (farm) labor
that we have in California but also because it does a better job than humans
can," said Jorge Heraud, co-founder and CEO of Blue River Technology. He
added that the company also has a machine known as See and Spray, which can
identify plants and weeds to spray chemicals precisely.
Fragile crops such as fresh tomatoes
and strawberries have some of the most hand-labor needs but Heraud said the
industry is working on smart machines to automate some of the harvesting of
these crops and it could be available to growers within five to 10 years. "Already,
it's feasible but it needs to be cheaper and more reliable," he said.
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