Iran,
Russia, and China's Central Role in the Venezuela Crisis, by Joseph
M. Humire, 2/14/18
Prior to any discussion on what to do
about Venezuela, a consensus about what led to this crisis needs to be reached.
The role of Iran is critical in such a conversation.
As in the Syria conflict, Iran's primary
role is preparing the Venezuelan battlefield through a range of operations in
irregular warfare, using non-state actors and surrogates to gain influence over
the population.
Strong evidence suggest that Venezuela
used its immigration agency to provide Venezuelan identities and documents to
several hundred, if not thousands, of Middle Easterners. Without proper vetting
and verification measures in place, and a high degree of counterintelligence
support, our regional allies will not know if Venezuelan refugees spilling
across borders are legitimate refugees or members of a transregional
clandestine network between Latin America and the Middle East.
Any intervention in Venezuela --
military, humanitarian or otherwise -- will not work unless it is aimed at
removing the external influences, especially Iran, Russia and China, that have
turned Venezuela into the Syria of the Western Hemisphere.
U.S.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson just completed, by most accounts, a successful
visit to Latin America. He began his five-nation tour by invoking the Monroe
Doctrine and suggesting the Venezuelan military could
manage a "peaceful transition" from the authoritarian leader Nicolás
Maduro. This reminded several regional observers of President Trump's suggestion
last year of a possible "military option" for Venezuela, hinting at
possible U.S. or multilateral intervention to stop the country's collapse.
An
armed action or military intervention in Venezuela by any nation in the Western
Hemisphere, including Venezuela's own military, must take into accountthe
role of Iran, Russia and China in the crisis. Russia and China were prominently mentioned by
Tillerson during his visit to the region; Iran, however, was notably absent
from his remarks. Prior
to any discussion on what to do about Venezuela, a consensus about what led to
this crisis needs be reached. The role of Iran is critical in such a
conversation.
Most
regional analysts will likely agree that Venezuela has become a Cuban-occupied country. With more than 30,000 Cubans embedded
in Venezuela, many of whom are part of the intelligence and security apparatus,
it's clear that the Castro brothers had an integral role in the country's
collapse. The Cuba narrative, however, misses two key points. First, it fails
to identify precisely Cuba's role in Venezuela, and secondly, it ignores the
presence and influence of other key extra-regional actors.
Of
these, Russia and China are perhaps the two most visible. As in Syria, and
historically in Central America, Russia is the primary supplier of lethal
military aid, along with financial and technical support to the Venezuelan armed forces.
Totaling more than $11 billion in
military goods thanks
to Russian arms sales, Venezuela represents 75% of Russia's total foreign
military sales in the region. Additionally, the Russian state-owned energy
firm, Rosneft, has provided Venezuela with an estimated $17 billion in
financing since
2006. Moscow has leveraged its collateral deals to acquire expanded stakes in
Venezuela's oilfields, namely the heavy-crude Orinoco belt, which gives Russia
more control of Venezuela's strategic energy assets.
Russia
is not alone in leveraging debt for greater control of strategic assets in Venezuela.
According to the International Institute of Finance, China holds more
than $23 billion in
Venezuela's foreign debt,
making it the country's largest creditor. Through these credits and loans,
Beijing is the primary benefactor and principal banker to the South American
nation, and China has enormous leverage over outcomes in Venezuela.
Chinese
energy companies are also gaining an increasing share of Venezuela's most
lucrative oil field, the Faja Del Orinoco (FDO). With a 25-year land grant to
the FDO, China has
secured access to strategic territory in Venezuela; and in exchange, China has used its checkbook to fund
many of the Bolivarian Republic's social programs, such as subsidized housing
and free medical clinics.
External
support from China, Russia, and Cuba has contributed significantly to propping
up the Venezuelan government during the last decade. Both Russia and China
continue to leverage their financial, military, and energy support to the
Maduro regime through Cuba's robust
counterintelligence and
human intelligence networks, which permeate Venezuela's highest political and
military levels. Cuba is indispensable to China and Russia for its operational
knowledge of Russian-supplied equipment, along with its longstanding ties to
communist clandestine networks.
In
this context, it is hard to imagine a scenario that removes Havana's presence
from Venezuela without first passing through Moscow or Beijing. Iran, on the
other hand, can operate independently in Venezuela because it taps into a
separate, more robust clandestine network that has been developing in Latin
America for more than half a century.
Approximately
60% of the population of the city of As-Suwayda in southwestern Syria (pop.
139,000, according to the 2004 census) are Venezuelan-born dual citizens. Many
more have arrived since 2009. The district of As-Suwayda (same name as the
city) has been dubbed "Little Venezuela." Estimates indicate that upwards
of 300,000 Syrians from the As-Suwayda Governorate
currently live halfway around the world in Venezuela. According to the late
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, more than a million Syrians reside there. This Syria-Venezuela
connection could represent a clandestine network managed by Iran and critical
to the advancement of Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution."
As
in the Syria conflict, Iran's primarily role is preparing the Venezuelan
battlefield through a range of operations in irregular warfare, using non-state
actors and surrogates to gain influence over the population. Its influence is
often not visible on the ground, but is felt through the repression anti-regime
of protestors in 2017 and earlier. During anti-Maduro demonstrations, the
motorcycle-riding members of the Venezuelan civilian militias known as Collectivos were remarkable for
being modeled and trained by Iran's
paramilitary Basij militia. The role of the Basij in crushing Iran's Green
Revolution in 2009 provided lesson for dealing with anti-regime protestors half
a decade later in Venezuela.
The
extent of Iran's influence in Venezuela has long been a source of debate for
the U.S. and regional security analysts. The Iranian regime's roots as a
revolutionary movement with anti-imperialist rhetoric and expanding dominance
throughout the Middle East has brought Russia and China, two historic cold war
adversaries, closer together. In many ways, Iran has positioned itself in
Venezuela to capitalize on China's economic clout and Russia's military
footprint. For instance, Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics
(MODAFL) used a variety of joint projects with Venezuela's military
industry (CAVIM)
as well as Russian and Chinese oil contracts with PDVSA to shield its evasion
of international sanctions.
Iran's
comparative advantage, however, is in the development of clandestine structures
through surrogate forces and proxy networks. Its most prominent proxy force,
Lebanese Hezbollah, is known to deploy to global hotspots on behalf of Iran.
Meanwhile, the Qods Force (the extra-territorial arm of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps - IRGC) works with Hezbollah to increase social
pressure in these hotspots to exacerbate conflicts. The Hezbollah and IRGC-QF
cooperation is an important component of the Syrian civil war.
In
Venezuela, long-standing clandestine networks from Syria, Lebanon and the
Middle East are playing a similar role behind the scenes in shaping the
narrative and ultimately directing the actions of the country's key players.
These networks have provided the Venezuelan regime with the know-how
systematically to control the population and dominate the narrative. Their rise
to prominence can be seen not only in the abundance of Arabs in the Venezuelan
government, but also in the way the Venezuelan crisis has unfolded, following
the same pattern of economic and social grievances to violent uprisings with
external support.
The
humanitarian crisis in Venezuela began with severe shortages of
food and medicine prompting
a legitimate grievance among the population, which lead to an uprising last
year. Many forget that prior to the its civil war, Syria faced a severe drought that was a factor in other violent
uprisings that began in 2011. As in Syria, Venezuela has become a humanitarian
crisis that exacerbates refugee outflows with serious counterterrorism concerns
and a strong Russian and Iranian presence. Unlike Syria, however, this crisis
rests much closer to U.S. shores.
Strong evidence suggests that Venezuela used its
immigration agency (SAIME) to provide Venezuelan identities and documents to
several hundred, if not thousands, of Middle Easterners. Without proper
vetting and verification measures in place, and a high degree of
counterintelligence support, our regional allies will not know if Venezuelan
refugees spilling across borders are legitimate refugees or members of a
transregional clandestine network between Latin America and the Middle East.
As
Secretary Tillerson calls upon regional allies to
increase support to
resolve Venezuela's humanitarian crisis and apply more pressure to the Maduro
regime, it would make sense for the Trump administration also to help U.S.
allies by enhancing their counterintelligence and counterterrorism capabilities
against Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere. It appears that some of
this cooperation is already beginning to take place, as evidenced by a new agreement between the U.S. and Argentina to
tackle Hezbollah's illicit financing in the Southern Cone.
Dealing
with the tragedy that has transpired in Venezuela over more than two decades
will require a better public understanding of the central role of
extra-regional actors, particularly Iran, in the country's crisis.
Any
intervention in Venezuela -- military, humanitarian or otherwise -- will not
work unless it is aimed at removing the external influences, especially Iran,
Russia and China, that have turned Venezuela into the Syria of the Western
Hemisphere.
Joseph M. Humire is the executive director of the
Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS) and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
This article has taken excerpts from a forthcoming special report by Mr. Humire
on "Venezuela's Crisis: A New Global Paradigm." You can follow him on
Twitter @jmhumire
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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