Tuesday, July 3, 2018

EU Break-Up Ahead


Those who import and export goods have developed relationships with customers and vendors for millennia.  In recent centuries they had to contend with Tariffs being imposed by their governments.  They pressured their governments to agree to recognize trade associations where corporations could control the tariffs. This occurred in Europe after World War II.

EU History article - In 1951, the concept of a European trade area was first established. The European Coal and Steel Community had six founding members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
 In 1957, the Treaty of Rome established a common market. It eliminated customs duties in 1968. It put in place standard policies, particularly in trade and agriculture. In 1973, the ECSC added Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. It created its first Parliament in 1979. Greece joined in 1981, followed by Spain and Portugal in 1986.

In 1993, the Treaty of Maastricht established the European Union common market. Two years later, the EU added Austria, Sweden, and Finland. In 2004, twelve more countries joined: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 

In 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon increased the powers of the European Parliament. It gave the EU the legal authority to negotiate and sign international treaties. It increased EU powers, border control, immigration, judicial cooperation in civil and criminal matters, and police cooperation. It abandoned the idea of a European Constitution. European law is still established by international treaties. 

Brexit. On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. It could take two years to negotiate the terms of the exit. Some EU members asked for an earlier withdrawal. The uncertainty dampened business growth for companies that operate in Europe. 

U.S. companies are the largest investors in Great Britain. They invested $588 billion and employed more than a million people. These companies use it as the gateway to free trade with the EU. Britain's investment in the United States is at the same level. That could impact up to two million U.S. / U.K. jobs. It's unknown exactly how many are held by U.S. citizens. 

The day after the vote, the Dow fell 600 points. The euro fell 2 percent to $1.11. In the face of so much volatilitygold prices rose 6 percent from $1,255 to $1,330. 

What caused Brexit? Many in the United Kingdom, as in other EU nations, worried about the free movement of immigrants and refugees. They don't like the budgetary constraints and regulations imposed by the EU. They want to enjoy the benefits of free movement of capital and trade but not the costs. 

Immigration. In 2015, 1.2 million refugees from Africa and the Middle East poured through its borders. On New Year's Eve 2016, a gang of young refugees robbed and sexually assaulted more than 600 women. As a result, many EU countries sealed off their borders. That stranded 8,000 immigrants in Greece. The EU signed an agreement with Turkey to take back refugees who had reached Greece. In return, the EU would pay Turkey 6 billion euros. In the September 2017 election, opposition to the refugees cost Merkel's party its majority in the government. Immigration is the main reason the U.K.  majority voted for Brexit.

Greek Debt Crisis. In 2011, the Greece debt crisis threatened the concept of the Eurozone. It almost triggered sovereign debt crises in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. EU leaders assured investors that it would stand behind its members' debts. At the same time, they imposed austerity measures to restrain the countries' spending. They wanted all members to honor the debt limits imposed by the Maastricht Treaty requirements. 

2008 Financial Crisis. In July 2008, the ECB increased rates to 4.25 percent to combat 4 percent inflation caused by high oil prices. The euro strengthened, weakening EU exports. Factory orders plummeted 4.4 percent, the biggest decrease since 2003. 

The ECB switched to recession-fighting in October, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. By May 2009, it had lowered the rate to 1 percent. But it began raising rates again too soon. By July 2011, the rate was 1.5 percent, creating a credit crunch and recession. In December 2011, it lowered the rate back down to 1 percent. In March 2015, the ECB began purchasing 60 billion in euro-denominated bonds per month. Its launch of quantitative easing pushed the euro's value down to $1.06 from $1.20 in January. Since then, the euro to dollar conversion has strengthened to $1.23 in April 2018.

In 2007, the EU became the world's largest economy. Its gross domestic product was $14.4 trillion, beating the U.S. GDP of $13.86 trillion. The EU held onto its premier position through the 2008 financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis. In 2013, the United States briefly regained its leading position. China took over the top spot in 2014. 
The value of the euro continued to rise until the credit crisis in 2007. At that time, there was a flight to safety to the dollar. This strengthened the dollar. The euro's weakness didn't boost exports due to lower worldwide demand.


In 2015 the EU imposed the UN refugee plan on EU member countries. Poland refused and UK voted to quit the EU.

Now in 2018, UK is leaving the EU and Austria, Hungary and Italy have joined Poland in refusing to take refugees and other EU member countries are trying to get rid of the refugees they already have. Politicians are in trouble in most EU member countries because of the refugee problem.

The EU overstepped its bounds when it imposed laws on the voters of member countries and stripped their governments of sovereignty. The EU committed suicide when it imposed the UN refugee program on the citizens of these member countries. Prior to that, these citizens paid $trillions to convert to wind and solar based on the global warming hoax. The citizens of these member countries should be furious with the UN, their elected officials and the EU parliament.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


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