Will rail transit come to
Cobb County?
Last
spring the Georgia Legislature passed legislation that allows each county to
ask taxpayers to approve up to a 1 percent sales tax for up to 30 years for
transit. At $140 million per year, over 30 years, a countywide 1 percent sales
tax would be projected to collect more than $4.2 billion.
In
all likelihood, the transit tax will become the funding source for Cobb’s
existing transit service, so let’s assume that the tax might provide as much as
$3.5 billion to build, and to operate and maintain any type of rail transit.
Cobb
could choose to impose the tax on only a portion of the county, but then, after
funding existing transit service, Cobb might only have about $2 billion
available for rail.
A
few years ago, Cobb did transit studies called “Connect Cobb.” When these
studies started, it was presumed that Cobb would build light rail from
Kennesaw, through Cumberland, to Atlanta. The first study, called the
Alternative Analysis, eliminated light rail, because it was projected to cost
between $3.5 billion and $4 billion (in 2013 dollars) to build, and another $25
to 30 million per year to operate and maintain.
Construction
costs and land costs have skyrocketed over the last few years, so the cost in
today’s dollars would likely be closer to $5 billion, just to build it. We
would still need nearly another billion dollars to operate and maintain it for
30 years.
That’s
just for light rail. MARTA-type trains, which is heavy rail, might cost closer
to $7 billion, just to build it.You want rail transit to go all the way to
Acworth? Add another billion dollars-plus.
You
expect south Cobb to vote for this tax? If south Cobb gets nothing more than
the transit they already have without paying an extra 1 percent sales tax for
30 years, why should they agree to pay a tax to subsidize a transit project
that does not serve them at all?
In
addition, if Cobb attempted to perpetrate such a scheme, this would probably
become an economic justice issue. Cobb would likely lose this case in the
courts.
If
Cobb wants to throw billions of dollars at rail or any type of fixed guideway
transit, an economically fair portion of that money is going to have to be
spent on transit needs in south Cobb. So, if Cobb also wanted to extend the
west line of MARTA to Austell, add another billion. And we would still need
more money to operate and maintain all of this.
HB
930 allows up to a 1 percent sales tax. To build, and operate and maintain, all
of the above rail, plus operate and maintain our existing transit service, I
doubt that a 1 percent countywide sales tax for 30 years would cover even half
the cost of rail. If Cobb decides to impose the tax on only a portion of the
county, a 1 percent sales tax might not cover a quarter of the cost.
Bus
Rapid Transit has a bad reputation in Cobb because the second Connect Cobb
study, the Environmental Analysis, concluded that if BRT was built as proposed,
it would make future traffic congestion worse than if Cobb did nothing. My
response was to ask whether Cobb taxpayers and commuters wanted government to
spend $500 million of their tax dollars on a project to make traffic
congestion worse.
If
Connect Cobb had pursued a similar conceptual BRT plan, but designed to improve
overall mobility, it likely would have cost $1.5 billion, but that would still
be less than half the cost of rail. And BRT would have only cost around $10
million per year to operate and maintain, vs. $30 million for rail.
If
Cobb were to pursue a transit package that included BRT, and implemented a 1
percent tax countywide, it would likely raise enough money to
fund a BRT line to Kennesaw, and perhaps Acworth, and also fund a BRT line to
Austell, and also be enough to maintain and expand our existing transit
service.
The
purpose of this column is not to argue for or against an HB 930 tax. I am also
not arguing for or against BRT. I am just trying to provide an objective view
of financial realities. BRT, funded by a 1 percent sales tax, is financially
plausible. Rail is not.
What
about the CSX corridor? Without going through painful details, by the time you
made passenger rail feasible in this corridor, and connected it to MARTA, it
might be just as expensive as building a new MARTA rail line.
Cobb
should avoid leading people to expect that a 1 percent HB 930 sales tax could
fund rail. If we move forward with a plan that will cost billions more than the
HB 930 tax can collect, the shortfall will
have to be paid for with astronomically higher property taxes.
Ron
Sifen’s views are his own and do not represent the opinions of any other group.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
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