More than 40 countries
may cut diplomatic ties with Venezuela. Fine, but would it do any good? By
Andres Oppenheimer, 11/21/18
Venezuelans who oppose President Maduro, shown
protesting his oppressive government in 2016, are planning to protest again in
January as he starts a new six-year term.
Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro may
soon face bad news on the diplomatic front: More than 40 countries are
considering cutting diplomatic relations or reducing their ties with Venezuela starting Jan. 10, when he is scheduled
to start a new six-year term in office.
Colombian President Ivan Duque told the
daily El Tiempo last weekend that, following up on his country’s decision not to recognize the results of
Venezuela’s fraudulent May 20 elections, “We are not going to go through the
charade of maintaining diplomatic relations” with Venezuela after Maduro’s
current term expires.
Similarly, Chilean President Sebastian
Piñera told me in a recent interview that since most of the 14 Latin American
countries that make up the Group of Lima did not recognize the results of
Venezuela’s elections, “We do not recognize the president who emerged from that
election, and we will not recognize Maduro as president of Venezuela.”
Venezuelan opposition sources tell
me that they expect at least 46 countries, including most members of the Group
of Lima and the 28-member European Union to downgrade or sever diplomatic ties
with Venezuela.
Simultaneously, Colombia and four
other South American countries are lobbying European countries to join their
unprecedented joint petition to the International Criminal Court to launch an
investigation into Maduro for alleged crimes against humanity. And the United
States is reportedly preparing to add Venezuela to its list of nations sponsoring
terrorism.
The big question is whether there
will be any practical consequences of a formal decision by these countries to
cut ties with Venezuela. Even Colombia and Chile say that while they will
formally announce a severance of diplomatic ties with Venezuela, they will
maintain consulates and other diplomatic missions there.
“It will be an odd break of
diplomatic ties, because we will maintain a diplomatic representation in
Venezuela,” a senior Latin American diplomat told me this week. “It may be largely
a symbolic gesture for now, but it could lead to stronger measures in the
future.”
For instance, a formal decision to
no longer accept Maduro’s legitimacy as president could set the stage for
countries to later recognize a parallel “legitimate Venezuelan government” led
by the opposition.
Some Venezuelan exile leaders are
lobbying the Trump administration and those of other countries to
simultaneously cut diplomatic ties with Maduro and recognize a caretaker
opposition-led government.
Their plan would go like this: Since
Maduro and his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, would no longer be considered
legitimate leaders once their current terms expire, there would be a power
vacuum. The next in line of succession would be the head of the opposition-controlled
National Assembly.
Venezuela’s National Assembly was
democratically elected in 2015 and is the last remaining democratic institution
in Venezuela. Maduro stripped the Assembly of most of its powers and created a
new Congress to rubber-stamp his decisions. But the international community
could recognize the National Assembly’s president as Venezuela’s legitimate
leader while new elections are convened, supporters of that plan say.
“The most important thing is not
that countries stop recognizing Maduro as a legitimate president, but that they
recognize an opposition-led legitimate government,” one opposition leader told
me.
But many countries would be
reluctant to go that route for fear of opening a diplomatic can of worms. Latin
American diplomats ask: How would we justify having diplomatic ties with Cuba,
which has not had a free election in more than five decades, while severing
ties with Venezuela over this year’s fraudulent elections?
In addition, some diplomats note
that, unlike last year, when more than 150 people died in Venezuela’s street
protests, — there is no sense of urgency in the diplomatic community today that
would justify taking such extreme measures.
For now, the likely decision by many
countries to stop recognizing Maduro as a legitimate president will be a mostly
symbolic announcement.
But if the opposition takes to the
streets in January — as some anti-government parties are planning — to protest
Maduro’s inauguration and the country’s humanitarian crisis, things could
change. There would be a legal base for the next step — international
recognition of a provisional opposition government.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
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