The
Real Reason the Government Wants You to Drive an Electric Car, by Jeff Brown,
2/9/19,
Real
Motivations - Self-driving cars must always be connected to a network. Tesla’s
EVs connect to its network over 4G wireless networks today, which will become
5G wireless networks beginning this year.
Force
for Good - Now, I don’t want to give you the impression that I’m negative on
new technological developments. Far from it. As many of you know, I’ve devoted
my entire adult life studying, working in, and investing in bleeding edge
technology.
Editor’s Note: The
world’s cars are going electric. By some estimates, 125 million electric
vehicles will be on the road by 2030. And governments are going all in to
convince Americans to make the switch. The usual reason given: To protect the
environment.
But that’s not the whole truth. Jeff
Brown, Bill’s go-to tech expert, reveals the real reason governments and
corporations want you to go electric. By now, most consumers are aware of the
growing trend of electric vehicles (EVs).
According to the Paris-based
International Energy Agency (IEA), 125 million electric vehicles will be on the
road by 2030. That’s up from an estimated 3.1 million in 2017. And according to a 2018 survey from the
American Automobile Association (AAA), roughly 20% of Americans are considering
going electric for their next car purchase.
And the adoption of this technology has
been aggressively pushed by governments. In the U.S. alone, government
subsidies for electric vehicles have been estimated as high as $20 billion. But
the push to migrate from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric
vehicles isn’t what most think. There’s a deeper story here…
The most popular motivation used by
both consumers and governments is a simple one… EVs are better for the
environment. They produce less, or no, pollution.
Sadly, this is a logical fallacy.
Taken out of context, yes, an
electric vehicle produces less pollution than an ICE vehicle. Or does it?
The answer lies in a simple question
that is rarely ever asked… where does the electricity come from?
Take a state like California.
According to the California Energy Commission, 61.6% of energy used in the
state comes from coal (fossil fuel), large hydro projects (damages natural
habitats of freshwater rivers and lakes), natural gas (fossil fuel and
California’s largest individual power source), and nuclear energy (radioactive
waste). And only 29% comes from renewable sources, two-thirds of that being
solar and wind.
That means nearly 62% of the
electricity used to power an EV in California comes from fossil fuels and
energy sources that are highly destructive to the natural environment. Surprising, isn’t it?
And California is one of the best
states in the country for generating renewable energy due to its sunny and, in
some places, also windy climate.
Look at a state on the other coast,
New York. The New York Times reports that 94% of its energy
comes from natural gas (37%), nuclear (33%), and large hydro projects (23%).
That’s right, 70% of the electricity
fueling an EV in the state of New York is “burning” carbon or a form of nuclear
power.
My point is that EVs are only as
clean as the energy used to fuel them. So, if saving the environment isn’t the
real motivation for the adoption of EVs, then what is?
As I’ve shown Diary readers
in the past, one of the main advantages is that EVs are less complex vehicles. Consider
this: The average ICE car has 2,000 moving parts. The EV equivalent has just
20. That’s just 1% of an average ICE. Incredible right? As a result, EVs break
down less often and are much cheaper to maintain. This makes them attractive to
both automobile manufacturers and to consumers.
EVs also represent an attractive
opportunity for automotive manufacturers because the market for ICE vehicles is
so flooded. More specifically, car makers hoping to sell a new automobile have
to compete with used cars. After all, a well-maintained used car can still
accomplish the principle task of getting you where you need to go. But it comes
at a significant discount.
In the case of EVs, a fairly new market
for cars, there just aren’t that many used cars on the market. The market for
EVs is pretty much a greenfield opportunity.
It is the opportunity for profit, not
concern for the environment that motivates automakers to pursue EVs.
But what about government motivations
for EVs? What has the incentive been to stimulate this industry? Governments
typically tell the public that the EV subsidies are for environmental reasons.
It’s a simple explanation, but that’s not the whole truth…
Many governments have offered economic
incentives like discounted pricing or tax rebates to encourage consumers to buy
these new EVs. There is certainly a hope that these kinds of incentives will
become a catalyst for domestic corporations to invest in the technology, create
new jobs, and hopefully manufacture these new EVs locally and thus stimulate
the economy. And there is plenty of truth to that, especially in markets that
have existing automobile manufacturing plants. But what if we step back
further, and think even bigger picture?
Consider that the next evolution of EVs
will be self-driving cars. EVs tend to be designed much more like upgradeable
computers than traditional ICE vehicles. Tesla is a perfect example. Software
updates are pushed out toTeslas around the world, several times a year, to
“upgrade” the cars.
Oftentimes, those software updates are
new performance features for the car, like the self-driving functionality.
Why would a government push for the mass
adoption of remotely-connected, self-driving cars? There are some very Orwellian
possibilities that many are not considering.
The government will know the location of
every self-driving car at all times. And with the right authority, a
self-driving car could be rerouted to a government’s choice of location at any
time.
For example, what if someone suspected
of a crime was trying to “drive” out of state? The local government could
simply reroute the car to the nearest police station. And there’s something else…
Consider Waymo, the self-driving
division of Alphabet, the parent company of Google. I always get a kick out of
articles that claim Waymo’s motivation is to become a manufacturer of
self-driving cars…
Google’s motivation is simple: It wants
to collect as much data as possible about consumers and sell that data to
whoever will pay for it. Think about it. According to the U.S. Department of
Transportation, the average American driver spends about an hour a day in a
car.
In a world where cars and taxis drive
themselves, that frees up an hour of time to look at a screen, surf the
internet, watch videos… and you guessed it… look at ads that are served to you.
Google is spending so much time and
money on research and development on autonomous driving technology so that it
can license that technology to car manufacturers in exchange for being able to
retain, and sell, the data that it collects. Plain and simple.
And as I’ve told my readers time and
time again, our lives are about to improve exponentially in the coming years
thanks to new technology. Self-driving electric vehicles are a tool. And like
any tool, they can be used for good… or bad.
Understanding the less obvious
motivations in the world of technology is a critical part of my research
process. It informs better investment recommendations to my readers.
By looking beyond the “official
reasons,” I’m able to better understand the direction of important technology
trends. And now, so can you…
Comments
Electronic Vehicles
are a work in progress. With limited range, these cars might serve as a
commuter car, but not a vacation car or a family car. Self-driving vehicles are
“experimental”. The best car is the Toyota Prius Hybrid introduced in 2000.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody
GA Tea Party Leader
No comments:
Post a Comment