The UK will not leave the EU on October 31, 2019.
But UK voters might have an opportunity to fire their members of Parliament on
December 12, 2019. This election is all about leaving or remaining in the EU.
The new Brexit deadline will be January 31, 2020, by
Jen Kirbyien, 10/28/19.
It’s time to revise the calendars, yet
again: It looks like the new Brexit deadline will be January 31, 2020.
Donald Tusk, the president of the
European Council, said Monday that EU leaders had agreed to the
United Kingdom’s request for a “flextension” until the end of January.
The “flextension” gives the UK the option
to depart the EU earlier on December 1 or January 1 if the UK Parliament can ratify the new
Brexit deal and generally just make a decision on Brexit.
Though UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson
vowed that he would take the UK out of the EU by October 31 “do or die,” the
UK has accepted the delay offer. Johnson had to because the same law that forced Prime Minister Boris
Johnson to ask the European Union for a delay against his wishes also required him to accept a January
31 extension if offered.
In that sense, this news that Brexit is
about to be postponed for the third time is pretty anti-climactic. The EU has
wanted to avoid (and did not want to be blamed for) a costly no-deal Brexit and
all the trade and economic disruption that would likely ensue, so it was
expected to grant a delay. It was not so much a matter of if, but of exactly
how long.
The Brexit legislation the UK needs to
implement before exiting the EU advanced last week, though British lawmakers rejected Johnson’s accelerated
timeline of just
three days to scrutinize the bill.
That would normally be a promising sign
for getting the Brexit legislation done, perhaps even before January. But
Johnson has put that legislation on hold, for now.
Instead, he’s looking to use the extra
time to try to get a general election
on December 12, which
the prime minister argues will break the parliamentary stalemate over Brexit
and give him the chance to return a majority to Parliament that wants to get
his version of Brexit done.
The question now is whether Parliament
will go along with his plan. Because of a 2011 law known as the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a two-thirds majority of members of
Parliament (MPs) must vote in favor of an election. Johnson has tried to call
an election twice before, but the opposition parties have resisted until this
point. They essentially wanted to wait until Johnson was forced to ask for this
extension, thus betraying his promise that he’d rather be “dead in a ditch” than ask for a Brexit delay.
But now, even with a delay, Johnson’s
December election plans are still in doubt. The main opposition Labour Party
sees an election as risky, as Johnson’s party remains more popular — and so
far, it doesn’t look as if Johnson’s broken Brexit promise
will hurt him. (Though ask former Prime Minister
Theresa May how much things can change.)
The pressure is certainly on Labour to
go for an election now. They got the Brexit extension they desired. They’re in
the minority, and there’s no working majority in Parliament. It doesn’t help
that other opposition parties are now angling for an election, including the
Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats, in particular,
have gained popularity over their resistance to Brexit, and they want an
election now so they can still run on a platform of stopping the UK-EU divorce.
That won’t work as well if Brexit happens.
Still, most reports suggest that Labour
will abstain (so,
at least not voting against it). That would still deny Johnson the votes to get
an election.
Which is why the very unlikely partners
of the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, and Johnson might be cooking up an
alternative plan to
get an election by December 9 (a few days earlier than Johnson’s December 12
date). They’re proposing to amend that 2011 act that’s prevented Johnson from
calling elections. New legislation would only require a simple majority, making
it much easier to get an election.
The Brexit “flextension” looks to be
set. But now it’s up to Parliament to decide whether MPs will use this time to
actually debate and pass the Brexit legislation — or to focus on what’s sure to
be a tense, Brexit-centric election campaign.
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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