Friday, June 14, 2024

Zimbabwe Problems 6-14-24

The current Debt to GDP is $284.9%. Inflation is 667.36%. Gold is 24% of its $5B Trade Surplus. Labor Force Participation is 49%. 

Today, Zimbabwe faces a huge spectrum of socio-economic and political challenges ranging from political instability, food shortages, unemployment, international sanctions, plummeting agricultural production, hyperinflation, soaring commodity prices to high volumes of cross-border migration, collapsing social services .

Control of land has long been an issue in Zimbabwe, which became independent in 1980 and was one of the last sub-Saharan countries to do so. In 1965, the white minority issued a Universal Declaration of Independence (UDI) that severed what was then the former colony of Southern Rhodesia from Britain. The white-minority Government of Rhodesia then governed for the next 15 years, a time characterized by an intense armed conflict for control of the country. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), led by Robert Mugabe, finally gained power in 1980 and has governed the country ever since.

Zimbabwe’s worsening social, political, and economic landscape means trouble for the Southern Africa subregion. Conditions for the people of Zimbabwe continue to go from bad to worse. Triple digit inflation shows no signs of slowing.  Over half of the country lives in poverty.  Its corrupt government lurches from disinterest in the population’s pain to rosy projections for growth based on pure fantasy to clumsy interventions like the recent short-lived edict banning banks from lending. 

Politically, the merger of the ruling party and senior military leadership has long been complete, and they have become inextricable from the state itself. But because Zimbabweans, in the form of independent journalists, opposition politicians, and local activists, refuse to give up on their efforts to hold government accountable for its actions, state-sponsored campaigns of repression and political violence continue.

In an effort to give the intimidation a veneer of legality, the country’s leaders are now working to dismantle civil society, pursuing draconian legislation aimed at private, voluntary organizations (PVOs) that would, in the words of a network of mostly African human rights defenders, provide government with “unrestricted power to deregister, target, and harass PVOs deemed critical of the government”.

Embracing irony, the same government that sustains itself with illicit transnational cartels justifies its efforts by pretending they are necessary to meet the requirements of the Financial Action Task Force. The shamelessness is unsurprising, but the PVO legislation is another important indicator that there will be nothing remotely resembling a level playing field as the 2023 elections draw near.

All of these developments, compounded by the economic and social consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns and global disruptions arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have left Zimbawbe’s young people suffering. Finding themselves in the midst of grinding poverty and extraordinarily high unemployment rates, they must also contend with the fact that migration in search of opportunity looks riskier than ever as xenophobia gains strength in South Africa, where young people face their own pressures and some leaders aim to boost their popularity by scapegoating immigrants. Drug use among young people has soared, apparently driven by a nihilistic despair, and their government has neither the policy framework, resources, or will to provide adequate addiction and recovery services. 

https://www.cfr.org/blog/trouble-ahead-zimbabwe

In 2008, the inflation rate accelerated dramatically, from a rate in January of over 100,000% to an estimated rate of over 1,000,000% by May, and nearly 250,000,000% in July. As predicted by the quantity theory of money, this hyperinflation was linked to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe increasing the money supply.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe#:~:text=In%202008%2C%20the%20inflation%20rate,Zimbabwe%20increasing%20the%20money%20supply.

Comments

Zimbabwe needs to pay down its debt, increase its gold mining and let the citizens grow their own food near their biggest rivers.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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