Data Reliability 7-15-24

I use Google to research economic data, history and politics. I rely on data to reach conclusions and use the data I find reliable. Most postings are out-of-date when I look for current data. GDP is a critical measure of the economy of countries and states and I prefer Nominal GDP because it reflects the actual dollar amounts reported to measure the Grose Domestic Product. I prefer reporting GDP by year.  GDP is also reported as “Real GDP” and “PPP”, but this calculation includes inflation and is higher than the actual number recorded. I consider this as obfuscation to obscure and misrepresent the data. I never use “Real GDP”.

There are limits to the Nominal GDP data I find. It includes combined business transactions by government and the private sector.  I need to separate these to see if private sector spending is rising or sinking.  I use government spending and subtract it from Nominal GDP to track private sector spending.

I also like to include the reported Populations of countries and states along with Nominal GDP as a check against reported Per Capita GDP data by dividing GDP by Population.

I find historical economic data useful to show the trends and direction of the data.  I report this by year. It reveals periods of inflation and high taxation due to government overspending.  I expose spending patterns by President.

I find most government websites useless except the Commerce Department where I can find the US Trade Balance history that includes US$ Imports, Exports and Deficits.

The US government uses Fiscal Year to report data and I prefer Calander Year, because it’s less confusing. I believe this obfuscation is intentional. The government doesn’t want the voters to know the data.

I routinely include the web address of postings I find on Goggle. Data updates are slow to missing on Google, so I post updates to data a month or two after the yearend. 

Finding Illegal Migration data is difficult. I believe we have about 20 million Illegal Immigrants living in the US, who migrated between 1980 and 2020. I believe we also have between 12 million and 16 million living in the US who migrated from 2021 to 2024. This includes migration across the Mexican Border, Canadian Border and Direct Air Flights.

The Data I have been reporting in my series of articles on Countries includes:

$Nominal GDP

$Per Capita GDP

Population

$Debt to GDP

%Inflation

%Unemployment

%Labor Force Participation

Land Area sq miles

Arable Land sq miles

% Urban population

% Rural population

$Exports

$Imports

$Trade Balance

$National Debt 

Per Capita GDP is not the average wage or household income. It is simply the result of dividing the GDP by the Population.

The National Debt we use in determining Debt to GDP is the cumulative debt assumed by the government.

Comments

I believe this data is useful to understand what countries are dealing with to stabilize their economies. I am struck by the similarities in the difficulties encountered across the globe. It is clear that Biden’s reduction in US oil production created a global inflation that reaches every country. It is also clear that civil disorder and violent protests are planned attacks on the countries that experience them. I believe that government overspending and taxes need to be reined in to stabilize the economies of many developed countries.

Those who travel to other countries are good resources to add to the picture and refine the information we see from the data. There are limits to the data. I am reminded of the statistician who drowned in a lake with a mean depth of 3 feet.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader