The US Economy is still feeling the effects of our reaction to Good Times and Bad Times. Pendulum Swings occur when Times get Bad. Democrats are Marxists who promise to fix the Bad Stuff, but only made things worse to advance their Marxism.
The Pendulum swings between high-spending Democrats and low-spending Republicans have been going on since 1913, when President Wilson got Congress to pass the Federal Reserve Act and replaced “Free Market Economics” with a “Fabian Socialist Managed Economy”. US Banks had suffered “Bank Panics” and wanted the Federal Government to cover them. The Federal Reserve Act was their answer. The US moved from Tariffs to Permanent Income Taxes mostly paid by the Wealthy to fund the Federal Government Expansion and War Debt.
Pendulum swings are driven by kitchen table economics. Groups of US Citizens want higher wages to off-set US Inflation. US Citizens are responsible for providing their own education, shelter, food, healthcare, transportation and clothing. Paying for these is shared by individuals, families, employers and government. Increases in the cost of each item determines which way the Pendulum swings. It swings to the Left when times are bad and swings to the Right when times are good.
The forerunner for big federal spending was President Teddy Roosevelt who was obsessed with expanding Federal Land and becoming a Colonial Power. Prior to that US “intellectuals” were pondering Karl Marx Theories. The “Communist Manifesto” was published in 1848.
The Federal Reserve Act ushered in the first Pendulum Swing. 1913 to 1945 included World War I 1914-1918, the Great Depression 1929-1939, World War II 1939-1945. US employment was high during wars and low during the Great Depression.
Prior
to 1913, the cost of government was low. In 1913, the US federal debt stood at
approximately $2.9 billion.
US Revenue came from Tariffs that paid off War Debt from the Revolutionary War in 1776-1989, the War of 1812-1814, the Mexican War 1846-1848. The Civil War 1861-1865
The Federal Reserve Act benefitted the Banks, but ushered in decades of Inflation. Socialism attracted the majority of labor union voters, who didn’t have medical insurance or a pension plan. Their jobs in 1913 were dangerous and water-borne illnesses and bacterial infections were rampant. The US economy improved in 1920 and crashed in 1929. Unemployment reached 25%.
World War II ushered in the Second Pendulum Swing.
The Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s devastated the US. President Franklin Roosevelt was elected in 1932 to deal with the Unemployment. This resulted in federal government investments in Hydro-electric Dams and waterways. US manufacturing jobs began to appear in 1939.
In 1939, the US began to supply Military Equipment to the UK. This revived US manufacturing and by 1941 when the US entered World War II, all US manufacturing was converted to support Defense. Men went to war and Women went to war and took defense factory jobs. The US had “full employment” from the 1940s through the 1950s. The US was the primary manufacturing country from 1945 to 1950 and Europe was rebuilding their factories.
Labor union membership in the U.S. peaked in 1954 when almost 35% of the workforce belonged to a union. 27 States have adopted Richt to Work Laws since 1944 and Non-Union Wages are higher than Union Wages. All Wages are based on the Average Union and Non-Union Wages. Wages in Skilled Trades now exceed wages made by college grads with non-occupational degrees.
By the 1960s, Europe had recovered. The US economy remained strong. The US federal debt on June 30, 1960, was approximately $286 billion.
Off-Shoring Manufacturing in the 1990s was the Third Pendulum Swing. In the 1970s, US auto quality declined. In the 1980s, Japanese autos began to take US market share and over-the-top environmental regulations offshored chemical manufacturing. In the 1990s, virtually all other manufacturing began to move off-shore. By 2000, Middle Class Jobs were shrinking. In 2009, Obama presided over Stagflation with little or no improvement in wages and household incomes. The Private Sector Industries were down and struggling. The National Debt moved from $3 trillion to approaching $37 trillion due to $20 trillion spend on Middle Eastern Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and another $10 spent on the Climate Change Hoax and failed “State Building” in Afghanistan and Iraq. Covid-19 costs were $4 trillion and lock-downs further degraded the US private sector economy.
Trump’s
Election in 2016 was the Fourth Pendulum Swing. By 2016, US Voters were
tired of trying to survive in our “Information Age”. The “Service Economy” was
crowded and unstable. Small Family Businesses had been replaced by Large
Franchises. Working Class Minorities were stuck in Fast Food and there were no
manufacturing jobs to go to.
The Pendulum moved to the Right.
The Midterm Elections in 2018 gave the Congress to the Democrats and Trump was attacked with failed Impeachment and Lawsuit attempts. Restoring the US economy was put on hold by the Democrats. The Climate Change Hoax took center stage.
The Biden administration’s 4 years of disasters, open borders, wars in Ukraine and Israel, the illegal migrant invasion, overspending on the Climate Change Hoax and 30% global inflation ended in 2024 with Trump’s reelection. The Pendulum continues to move to the Right.
The 2nd Trump administration began in 2025 with an Agenda to close the border, deport Illegals, end the wars in Ukraine and Israel, reshore manufacturing jobs, downsize government, cut fraud, waste and abuse, modernize government, Drain the Swamp, pay down the National Debt and restore the US economy. Tariffs will begin the return of honest, balanced trade. The Pendulum continues to move to the Right.
Prior to the Pendulum swings
that began in 1913, the US government worked through its priorities with a
common vision.
The Founders rightly identified that the British Parliament had decided to make the British Colonies pay for their endless wars and had stationed the British Army to enforce the Taxes.
The Founders had read the Renaissance Philosophers’ advice to the European Monarchies and used their significant distance from Britain. They concluded that with God on their side, they could create a government that would recognize the rights of its citizens.
The Revolutionary War was a rejection of Big Spending Government, High Taxes and Government Abuse.
The citizens of the British Colonies had been allowed to form their own governments in each of the 13 colonies and knew how to govern. The first permanent English settlement, and thus the first British colony, was established at Jamestown, Virginia, in 1607. The 13 colonies had been governing themselves for 150 years. The colonists had been trained to be soldiers in the colonial militias. The colonists had developed trading partners in Europe and were exporting lumber and food and had an economy. Colonial governments had representatives elected by the citizens of their colonies.
The colonies were involved in the French Indian War and when they fought with the British to win this war. When they won the Revolutionary War in 1883, they would also inherit the conquered French Territory.
In the Treaty of Paris of 1763, Great Britain gained control of all French North American land east of the Mississippi River, along with Canada and the French West Indian islands. This meant they acquired a vast territory, including the Ohio River Valley, an area of approximately 200,000 square miles.
In the Louisiana Purchase in 1802, the US bought land from France for $15 million. The Louisiana Purchase included approximately 828,000 square miles of land. This land purchase, which was made from France in 1803, nearly doubled the size of the United States. In 1802, the population of the United States was estimated to be around 5.6 million.
In 1848, the United States acquired approximately 525,000 square miles of land from Mexico, known as the Mexican Cession. This land encompassed nearly all of present-day California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, along with parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and Kansas. In 1848, with expansion complete, the US government focused on “settlement” of families. The completion of the Transcontinental Railroad in 1869 reduced settlement time and opened commerce from West to East. The US resident population in 1850, according to the seventh decennial census, was 23,191,876,
The Civil War 1860-1865, separated the North from the South over the “Slavery Question”. This was the first time the US government became “bi-polar”. Up to this point the US had been united in a “Common Vision”. In 1860, the population of the United States was 31,443,321. The US offered free land to settlers through the Homestead Act of 1862. The act granted up to 160 acres of public land to anyone who agreed to settle and farm the land for at least five years. The act was passed to encourage westward expansion and economic growth, and it led to millions of acres of land being claimed and settled by individual homesteaders.
In 1865, the Salves were
Freed. Many former slaves remained working on Plantations as “sharecroppers’
and others were free to move North. Now, living under US Law, many former
slaves bought land and owned their farms and homes.
Also in 1865, the Industrial
Revolution had been underway since the 1820s. The Steam Engine was used to
power Railroad Engines and began to be used to power factories. This began the
move from the farm to the cities.
The United States population in 1870, according to the 1870 census, was 38,558,371.
In 1900, the US population was approximately 76.2 million people. The split in the US population had evolved to the rich vs the poor. Over the next 100 years, the poor became the “middle class”. In the 1990s, the US off-shored its manufacturing and the “middle class” became “unemployed”.
In 2016, Donald Trump proposed
to reshore manufacturing and restore the US economy and the voters elected
Trump.
In 2020, Joe Biden offered
“free stuff”, overspent and crashed the US economy.
In 2024 Donald Trump was elected to restore order and jobs and drain the “swamp”.
The big divide now is between Democrats and Republicans. Union leaders continue to support Democrats, but Union members prefer Trump. If Republicans retain the House and Senate in the mid-term election in 2026, Trump will have a chance to complete his task of restoring the US economy. Trump has a “deep bench” of leaders who could continue Republican control by winning the House, Senate and Whitehouse in 2028. Democrats have no leaders and no policy platform.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader