Cost of Deportation 9-9-25

Multiple analyses of mass deportations suggest that removing all undocumented immigrants would cost hundreds of billions to nearly $1 trillion over the course of a decade, and that these estimates do not account for the significant negative impact on the U.S. economy. Current estimates of the undocumented population range from approximately 14 million to 18.6 million people. The specific cost would depend on the number of individuals targeted, the time frame for the operation, and the methods used. 

Estimated direct costs

Several non-partisan and conservative think tanks have produced estimates for the direct costs, which include locating, arresting, detaining, processing, and transporting individuals:

·       American Immigration Council (2024): A single, immediate mass deportation operation could cost at least $315 billion. Attempting to deport 1 million immigrants per year would cost approximately $88 billion annually, reaching nearly $968 billion over a decade.

·       American Action Forum (2015): A study from the center-right economic think tank estimated the direct cost to be $18,214 per person.

·       Penn Wharton Budget Model (2025): An analysis found that a 10-year policy to remove all undocumented immigrants would cost nearly $1 trillion, or roughly $70,236 per deportee on average.

·       Detention and transport: These are among the most expensive components. Studies estimate that constructing and operating the required number of detention facilities could cost tens of billions annually. In 2025, a military-assisted deportation flight was reported to have cost up to $852,000 per trip. 

Broader economic consequences

In addition to the direct costs, mass deportations are projected to cause severe negative economic consequences, such as:

·       Reduced GDP: The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that a 10-year deportation policy could reduce U.S. GDP by 3.3% by 2034. The American Immigration Council projects a loss of 4.2% to 6.8% of annual U.S. GDP.

·       Labor shortages: With an estimated 8.3 million undocumented immigrants in the workforce, a mass deportation would trigger severe labor shortages in industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality. The loss of these workers would likely lead to higher costs for consumers and reduce business profits.

·       Lower tax revenues: Undocumented immigrants pay billions in taxes annually. In 2022, they contributed an estimated $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes, and $25.7 billion to Social Security. Mass deportations would result in a massive loss of this tax revenue.

·       Increased poverty: Removing undocumented family members would reduce median household income and plunge millions of U.S. citizens into poverty. 

Logistical and social challenges

Mass deportations on such a scale would present enormous logistical and social challenges that are difficult to quantify financially:

·       Hiring and training personnel: A large-scale deportation operation would require hiring hundreds of thousands of new government employees, which is likely not feasible in the short term.

·       Court backlogs: The immigration court system, already facing a significant backlog of millions of cases, would be overwhelmed.

·       Impact on mixed-status families: Millions of U.S. citizen children have an undocumented parent. Mass deportations would result in family separations and create significant social and emotional damage. 

How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the United States? 2025 Update

Mar 7, 2025 — A FAIR Research Report | March 2025 * FINDINGS. As of March 2025, FAIR estimates that approximately 18.6 million illegal aliens reside in the United States.

Direct fiscal costs
The American Immigration Council estimates the breakdown for deporting the estimated 13.3 million targeted individuals: 

·       $89.3 billion for arrests.

·       $167.8 billion for mass detention.

·       $34.1 billion for legal processing.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+will+it+cost+to+deport+all+unvetted+illegals+from+the+us

Criminal Illegals:
Based on data reported by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in 2024, approximately 400,000 to 660,000 non-citizens with criminal convictions or pending charges were on ICE dockets. However, there is no reliable estimate of the total number of unauthorized immigrants with criminal records in the U.S. in 2025 due to significant data limitations. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+criminal+illegals+are+estimated+to+be+in+the+us+in+2025

Comments

The total estimated cost of arrests, detention and legal processing is cited above is $291.2 billion.

If there are 500,000 Criminal Illegals in the US and their countries of origin take them back, the cost of “detention” can be lower than estimated.

If there are 18 million Non-Criminal Illegals in the US and most opt for Self-Demporation, the costs can be lower than estimated.

If Congress fixes the H2a Agricultural Worker Visa System, the guest worker system will replace the use of Illegals.

Many costs listed in the March 2025 article above are likely to be lower. 1 million illegals have already opted to “self-deport” for the cost of a Plane Ticket and $1000. Mass Detention costs are also overstated. The additional legal costs of sending bogus findings by “Rogue Democrat Judges need to be added to cover Appeals.

The saving will occur with less crime and more jobs for US citizens.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader