Sun-made Global Warming

New paper finds strong evidence the Sun has controlled climate over the past 11,000 years, not CO2

Posted on November 29, 2014 Written by hockeyschtick.blogspot.com

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…

A paper pub­lished today (Decem­ber, 2014) in Jour­nal of Atmos­pheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds a “strong and sta­ble cor­re­la­tion” between the mil­len­nial vari­a­tions in sunspots and the tem­per­a­ture in Antarc­tica over the past 11,000 years. In stark con­trast, the authors find no strong or sta­ble cor­re­la­tion between tem­per­a­ture and CO2 over that same period.

The authors cor­re­lated recon­structed CO2 lev­els, sunspots, and tem­per­a­tures from ice-core data from Vos­tok Antarc­tica and find

“We find that the vari­a­tions of SSN [sunspot num­ber] and T [tem­per­a­ture] have some com­mon peri­od­ic­i­ties, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The cor­re­la­tions between SSN and T are strong for some inter­mit­tent peri­od­ic­i­ties. How­ever, the wavelet analy­sis demon­strates that the rel­a­tive phase rela­tions between them usu­ally do not hold sta­ble except for the millennium-cycle com­po­nent. The mil­len­nial vari­a­tion of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase rela­tion between them keeps sta­ble nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a con­trast, the cor­re­la­tions between CO2 and T are nei­ther strong nor sta­ble.”

Thus, the well known ~1000 year cli­mate cycle respon­si­ble for the Holocene Cli­mate Opti­mum 6000 to 4000 years ago, the Egypt­ian warm period ~4000 years ago, the Minoan warm period ~3000 years ago, the Roman warm period ~2000 years ago, the Medieval warm period ~1000 years ago, and the cur­rent warm period at present all roughly fall in this same 1000 year sequence of increased solar activ­ity asso­ci­ated with warm periods.

 

 

 

The authors find a lag of 30–40 years between changes in solar activ­ity dri­ving tem­per­a­ture, likely due to the huge ther­mal capac­ity and iner­tia of the oceans. Lead time shown in bot­tom graph of 40 years shows the tem­per­a­ture response fol­low­ing an increase or decrease of solar activ­ity lags by about 40 years. Top graph shows “the anti-phase rela­tion between [solar activ­ity and tem­per­a­ture] keeps them sta­ble nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past.”

The authors find tem­per­a­ture changes lag solar activ­ity changes by ~40 years, which is likely due to the huge heat capac­ity and iner­tia of the oceans. Warm­ing pro­po­nents attempt to dis­miss the Sun’s role in cli­mate change by claim­ing 20th cen­tury solar activ­ity peaked at around 1960 and some­what declined from 1960 lev­els to the end of the 20th cen­tury (and have con­tin­ued to decline in the 21st cen­tury right along with the 18+ year “pause” of global warming).

Firstly, the assump­tion that solar activ­ity peaked in 1960 and declined since is false, since it is nec­es­sary to deter­mine the accu­mu­lated solar energy over mul­ti­ple solar cycles, which is the accu­mu­lated depar­ture from the aver­age num­ber of sunspots over the entire period, which I call the “sunspot inte­gral.” The sunspot inte­gral is plot­ted in blue and shows remark­able cor­rec­tion with global tem­per­a­tures plot­ted in red below. Cor­re­lat­ing sunspot and tem­per­a­ture data with and with­out CO2, we find the sunspot inte­gral explains 95% of tem­per­a­ture change over the past 400 years, and that CO2 had no sig­nif­i­cant influ­ence (also here).

 

Source

Sec­ondly, this paper finds strong evi­dence of a 30–40 year lag between solar activ­ity and tem­per­a­ture response. So what hap­pened ~40 years after the 1960 peak in sunspot activ­ity? Why that just so hap­pens to be when satel­lite mea­sure­ments of global tem­per­a­ture peaked with the 1998 El Nino [which is also dri­ven by solar activ­ity], fol­lowed by the “pause” and cool­ing since.

We have thus shown

• Strong cor­re­la­tion between solar activ­ity and cli­mate over the past 11,000 years of the Holocene
• Strong lack of cor­re­la­tion between CO2 and cli­mate over the past 11,000 years of the Holocene
• Solar activ­ity explains all 6 well-known warm­ing peri­ods that have occurred dur­ing the Holocene, includ­ing the cur­rent warm period
• The 20th cen­tury peak in sunspot activ­ity is asso­ci­ated with a 40 year lag in the peak global temperature
  What more proof do you need that it’s the Sun!
  But wait, there’s more. Please see the two pre­vi­ous posts demon­strat­ing that the alter­nate 33C green­house effect is due to atmos­pheric mass/gravity/pressure, not CO2 or water vapor, phys­i­cal proof & obser­va­tions that water vapor is a strong negative-feedback cool­ing agent, and phys­i­cal proof that CO2 can­not cause any sig­nif­i­cant global warm­ing. All of the above also strongly sug­gests the increase in CO2 lev­els is pri­mar­ily due to ocean out­gassing from warm­ing oceans from the Sun, not from CO2 radia­tive forc­ing warm­ing the oceans, and not pri­mar­ily from man-made CO2 emissions.
  Cor­re­la­tion between solar activ­ity and the local tem­per­a­ture of Antarc­tica dur­ing the past 11,000 years
  X.H. Zhao, X.S. Feng
  • SSN [Sunspot Num­ber] and Vos­tok tem­per­a­ture (T) had com­mon peri­od­ic­i­ties in past 11,000 years.
  • The mil­len­nial vari­a­tions of SSN and T had a strong and sta­ble cor­re­la­tion.
  • The mil­len­nial vari­a­tion of SSN led that of T by 30–40 years.
  • Cor­re­la­tions between CO2 and T were nei­ther strong nor stable.
  Abstract
  The solar impact on the Earth’s cli­mate change is a long topic with intense debates. Based on the recon­structed data of solar sunspot num­ber (SSN), the local tem­per­a­ture in Vos­tok (T), and the atmos­pheric CO2 con­cen­tra­tion data of Dome Con­cor­dia, we inves­ti­gate the peri­od­ic­i­ties of solar activ­ity, the atmos­pheric CO2 and local tem­per­a­ture in the inland Antarc­tica as well as their cor­re­la­tions dur­ing the past 11,000 years before AD 1895. We find that the vari­a­tions of SSN and T have some com­mon peri­od­ic­i­ties, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The cor­re­la­tions between SSN and T are strong for some inter­mit­tent peri­od­ic­i­ties. How­ever, the wavelet analy­sis demon­strates that the rel­a­tive phase rela­tions between them usu­ally do not hold sta­ble except for the millennium-cycle com­po­nent. The mil­len­nial vari­a­tion of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase rela­tion between them keeps sta­ble nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a con­trast, the cor­re­la­tions between CO2 and T are nei­ther strong nor sta­ble. These results indi­cate that solar activ­ity might have poten­tial influ­ences on the long-term change of Vostok’s local cli­mate dur­ing the past 11,000 years before mod­ern industry.
  Related Posts

• UN IPCC: We Pre­dicted Less Antarc­tic Ice and We Have No Idea Why It Is Increasing
• Report: No Global Warm­ing For 215 Months
• West Coast warm­ing linked to nat­u­rally occur­ring changes
• NOAA Report Destroys Global Warm­ing Link To Extreme Weather
• 50,000 dot com
• Cli­ma­tol­o­gist: 30-Year Cold Spell Strikes Earth
  Filed Under: Climate Change
  Source: http://agenda21news.com/