Most people in the US go to other States for job opportunities.
Jobs drive population. Some people move to escape rising living costs. For a
more detailed report, see US Population by State posed on this blog on 1/4/20.
See article below.
Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois, by Justin Fox,
1/9/20, Bloomberg.
The
States that people are leaving. Net Domestic Outmigration from 2010 through
2019
New York 1.4M
California
912.0k
Illinois 865.9k
New Jersey
491.2k
Michigan 266.1k
Pennsylvania
256.7k
Ohio 217.5k
Connecticut
200.3k
Maryland 160.0k
Massachusetts
158.8k
Kansas 107.8k
Louisiana
102.2k
Total 5.0307M
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- New York, California
and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents. Almost 3.2 million more people
left those states for elsewhere in the U.S. than arrived from other states,
from 2010 through 2019, according to population estimates released last week by
the Census Bureau. Nine other states saw net out-migration of more than 100,000
people over that period, but none really came close to the big three.
Thanks to 2 million more births than deaths
and 1 million newcomers from other countries, California’s population still
grew by about 2 million over this period, a gain that trailed only those of
Texas and Florida. New York’s population grew but only slightly, while Illinois
lost an estimated 159,751 people between 2010 and 2019. Yes, these are all big
states, but New York and Illinois ranked second and third in net domestic
migration as percentage of 2010 population, behind only Alaska (California
ranked 13th).
Where are all these people going? The Empire
Center for Public Policy, a conservative Albany think tank, put together some
estimates for New York based on data that the Internal Revenue Service
gleans from tax returns. (The Census Bureau also releases data on
state-to-state migration flows, but those are based on surveys with
sometimes-large margins of error, so the IRS numbers are more reliable if
less complete.) This inspired me to do the same for California and Illinois.
Here are the Empire Center’s numbers for New York:
The adjusted gross income of New York
taxpayers who didn’t migrate averaged $88,940 from 2012 through 2018. Those who
left for Florida, New Jersey, California and Connecticut made more money than
that; those who moved to other states in the top 10 less, in some cases much
less. By far the most affluent group of migrants from New York was the 1,309
taxpayers who moved to Wyoming, who had an average income of $179,014.
Here’s where Californians have been heading. The
adjusted gross income of California taxpayers who didn’t migrate averaged
$84,641, and migrants to all of the top-10 states made less than that. Also
notable in California’s case is that it experienced net inflows from about half
the states, including New York and Illinois. It’s losing residents in huge
numbers to nearby states, but still attracting people from the Northeast and
Midwest.
Finally, here’s where Illinoisans
(Illinoians?) have been going. The adjusted gross income of Illinois taxpayers
who didn’t migrate averaged $78,959. Illinois has been losing high-income
residents (a lot of them retirees, one imagines) to Florida, middle-income
residents to the South and West, and those with lower incomes to neighboring
states. Also, the top two destinations for Illinois migrants are the top two
for the nation as a whole, with Florida first, Texas second.
Domestic migration statistics are frequently
cited as evidence of the failures of blue-state governance, in particular the
higher taxes imposed by states that are losing lots of residents. There’s
something to that — income-tax-free Florida sure is attracting a lot of
affluent people from Illinois and New York, and a recent study of high-income
California taxpayers concluded that a 2012 income tax increase there did in
fact drive some away. But California, Illinois and New York have all
experienced bigger per capita personal income gains than the nation
as a whole since the beginning of 2010, and all saw taxpayers with incomes
below $50,000 overrepresented among the leavers from 2011 through
2018. These departures may indicate failures of governance as well, but
it’s a different set of governance failures, presumably related more to housing
costs, commutes and job opportunities than taxes per se.
There also isn’t much evidence in the IRS data
— yet — of an exodus of high-income taxpayers hit by the
state-and-local-tax-deduction limits imposed by the 2017 tax bill. That
is, the number of taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of $200,000 or more
leaving for other states actually fell in high-tax California, Connecticut,
Illinois, New Jersey and New York from 2017 to 2018, the year the cap went
into effect. Those who ended up with higher tax bills due to the change
generally didn’t find out exactly how much higher until 2019, though, so
it may just be too early to tell.
One last thing I checked was which counties in
New York have been sending the most migrants to other states. My fellow
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen argued this week that in
congressional-redistricting terms the most important population shifts of
recent years have been from rural areas to large metropolitan areas, not from
state to state. Indeed, thanks to babies and immigrants, New York City and most
of its suburbs have gained population over the past decade as the rest of the
state has shrunk. That may be changing, though, as the city in particular has
been seeing accelerating migration to other states. Of those who left New York
state from 2011 to 2012, 49.1% were from the city. From 2017 to
2018, 68.4% were. A lot of those people are just moving to New Jersey. But
it’s not a great sign.
The Climate
Change Scam is coupled for Liberals with Globalism at a time when both have
been discredited.
Coastal
Commies are running the Northeast and West Coast States. They are insisting on
Carbon Dioxide elimination and the elimination of fossil fuels like oil and
natural gas. Part of the global warming hoax is the fanciful notion that the
earth will warm and melt the polar ice and flood the coastlines. This has not
happened and is not likely to happen. UN Agenda 21 started this hoax in 1992
and Europe spent $trillions on compliance.
Coastal
States have always been vulnerable to hurricane damage, but hurricanes are not
increasing. Coastal erosion has always been caused by hurricanes and to a
lesser extent by continual, normal ocean tides. Seawalls have been the
traditional remedy.
The US
Congress has not supported a Carbon Tax and is not likely to support it. The US economy is benefitting from being a
fossil fuel exporter.
Norb
Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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