Togo Problems 7-6-24

Despite a boom in oil production in the 1990s, authoritarianism, corruption, and resource mismanagement have concentrated the benefits among a small elite. These practices have perpetuated income inequality and unbalanced development, such as low public spending on education and health care. 

A coastal country in West Africa, Togo shares its borders with Ghana, Benin and Burkina Faso, and is home to around 8.5 million inhabitants. Togo is making significant progress in its economic development as a logistics and trade hub for the sub-region. According to the latest World Bank report "Women, Business and the Law", the country is also ranked as the leading African reformer in terms of laws for the defense of women's rights.  In addition, Togo has the highest Human Capital Index (HCI) in the UEMOA.        

However, poverty levels are twice as high in rural areas (58.8%) as in urban areas (26.5%). This is caused by the concentration of economic growth in modern sectors and poor access to quality services. Poverty is higher in female-headed households (45.7%) than in male-headed households (45.2%). And women remain the most vulnerable due to lack of economic opportunities, education and healthcare.

Political context: For several years, Togo's political landscape has been dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party, which holds 59 seats (out of 91) in Parliament. The government is led by Prime Minister Victoire Tomegah Dogbe, who heads a 33-member cabinet.

On March 25, 2024, legislators took an important step by adopting a new constitution that provides for the transition from a semi-presidential to a parliamentary system. Under the new text, the President of the Republic will hold ceremonial powers and will be appointed by Parliament for a single 6-year term. Governance of the nation will be entrusted to the President of the Council, a newly established role assigned to the leader of the majority party in the Assembly. This person will have a six-year mandate and will be appointed by the National Assembly. As head of government, the President of the Council guides national policy and appoints civil and military officials. The new law will mark Togo's entry into its Fifth Republic. New legislative and regional elections are scheduled for April 20, 2024.

Economic situation: A sharp increase in public spending has helped stabilize economic growth in the face of the latest shocks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and regional instability. However, vulnerable populations were affected by the rising cost of living, problems linked to access to water and electricity, and the sharp reduction in fiscal space.

Substantial financing needs in a context of tightening borrowing conditions have encouraged the authorities to initiate consolidation measures to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2025, while at the same time implementing an emergency program to address the growing risks of fragility in the Savanes region in the north.

At sector level, industrial activity showed signs of recovery in 2023 after a weak start to the year, with positive contributions from the mining, electricity and manufacturing sectors. In agriculture, weather conditions were conducive to a good harvest for the 2023-2024 season. At sector level, industrial activity showed signs of recovery in 2023 after a weak start to the year, with positive contributions from the mining, electricity and manufacturing sectors. In agriculture, weather conditions were conducive to a good harvest for the 2023-2024 season. 

Growth remained robust in 2023, at an estimated 5.4%, and is expected to slow slightly in 2024 to 5.1% under the impact of fiscal consolidation efforts, weak external demand and regional uncertainty. Poverty is set to decline gradually in 2024 and 2025, and more substantially in 2026, to 36.1%, compared with 42.4% in 2023. The risks of regional instability, financial turbulence and more frequent climatic shocks call for reforms to accelerate growth, resilience and public debt reduction Growth remained robust in 2023, at an estimated 5.4%, and is expected to slow slightly in 2024 to 5.1% under the impact of fiscal consolidation efforts, weak external demand and regional uncertainty. Poverty is set to decline gradually in 2024 and 2025, and more substantially in 2026, to 36.1%, compared with 42.4% in 2023. The risks of regional instability, financial turbulence and more frequent climatic shocks call for reforms to accelerate growth, resilience and public debt reduction

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/togo/overview

Comments

Togo’s Trade Deficit is too high at $13.85B. They also need to increase productivity in agriculture.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader