Thursday, February 12, 2026

GOP Midterm Odds 2-12-26

Based on early 2026 midterm projections and analysis as of early 2026, the odds of the GOP achieving a supermajority of 60 Senate seats or a landslide 240 House seats are considered low. While Republicans are generally favored to retain a narrow Senate majority, early polling indicates potential momentum for Democrats to retake the House.  

Here is a breakdown of the projected 2026 landscape based on available data:

2026 House of Representatives (Goal: 240 Seats)

Current Outlook: As of early 2026, forecasters and prediction markets suggest that Democrats are actually favored to win the House, with early polling showing a 14-point advantage for Democrats in some surveys.

GOP Standing: The Republican majority is facing challenges in swing districts, with 18 key races shifting toward Democrats, leaving the GOP with a tight path to maintain their current, slim majority.

Odds for 240: Achieving 240 seats (a gain of over 20 seats from their 2024 position) would contradict current modeling that suggests a potential loss of seats due to a 55% to 41% generic ballot lead for Democrats. 

2026 Senate (Goal: 60 Seats)

Current Outlook: The 2026 Senate map is favorable for Republicans, who are defending 22 seats compared to 13 for Democrats.

GOP Majority: Prediction markets show a roughly 65–67% chance for Republicans to retain a Senate majority.

Odds for 60: Reaching 60 seats (a filibuster-proof majority) requires flipping roughly 7+ seats, which is considered unlikely given that only a few seats are highly competitive and Democrats are not facing an overwhelmingly difficult map. 

Key Factors Influencing 2026

Midterm Trends: Historically, the party in power (Republicans in 2026) often loses seats in midterm elections.

Economic Factors: A potential 2026 Republican advantage hinges on continued lower prices for groceries and gas, whereas Democrats are expected to focus on social issues and opposition to the administration.

Independent Voters: Early data suggests a significant shift in independent voters away from the Republican party, a key driver for the current Democratic advantage in polling. 

Note: These projections are based on early 2026 data and are subject to significant change as the election cycle progresses.

Based on current prediction markets and early polling data for the 2026 midterms, the odds of Republicans reaching a 240-seat House majority and a 60-seat Senate supermajority are considered very low.

GOP Odds for 240 House Seats 

A 240-seat majority would require Republicans to gain approximately 20-22 seats from their current slim majority.

Market Odds: On PredictIt, the probability of Republicans winning "238 or more" seats is currently estimated at only 3–4%.

Overall Control: Broader markets on Kalshi and Polymarket currently favor Democrats to retake the House with a 77–82% probability.

Early Polling: A Marist Poll shows Democrats holding a 14-point lead (55% to 41%) in the generic congressional ballot, a margin similar to their 2018 "blue wave". 

GOP Odds for 60 Senate Seats 

A 60-seat supermajority would require Republicans to gain 7 seats while defending all 22 of their own seats up for election—a feat considered highly unlikely in the current political climate.

Senate Control: Republicans are currently favored to retain control of the Senate (around 65–67% odds).

Seat Count Predictions: Markets on PredictIt suggest the most likely outcomes are much tighter, such as 50 or 49 seats, rather than a supermajority.

The Map: While the 2026 map is generally viewed as favorable to Republicans because they defend more seats (22) than Democrats (13), the high number of "safe" seats for both parties makes a 7-seat swing toward a 60-seat total extremely difficult. 

Summary of Odds   

Outcome                        Estimated Probability

GOP 240 in House         3-4%

GOP 60 in Senate          Low

GOP retains House        18-22%

GOP retains Senate       65-67%

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+are+the+odds+that+the+gop+get+240+house+and+60+senate+seats+in+the+2026+midterms+google

Comments

Multiple GOP Tax Reduction programs will impact many US voters prior to the November 2026 Midterms.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Gallop Pole 2-12-26

New High of 45% in U.S. Identify as Political Independents

More independents lean Democratic than Republican, giving Democrats edge in party affiliation for first time since 2021, by Jeffrey M. Jones 

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A record-high 45% of U.S. adults identified as political independents in 2025, surpassing the 43% measured in 2014, 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, equal shares of U.S. adults — 27% each — identified as either Democrats or Republicans.

In most years since Gallup began regularly conducting its polls by telephone in 1988, independents have been the largest political group. However, the independent percentage has increased markedly in the past 15 years, typically registering 40% or higher, a level not reached prior to 2011.

The 2025 findings are based on interviews with more than 13,000 U.S. adults throughout the year. In each survey, Gallup asks U.S. adults whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent.

The recent increase in independent identification is partly attributable to younger generations of Americans (millennials and Generation X) continuing to identify as independents at relatively high rates as they have gotten older.

In contrast, older generations of Americans have been less likely to identify as independents over time. Generation Z, like previous generations before them when they were young, identify disproportionately as political independents.

In 2025, majorities of Gen Z adults and millennials identified as political independents, as did more than four in 10 Gen X adults. One-third or less of baby boomers and Silent Generation adults were politically independent.

Party Identification by Birth Cohort, 2025

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?

As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

This split bar chart shows the percentages of U.S. adults in each generation who identify as Republicans, independents or Democrats. For Generation Z, 17% identify as Republican, 56% as independent and 27% as Democrat. Among millennials, 21% identify as Republican, 54% as independent and 24% as Democrat. Generation X is more evenly divided, with 31% Republican, 42% independent and 25% Democrat. Baby boomers show 34% Republican, 33% independent and 32% Democrat. The Silent Generation has the highest Republican identification, at 37%, with 30% independent and 32% Democrat.

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Generation Z (born 1997-2007)

Republican 17%

Independent 56%

Democrat 27%

Millennials (born 1981-1996)

Republican 21%

Independent 54%

Democrat 24% 

Generation X (born 1965-1980)

Republican 31%

Independent 42%

Democrat 25%

Baby boomers (born 1946-1964)

Republican 34%

Independent 33%

Democrat 32%

Silent Generation (born before 1946)

Republican 37%

Independent 30%

Democrat 32%

Based on annual averages of Gallup telephone interview data

The higher rate of political independence also results from younger adults today being more likely than young adults in the past to identify as independents. The 56% of Gen Z adults identifying as independents today compares with 47% of millennials in 2012 and 40% of Gen X adults in 1992.

Democratic-Leaning Independents Give Democrats Edge

Gallup has regularly asked political independents since 1991 whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party.

Last year, more political independents said they lean toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, with the 45% of political independents breaking down into 20% Democratic leaners, 15% Republican leaners and 10% non-leaners. That is a shift from 2024, representing a three-point decline in Republican leaners and a three-point increase in Democratic leaners.

Between 2024 and 2025, identification with both the Republican and Democratic parties fell by one percentage point.

Conservative Lead in Ideology Narrowest Yet

In addition to asking Americans for their party identification and leanings, Gallup asks respondents in each survey to describe their political views using a scale ranging from very liberal to very conservative. As usual, more Americans in 2025 described their views as “very conservative” or “conservative” (35%) than as “very liberal” or “liberal” (28%), with 33% identifying as “moderate.” However, the seven-point conservative advantage over liberals in 2025 is the smallest Gallup has measured in annual averages dating back to 1992. It is only the third time the conservative lead has been less than 10 points.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/700499/new-high-identify-political-independents.aspx

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Voter Turnout 2-12-26

For Immediate Release: Wednesday, April 30, 2025

2024 Presidential Election Voting and Registration Tables Now Available 

APRIL 30, 2025 — In the 2024 presidential election, 73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote and 65.3% (or 154 million people) voted according to new voting and registration tables released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. These data come from the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement for the November 2024 presidential election, which surveyed the civilian noninstitutionalized population in the United States.

The table package shows patterns of voter turnout by race, Hispanic origin, age and other characteristics such as educational attainment and family income.

Highlights: 63.7% of men voted, compared to 66.9% of women.

Voter turnout varied by educational attainment with 82.5% of those with an advanced degree voting, compared to 77.2% of bachelor’s degree holders and 52.5% of high school graduates.

Voting methods also varied, with 39.6% of people voting in person on Election Day, 30.7% voting in person before Election Day, and 29.0% voting by mail.

The Census Bureau has collected voting and registration data since 1964 and has fielded the Voting and Registration Supplement to the CPS every two years. This survey is the most comprehensive data source available on the social and demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections. Examining these characteristics and how they have changed over the years provides a better understanding of the social and demographic characteristics of American voters. For more information on methodology, confidentiality protection, sampling and nonsampling error, and definitions, refer to https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsnov24.pdf.

The estimates presented in this table package may differ from those based on administrative data or exit polls due to factors such as survey nonresponse, vote misreporting and methodological issues related to question wording and survey administration.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-presidential-election-voting-registration-tables.html

Comments

If Voter Turnout and Voter Integrity are high the GOP should be able to retain control of the House and Senate.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Election Integrity 2-12-26

PRESERVING AND PROTECTING THE INTEGRITY OF AMERICAN ELECTIONS

Executive Orders March 25, 2025 

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: 

Section 1.  Purpose and Policy.  Despite pioneering self-government, the United States now fails to enforce basic and necessary election protections employed by modern, developed nations, as well as those still developing.  India and Brazil, for example, are tying voter identification to a biometric database, while the United States largely relies on self-attestation for citizenship.  In tabulating votes, Germany and Canada require use of paper ballots, counted in public by local officials, which substantially reduces the number of disputes as compared to the American patchwork of voting methods that can lead to basic chain-of-custody problems.  Further, while countries like Denmark and Sweden sensibly limit mail-in voting to those unable to vote in person and do not count late-arriving votes regardless of the date of postmark, many American elections now feature mass voting by mail, with many officials accepting ballots without postmarks or those received well after Election Day. 

Free, fair, and honest elections unmarred by fraud, errors, or suspicion are fundamental to maintaining our constitutional Republic.  The right of American citizens to have their votes properly counted and tabulated, without illegal dilution, is vital to determining the rightful winner of an election.


Under the Constitution, State governments must safeguard American elections in compliance with Federal laws that protect Americans’ voting rights and guard against dilution by illegal voting, discrimination, fraud, and other forms of malfeasance and error.  Yet the United States has not adequately enforced Federal election requirements that, for example, prohibit States from counting ballots received after Election Day or prohibit non-citizens from registering to vote.

Federal law establishes a uniform Election Day across the Nation for Federal elections, 2 U.S.C. 7 and 3 U.S.C. 1.  It is the policy of my Administration to enforce those statutes and require that votes be cast and received by the election date established in law.  As the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit recently held in Republican National Committee v. Wetzel (2024), those statutes set “the day by which ballots must be both cast by voters and received by state officials.”  Yet numerous States fail to comply with those laws by counting ballots received after Election Day.  This is like allowing persons who arrive 3 days after Election Day, perhaps after a winner has been declared, to vote in person at a former voting precinct, which would be absurd.  

Several Federal laws, including 18 U.S.C. 1015 and 611, prohibit foreign nationals from registering to vote or voting in Federal elections.  Yet States fail adequately to vet voters’ citizenship, and, in recent years, the Department of Justice has failed to prioritize and devote sufficient resources for enforcement of these provisions.  Even worse, the prior administration actively prevented States from removing aliens from their voter lists.  

Additionally, Federal laws, such as the National Voter Registration Act (Public Law 103-31) and the Help America Vote Act (Public Law 107-252), require States to maintain an accurate and current Statewide list of every legally registered voter in the State.  And the Department of Homeland Security is required to share database information with States upon request so they can fulfill this duty.  See 8 U.S.C. 1373(c).  Maintaining accurate voter registration lists is a fundamental requirement in protecting voters from having their ballots voided or diluted by fraudulent votes. 

Federal law, 52 U.S.C. 30121, prohibits foreign nationals from participating in Federal, State, or local elections by making any contributions or expenditures.  But foreign nationals and non-governmental organizations have taken advantage of loopholes in the law’s interpretation, spending millions of dollars through conduit contributions and ballot-initiative-related expenditures.  This type of foreign interference in our election process undermines the franchise and the right of American citizens to govern their Republic.  

Above all, elections must be honest and worthy of the public trust.  That requires voting methods that produce a voter-verifiable paper record allowing voters to efficiently check their votes to protect against fraud or mistake.  Election-integrity standards must be modified accordingly. It is the policy of my Administration to enforce Federal law and to protect the integrity of our election process.

Sec2.  Enforcing the Citizenship Requirement for Federal Elections.  To enforce the Federal prohibition on foreign nationals voting in Federal elections:

(a)(i) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Election Assistance Commission shall take appropriate action to require, in its national mail voter registration form issued under 52 U.S.C. 20508:

(A)  documentary proof of United States citizenship, consistent with 52 U.S.C. 20508(b)(3); and

(B)  a State or local official to record on the form the type of document that the applicant presented as documentary proof of United States citizenship, including the date of the document’s issuance, the date of the document’s expiration (if any), the office that issued the document, and any unique identification number associated with the document as required by the criteria in 52 U.S.C. 21083(a)(5)(A), while taking appropriate measures to ensure information security.

(ii)  For purposes of subsection (a) of this section, “documentary proof of United States citizenship” shall include a copy of: 

(A)  a United States passport; 

(B)  an identification document compliant with the requirements of the REAL ID Act of 2005 (Public Law 109-13, Div. B) that indicates the applicant is a citizen of the United States; 

(C)  an official military identification card that indicates the applicant is a citizen of the United States; or 

(D)  a valid Federal or State government-issued photo identification if such identification indicates that the applicant is a United States citizen or if such identification is otherwise accompanied by proof of United States citizenship.

(b)  To identify unqualified voters registered in the States:

(i)    the Secretary of Homeland Security shall, consistent with applicable law, ensure that State and local officials have, without the requirement of the payment of a fee, access to appropriate systems for verifying the citizenship or immigration status of individuals registering to vote or who are already registered;

(ii)   the Secretary of State shall take all lawful and appropriate action to make available information from relevant databases to State and local election officials engaged in verifying the citizenship of individuals registering to vote or who are already registered; and 

(iii)  the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the DOGE Administrator, shall review each State’s publicly available voter registration list and available records concerning voter list maintenance activities as required by 52 U.S.C. 20507, alongside Federal immigration databases and State records requested, including through subpoena where necessary and authorized by law, for consistency with Federal requirements. 

(c)  Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Homeland Security shall, consistent with applicable law, provide to the Attorney General complete information on all foreign nationals who have indicated on any immigration form that they have registered or voted in a Federal, State, or local election, and shall also take all appropriate action to submit to relevant State or local election officials such information.

(d)  The head of each Federal voter registration executive department or agency (agency) under the National Voter Registration Act, 52 U.S.C. 20506(a), shall assess citizenship prior to providing a Federal voter registration form to enrollees of public assistance programs.   

(e)  The Attorney General shall prioritize enforcement of 18 U.S.C. 611 and 1015(f) and similar laws that restrict non-citizens from registering to vote or voting, including through use of:

(i)    databases or information maintained by the Department of Homeland Security; 

(ii)   State-issued identification records and driver license databases; and

(iii)  similar records relating to citizenship.

(f)  The Attorney General shall, consistent with applicable laws, coordinate with State attorneys general to assist with State-level review and prosecution of aliens unlawfully registered to vote or casting votes.

Sec3.  Providing Other Assistance to States Verifying Eligibility.  To assist States in determining whether individuals are eligible to register and vote:

(a)  The Commissioner of Social Security shall take all appropriate action to make available the Social Security Number Verification Service, the Death Master File, and any other Federal databases containing relevant information to all State and local election officials engaged in verifying the eligibility of individuals registering to vote or who are already registered.  In determining and taking such action, the Commissioner of Social Security shall ensure compliance with applicable privacy and data security laws and regulations. 

(b)  The Attorney General shall ensure compliance with the requirements of 52 U.S.C. 20507(g).  

(c)  The Attorney General shall take appropriate action with respect to States that fail to comply with the list maintenance requirements of the National Voter Registration Act and the Help America     Vote Act contained in 52 U.S.C. 20507 and 52 U.S.C. 21083.

(d)  The Secretary of Defense shall update the Federal Post Card Application, pursuant to the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, 52 U.S.C. 20301, to require:

(i)   documentary proof of United States citizenship, as defined by section 2(a)(ii) of this order; and

(ii)  proof of eligibility to vote in elections in the State in which the voter is attempting to vote.

Sec4.  Improving the Election Assistance Commission.  
(a)  The Election Assistance Commission shall, pursuant to 52 U.S.C. 21003(b)(3)and 21142(c) and consistent with applicable law, take all appropriate action to cease providing Federal funds to States that do not comply with the Federal laws set forth in 52 U.S.C. 21145, including the requirement in 52 U.S.C. 20505(a)(1) that States accept and use the national mail voter registration form issued pursuant to 52 U.S.C. 20508(a)(1), including any requirement for documentary proof of United States citizenship adopted pursuant to section 2(a)(ii) of this order.

(b)(i) The Election Assistance Commission shall initiate appropriate action to amend the Voluntary Voting System Guidelines 2.0 and issue other appropriate guidance establishing standards for voting systems to protect election integrity.  The amended guidelines and other guidance shall provide that voting systems should not use a ballot in which a vote is contained within a barcode or quick-response code in the vote counting process except where necessary to accommodate individuals with disabilities and should provide a voter-verifiable paper record to prevent fraud or mistake. 

(ii)  Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Election Assistance Commission shall take appropriate action to review and, if appropriate, re-certify voting systems under the new standards established under subsection (b)(i) of this section, and to rescind all previous certifications of voting equipment based on prior standards.  

(c)  Following an audit of Help America Vote Act fund expenditures conducted pursuant to 52 U.S.C. 21142, the Election Assistance Commission shall report any discrepancies or issues with an audited State’s certifications of compliance with Federal law to the Department of Justice for appropriate enforcement action.

(d) The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, consistent with applicable law, shall in considering the provision of funding for State or local election offices or administrators through the Homeland Security Grant Programs, 6 U.S.C. 603 et seq., heavily prioritize compliance with the Voluntary Voting System Guidelines 2.0 developed by the Election Assistance Commission and completion of testing through the Voting System Test Labs accreditation process.

Sec5.  Prosecuting Election Crimes.  To protect the franchise of American citizens and their right to participate in fair and honest elections:

(a)  The Attorney General shall take all appropriate action to enter into information-sharing agreements, to the maximum extent possible, with the chief State election official or multi-member agency of each State.  These agreements shall aim to provide the Department of Justice with detailed information on all suspected violations of State and Federal election laws discovered by State officials, including information on individuals who: 

(i)    registered or voted despite being ineligible or who registered multiple times; 

(ii)   committed election fraud;

(iii)  provided false information on voter registration or other election forms;

(iv)   intimidated or threatened voters or election officials; or 

(v)    otherwise engaged in unlawful conduct to interfere in the election process.

(b)  To the extent that any States are unwilling to enter into such an information sharing agreement or refuse to cooperate in investigations and prosecutions of election crimes, the Attorney General shall: 

(i)   prioritize enforcement of Federal election integrity laws in such States to ensure election integrity given the State’s demonstrated unwillingness to enter into an information-sharing agreement or to cooperate in investigations and prosecutions; and

(ii)  review for potential withholding of grants and other funds that the Department awards and distributes, in the Department’s discretion, to State and local governments for law enforcement and other purposes, as consistent with applicable law.

(c)  The Attorney General shall take all appropriate action to align the Department of Justice’s litigation positions with the purpose and policy of this order.

Sec6.  Improving Security of Voting Systems.  To improve the security of all voting equipment and systems used to cast ballots, tabulate votes, and report results:

(a)  The Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall take all appropriate actions to the extent permitted by 42 U.S.C. 5195c and all other applicable law, so long as the Department of Homeland Security maintains the designation of election infrastructure as critical infrastructure, as defined by 42 U.S.C. 5195c(e), to prevent all non-citizens from being involved in the administration of any Federal election, including by accessing election equipment, ballots, or any other relevant materials used in the conduct of any Federal election.

(b)  The Secretary of Homeland Security shall, in coordination with the Election Assistance Commission and to the maximum extent possible, review and report on the security of all electronic systems used in the voter registration and voting process.  The Secretary of Homeland Security, as the head of the designated Sector Risk Management Agency under 6 U.S.C. 652a, in coordination with the Election Assistance Commission, shall assess the security of all such systems to the extent they are connected to, or integrated into, the Internet and report on the risk of such systems being compromised through malicious software and unauthorized intrusions into the system.  

Sec7.  Compliance with Federal Law Setting the National Election Day.  To achieve full compliance with the Federal laws that set the uniform day for appointing Presidential electors and electing members of Congress:

(a)  The Attorney General shall take all necessary action to enforce 2 U.S.C. 7 and 3 U.S.C. 1 against States that violate these provisions by including absentee or mail-in ballots received after Election Day in the final tabulation of votes for the appointment of Presidential electors and the election of members of the United States Senate and House of Representatives.

(b)  Consistent with 52 U.S.C. 21001(b) and other applicable law, the Election Assistance Commission shall condition any available funding to a State on that State’s compliance with the requirement in 52 U.S.C. 21081(a)(6) that each State adopt uniform and nondiscriminatory standards within that State that define what constitutes a vote and what will be counted as a vote, including that, as prescribed in 2 U.S.C. 7 and 3 U.S.C. 1, there be a uniform and nondiscriminatory ballot receipt deadline of Election Day for all methods of voting, excluding ballots cast in accordance with 52 U.S.C. 20301 et seq., after which no additional votes may be cast.  

Sec8.  Preventing Foreign Interference and Unlawful Use of Federal Funds.  The Attorney General, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, shall prioritize enforcement of 52 U.S.C. 30121 and other appropriate laws to prevent foreign nationals from contributing or donating in United States elections.  The Attorney General shall likewise prioritize enforcement of 31 U.S.C. 1352, which prohibits lobbying by organizations or entities that have received any Federal funds.   

Sec9.  Federal Actions to Address Executive Order 14019.  The heads of all agencies, and the Election Assistance Commission, shall cease all agency actions implementing Executive Order 14019 of March 7, 2021 (Promoting Access to Voting), which was revoked by Executive Order 14148 of on January 20, 2025 (Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions), and, within 90 days of the date of this order, submit to the President, through the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, a report describing compliance with this order.

Sec. 10.  Severability.  If any provision of this order, or the application of any provision to any agency, person, or circumstance, is held to be invalid, the remainder of this order and the application of its provisions to any other agencies, persons, or circumstances shall not be affected thereby.

Sec11.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP, THE WHITE HOUSE, March 25, 2025. 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

 

Jobs Report January 2026 2-11-26

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2026

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed

little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred

in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs.    

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures

labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment

survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.4

million, changed little in January. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the

jobless rate was 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. (See table

A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in January. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), and people who are White (3.7 percent), Black (7.2 percent), Asian (4.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.7 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little in January at 1.8 million but is up by 386,000 from a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.0 percent of all unemployed people in January. (See table A-12.)

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.8 percent, changed little in January. These measures have shown little change over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 453,000 to 4.9 million in January but is up by 410,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

In January, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job decreased by 399,000 to 5.8 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in January. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little at 475,000 in January. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. Payroll employment changed little in 2025 (+15,000 per month on average). (See table B-1. See the note at the end of this news release and table A for more information about the annual benchmark process.)

Health care added 82,000 jobs in January, with gains in ambulatory health care services (+50,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+13,000). Job growth in health care averaged 33,000 per month in 2025.

 Employment in social assistance increased by 42,000 in January, primarily in individual and family services (+38,000).

Construction added 33,000 jobs in January, reflecting an employment gain in nonresidentialspecialty trade contractors (+25,000). Employment in construction was essentially flat in 2025.

In January, federal government employment continued to decline (-34,000) as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer in 2025 came off federal payrolls. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 327,000, or 10.9 percent.

Financial activities employment declined by 22,000 in January and is down by 49,000 since reaching a recent peak in May 2025. Within the industry, insurance carriers and related activities lost 11,000 jobs over the month.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $37.17. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have

increased by 3.7 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $31.95. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in January. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.1 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 15,000, from +56,000 to +41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000, from +50,000 to +48,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02112026.

Norb Leahy Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Education Reform 2-11-26

Based on historical patterns and systems research, it typically takes 2 to 4 years for a new education reform initiative to be fully implemented and operational across a school or district. However, deep-seated, systemic, and sustainable reform—such as comprehensive improvements to school effectiveness—often requires a sustained, multi-year strategy spanning 8 to 12 years.  

Key Findings on Reform Timelines

Initial Implementation (2–4 Years): Consensus among systems researchers suggests that 2 to 4 years is required for a new initiative (e.g., new curriculum, technology integration) to move from adoption to full, consistent implementation.

Sustainability Challenges: Many reforms are abandoned in 2 years or less—before showing impact—due to inadequate planning, lack of teacher professional development, or changing political priorities.

Long-Term Systemic Change (8–12 Years): Successful, enduring improvements (like those studied by McKinsey in global systems) often require 8 to 12 years of consistent, hard work.

Rapid Change Models: While standard reforms take years, "Controlled Rapid Approach" methods exist, though they are rare. Some models, like those in the Georgia education system reform, involved training in the year prior to implementation, with full adoption taking 1–2 years. 

Factors Affecting the Speed of Adoption

"School Culture": Because of rigid organizational structures, change in schools is often gradual and episodic.

Community and Political Buy-in: The success of reform relies on engaging parents, school boards, and community leaders.

Teacher Development: Effective reforms require significant, ongoing professional development and training.

Funding and Resources: Innovation is often dependent on the availability of federal, state, and local funds.

Site Readiness: The "readiness" of a specific school to take on new initiatives plays a major role in the speed of adoption. 

Current Context (2025–2030)

Pandemic Impact: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rapid shift in, and transformation of, many schools between 2020 and 2022.

Future Trends: Predictions suggest that by 2030, the U.S. public education system will become significantly more privatized and regulated, similar to the utilities industry, signaling a long-term shift in the structure of public schools.

Adopting and fully implementing education reform in U.S. public schools is a long-term process that varies significantly based on the scale of the initiative: 

Implementation Timelines

Short-Term Adoption (2–4 Years): Systems researchers generally agree that it takes 2 to 4 years for a new initiative to become fully operational across a school or district.

Operational Maturity (3–5 Years): Putting new school programs into practice often stretches over 3 to 5 years to allow for the gradual adjustment of school cultures and teacher habits.

System-Wide Success (8–12 Years): Successful, sustained school improvement that results in measurable student outcome changes often requires 8 to 12 years of consistent "hard work". 

Historical Implementation Gaps

Cycle of Abandonment: Many reforms have a lifespan of only 1.5 to 4 years, often being abandoned before they are fully implemented due to budget shifts or leadership changes.

Policy to Classroom Delay: Major federal laws, like the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA), can take a decade to "mature" and fully integrate into state and local agency operations.

Decades for Broad Change: Landmark shifts, such as the move toward standards-based reform, began in the early 1980s with the A Nation at Risk report but took nearly 20 years to become federally mandated under No Child Left Behind (2001). 

Barriers to Rapid Reform

Statutory Deadlines: Federal regulations are often bound by a "master calendar rule," which can delay the effect of a finalized rule by an entire year.

Decentralization: Reforms are often implemented unevenly as individual states and school boards have the final say on curriculum and funding. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+long+will+it+take+for+us+public+schools+to+adopt+education+reform+google

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Education Gaps 2-11-26

Based on September 2025 releases of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) (the Nation’s Report Card) assessing early 2024 data, U.S. 12th-grade public school students are scoring at historic lows in reading and math. Nearly half of high school seniors tested below basic levels in math (45%) and about one-third in reading, marking a continued decline in core academic proficiency.  

Key Findings on 2024-2025 Test Results:

Historic Lows: Twelfth-grade reading scores reached their lowest point in the history of the assessment (since 1992), while math scores hit their lowest since 2005.

Wide Achievement Gaps: Performance, particularly for the lowest-achieving students (bottom 10%), has fallen sharply across all demographics and economic statuses.

Long-term Decline: The decline in scores began before the pandemic, with reading scores peaking in 2013-2015.

Performance by School Type: While traditional public school scores dropped, some reports noted that charter school students did not experience the same decline.

Contributing Factors: Experts point to increased chronic absenteeism, high smartphone/social media usage, and declining academic engagement. 

Key Statistics:

Math: Only 33% of 12th graders are considered prepared for college-level math.

Reading: 35% of seniors performed at or above the "proficient" level.

Science: 8th-grade science scores dropped 4 points since 2019. 

The data highlights a significant "five-alarm fire for America's children", with calls for urgent intervention for low-performing students. 

As of 2026, U.S. public school students are facing record-low academic performance, with assessments showing a majority of students are not scoring at grade level in core subjects. 

National Performance Data

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), often called the Nation's Report Card, indicates that academic achievement has fallen to its lowest point in decades: 

12th Grade Math: Only 22% of high school seniors are proficient; 45% scored below the basic level.

12th Grade Reading: Only 35% are proficient, with 32% failing to meet even basic literacy standards.

8th Grade Science: Only 31% of students reached the proficient level.

Middle School Decline: Average scores for 13-year-olds fell 4 points in reading and 9 points in math compared to the 2019–20 school year. 

Key Contributing Factors

Educational reports and experts identify several systemic issues driving these declines: 

Widening Achievement Gap: The performance gap between the highest- and lowest-performing students is at its widest point in history.

Chronic Absenteeism: High rates of student absences since the pandemic continue to hinder academic recovery.

Resource Disparities: While per-pupil spending reached record highs (averaging $17,700 in 2025), significant funding inequities persist between states and districts.

Misaligned Perception: There is a "perception gap" where 90% of parents believe their child is at grade level, despite objective data showing only about one-third actually are. 

Current Initiatives & Outlook

Science of Reading: Over 44 states have passed literacy laws as of early 2026, with 2026 seen as a critical year for the implementation of these science-of-reading reforms.

2026 Testing Cycle: The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is currently administering the 2026 NAEP assessments for 4th and 8th graders between January and March 2026 to track ongoing recovery.

Projected Enrollment: Public school enrollment is projected to continue its decline, dropping to an estimated 46.9 million by 2031 as families increasingly move toward private and charter alternatives.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+public+school+students+not+scoring+at+grade+level+in+2026+google

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader