Tuesday, May 21, 2024

El Salvador Economy 5-21-24

El Salvador has a good President with a 92% approval rating and has good potential. 

Nominal GDP $35.339B per capita GDP $5,558, Population 6,765,753, Debt to GDP 84.90%Ave Wage $5,100/yr, Unemployment is 4.7%, Inflation is 14.7%, Urban 75%, Rural 25%. Land area is 8,124 sq miles. Arable land is 82%. Clean water 88%. 

In 2021, Exports totaled $6.3B and Imports totaled $14.6B, Trade Deficit was $8.2B.

In 2022, Exports totaled $7.47B Imports totaled $16.3B. Trade Deficit was 8.83B.

In 2023, no clear data was available on google.

In 2022, Exports included coffee, cotton, corn (maize), sugarcane, palm, coconut, fruit, tamarind, melon, watermelon, and mango. offshore assembly exports, coffee, sugar, textiles and apparel ($2.5B), gold, ethanol, chemicals, electricity, iron and steel manufactures.

The top exports of El Salvador are Knit T-shirts ($848M), Knit Sweaters ($535M), Electrical Capacitors ($343M), Plastic Lids ($316M), and Raw Sugar ($232M), exporting mostly to United States ($2.87B), Guatemala ($1.21B), Honduras ($1.18B), Nicaragua ($497M), and Costa Rica ($304M).

In 2022 The top imports of El Salvador were Refined Petroleum ($1.87B), Petroleum Gas ($540M), 

Broadcasting Equipment ($400M), Packaged Medicaments ($303M), Light Rubberized Knitted Fabric ($300M), importing mostly from United States ($4.94B), China ($2.61B), Guatemala ($2.03B), 

Mexico ($1.25B), and Honduras ($940M).

Since 2022, El Salvador's government has been really tough on gangs, which has made the country much safer but also led to a lot of arrests of citizens (which is also concerning). Even though this has helped lower gang problems, there are still warnings about crime in certain areas.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Prosperity Requires Investment 5-21-24

Economic history reveals what actions taken by governments and private sector investors have led to prosperity. The first rule is “Don’t run out of cash”. The next rule is “Don’t print money and cause inflation”.

The next rule is “Don’t spend money you don’t have”. The next rule is “Don’t run up a huge debt”. 

There are also some rules worth following. “Make all the goods you need”, “Export more than you Import”, “Anticipate changes in exports and imports” and “Don’t overspend”.

The rise and fall of Rome reveals how the Roman Senate, established in 753BC recognized that Rome’s location and access to the Mediterranean Sea provided access to increasing trade. The Senators were land owners, business owners and military leaders who occupied the legislature. They understood investment in agriculture, trade, infrastructure and a strong military.

Roman Senators were fans of the Greek Empire established by 1100BC and Etruscan Kingdom established in 900BC. They also knew that expanding trade in the Mediterranean was an attainable goal.

In 509BC, began to expand and by 409BC had defeated the Etruscans and tribes living in the hills surrounding Rome and expanded its territory to include more farm land and sea ports. This expansion required Rome to invade their neighbors.

As Rome became wealthier, Germanic tribes began to raid Roman outposts in Northern Italy.

The Gauls, Rome’s Germanic neighbors, sacked and burned Rome in 390 B.C. This was a wake-up call.

The Romans rebounded and eventually gaining control of the entire Italian peninsula by 264 B.C.

This expansion required Rome to end raids by Germanic tribes.

In 264BC, Rome annexed Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica and Sicilian Greek cities, as well as Carthaginian towns and native communities, were conquered.

In 146BC, Rome annexed Sicily and then Sardinia and Corsica. Both sides prepared to renew the struggle.

Carthage acquired a part of Spain and recruited Spanish troops. Rome consolidated its position in Italy by conquering the Gauls, thereby extending its rule northward from the Po River to the Alps.

In 146BC, the Roman army took Carthage, enslaved its remaining 50,000 inhabitants, burned the buildings to the ground, and ritually sowed the site with salt to guarantee that nothing would ever grow there again. Carthaginian territory was annexed as the province of Africa.

From 146BC to 330AD, Rome expanded to include Spain, France and England in the West and parts of the Mediterranean coastal regions of the Middle East and Africa. The Senate allowed Emperors to rule. The size of the Roman Empire was beginning to be to big to maintain. Gold and Silver coins were issued with much less gold and silver. No new expansion limited the Empire’s income.  

In 330 AD Emperor Constantine established the Eastern Empire.

In 410AD, Alaric, king of the Visigoths, sacked Rome and Roman soldiers left Britain, signaling the beginning of the end of the Western Empire.

The rise and fall of Roman Empire from 264BC to 410AD gives good examples of expansion to open trade for opportunity vs expansion for defense against Germanic raiders. It also gives good examples of retreating from territory when you can no longer afford to protect it. 

With the fall of Rome in AD 476, Italy was fragmented into numerous city-states and regional polities, a situation that would remain until the complete unification of the country in 1871.

More recent examples of conquered territory being lost is the defeat of Germany in World War 2 in 1944. After conquering Europe, Germany invaded Russia and imploded for lack of resources.

In 1989, the USSR realized that they could no longer afford to support the satellite countries it had acquired after WW2. In 1991, the USSR dissolved and became the Russian Republic.

The USSR was replaced by 15 independent countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

Yugoslavia became a Socialist Republic in 1945 and boke up in 1992 to form Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro.

Ukraine had been part of Russia but was released in 1991. Since then, the Russian Republic has reannexed Georgia and Crimea and invaded Ukraine in 2021.

Like the Romans, the USSR lacked the funds to maintain its satellite countries. This is the largest current realignment of countries due to unaffordability to take place since the Roman pull-back that began in 410AD.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Monday, May 20, 2024

Honduras Economy 5-20-24

Nominal GDP $33.992B, Per capita GDP $3,245, Population 10,593,798, Debt to GDP 44.50%. Average Wage  $2,748, Inflation 20.23% Unemployment 8.08%, Land area 43,433 sq miles, Arable land 9%. Urban 60%, Rural 40%. Exports $12.3B, Imports $16B, Trade deficit $3.7B.

Exports are led by coffee (26%), Knit T-shirts ($2.1B), Knit Sweaters ($1.57B), Coffee ($1.46B), Insulated Wire ($1.15B), and Palm Oil ($460M)

The country's main imports include petroleum oils (13.5%), medicaments (4.7%), flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel (3%), motor vehicles for the transport of goods (2.8%), and motor cars (2.2%) 

Honduras continues to face longstanding structural challenges, including systemic corruption, political interference in the justice system, insecurity, a very large percentage of the population living in poverty, and lethal attacks against environmental defenders.

Like its fellow countries in Central America, Honduras suffers from high crime and severe poverty in the wake of civil wars in the 1980s. Street gangs roam unchecked in many urban neighborhoods while drug traffickers ply the coasts and plague all levels of the state.

Weak institutions and widespread corruption lead to impunity, empowering the powerful criminal organizations  from drug traffickers to street gangs  that have turned Honduras into Central America's most violent country. It has also been the least politically stable.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

 

 

US Trade Deficits 5-20-24

From the 1940s to1960s, the US had trade surpluses and did most of its own manufacturing in the US. By the 1970s, large US manufacturing companies began to locate final assembly plants overseas to European countries who required it. In the 1980s, it was clear that Japanese autos were superior and Honda and Toyota began to take market share. Their cars got better mileage and were highly reliable and better made. In the 1990s, more manufacturing was off-shored to China and Asia. Japan established manufacturing plants in the US. South Korea weighed in with KIA and Hundi. Steel manufacturing had moved overseas and Chemicals followed. US companies went overseas to save the cost of US regulations, rid themselves of labor unions and lowered their labor costs to keep prices competitive. In 2005, we sold our Cadillacs and bought 2 Toyota Prius Hybrids and we still drive them.

Lowering our trade deficits requires that we return US manufacturing to the US. 

Year    US $Trade Deficit

2024    $-1.0905980T estimate

2023    $-1.0364490T

2022   $-1.1773729T

2021   $-1.0710531T   Biden

2020   $-901.4898B

2019   $-845.7592B

2018   $-870.3584B

2017   $-792,3959B

2016   $-735.3260B   Trump

2015   $-745.0830B

2014   $-735.4823B

2013   $-689.4699B

2012   $-7304663B

2011   $-725.4470B

2010   $-635.3650B

2009   $-503.5830B   Obama

2008   $-816.2000B

2007   $-808.7650B

2006   $-827.9700B

2005   $-772.3742B

2004   $-654.82085B

2003   $-532.3500B

2002   $-468.2620B

2001   $-411.8990B

2000   $-436.7030B   GW Bush

1999   $-328.8200B

1998   $-229.7590B

1997   $-180.5220B

1996   $-170.2130B

1995   $-158.8010B

1994   $-150.6270B

1993   $-115.5680B   Clinton & NAFTA

1992   $-84.5009B

1991   $-66.2498B

1990   $-101.0295B

1989  $-109.3391B   GHW Bush 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

Most of our current $1 trillion plus deficits go to China for Wind and Solar and everything else, but that will stop if Trump is elected in 2024. Wind and Solar are too expensive to construct, repair, and replace. The US needs more natural gas power plants to increase capacity on our electric grid. Our railroads need to stop hauling hazardous waste and need to fix their 200 year old tracks and bridges. Local TV news routinely reports the daily traffic accident report that always includes an overturned 18 wheeler. Trucks need their own highway system. 

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Peru Economy 5-19-24

Nominal GDP $264.636B, Per capita GDP $7,669, Average Wage $4.476, Population 32,325,948, Debt to GDP 32.09%, Inflation 18.12%, Unemployment 3.5%, Exports $56.26B, Imports $51.18B. Trade Surplus $5.08B. Land area 496,225 sq miles, Arable land 19%. Urban 72.3%, Rural 27.7%.

Main Industries are Mining and Refining of Minerals; Steel; Metal Fabrication; Petroleum Extraction and Refining

Exports include minerals, copper, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, manganese ore, textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, manufactures, machinery, services, fruit, grapes, and fish meal.

The most recent exports are led by Copper Ore ($13.5B), Gold ($7.4B), Petroleum Gas ($3.06B), Refined Copper ($2.52B), and Refined Petroleum ($2.18B). The most common destination for the exports of Peru are China ($17.6B), United States ($8.69B), Japan ($2.83B), Canada ($2.69B), and South Korea ($2.62B).

Imports include petroleum/petroleum products, chemicals, plastic, machinery, wheat, corn, soybean products, vehicles, TV sets, front-end loaders, telecom equipment and telephones, paper, cotton, and medicines. A lot of Peru's imports come in from China and the USA.

Peru’s voters are unhappy with their government. Their President has an 8% approval rating and the Legislature is doing a power grab. Crime is a problem and so is inflation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2024/04/02/perus-economy-faces-a-challenging-outlook-in-2024/?sh=31f862eaf122

In 2022, over 400,000 Peruvians left the country without returning, more than in any year since 1990. In just the first half of 2023, another 400,000 left. While some have flown to Spain, a growing number of Peruvians are heading to the United States’ southern border, often after first traveling by air or by foot to Mexico. 

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

 

Producing Electric Power 5-19-24

Hydropower provides very low cost electricity over its long lifetime, despite relatively high upfront construction costs. The global weighted average cost of electricity from hydropower projects in 2018 was US$0.047 per kWh, making it the lowest-cost source of electricity in many markets (IRENA). 

The full cost of electricity from a new natural gas plant is roughly 6.5 cents per KWh, according to a new Hamilton Project paper. This is more than 25 percent less than the full cost of electricity generated from existing coal plants.

A new study puts the generation costs for power from new nuclear plants at 25 to 30 cents per kilowatt-hour—triple current U.S. electricity rates!

Generally speaking, a typical solar system in the U.S. can produce electricity at the cost of $0.06 to $0.08 per kilowatt-hour.

Summary

Hydro is 5 cents per kwh. It used to be 1 cent per kwh. The cost of constructing a hydro plant is high.

Natural Gas is 6 cents per kwh. It used to be 3 cents per kwh

Solar is 6 to 8 cents per kwh. It used to be 14 cents per kwh

Nuclear is 25 to 30 cents per kwh due to unreasonable regulations

Big Wind Turbines in the ocean are too expensive to manufacture, install, repair and replace at $400 million each.

Conclusion: Natural Gas is the best bet and should be added to strengthen the grid..

A run-of-the-mill relatively common combined cycle natural gas plant will have around a 7,000 btu/kwh heat rate - or simply it will consume 7,000 btu of natural gas for every kwh produced. Running a 100 MW plant for 24 hours is 2,400 MWh or 2,400,000 kwh. 7,000 btu/kwh times 2,400,000 kwh is 16,800,000,000 btu.

Wind Power Costs

According to the US EIA, the average wholesale price of wind power in Texas is $26 per megawatt-hour (equivalent to 2.6 cents/kWh). Assuming a 3-MW wind turbine, the installed cost ranges from $2.31 to $2.55 million.

A home wind turbine costs $20,000 to $80,000 for a complete wind power system large enough to meet an average home's full energy demands.

$1,300,000 USD per megawatt. The typical wind turbine is 2-3 MW in power, so most turbines cost in the $2-4 million dollar range. Operation and maintenance runs an additional $42,000-$48,000 per year according to research on wind turbine operational cost.

How much does it cost to build a power plant that runs on wind energy?  While costs can vary, they generally hover around $1 million per MW. The total cost of an average turbine can range from $2.5 million to $4 million, though large offshore turbines can cost tens of millions. The most powerful 12 MW wind turbine costs up to $400 million to manufacture and install.

The same wind plant will, all other factors being equal, generate electricity at a cost of 4.8 cents/kWh in 7.16 m/s (16 mph) winds, 3.6 cents/kWh at 8.08 m/s (18 mph) winds, and 2.6 cents/kWh in 9.32 m/s (20.8 mph) winds. Larger wind farms provide economies of scale.

Solar Panel Costs

A  solar system in the U.S. can produce electricity at the cost of $0.06 to $0.08 per kilowatt-hour. On average, a solar panel will produce about 2 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity daily. That's worth an average of $0.36. Most homes install around 15 solar panels, producing an average of 30 kWh of solar energy daily. That's enough to cover most, if not all, of a typical home's energy consumption.

A 200 4x8 solar panel costs between $220 for 200 Watt and $400 for 240 Watt.

15, 240 watt solar panels at $400 per panel costs $6000 for materials.

The average U.S. residential electricity price rose 6.2%, from 15.04 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2022 to 15.98 cents/kWh in 2023.

In 2002, the average cost of home solar panels in the U.S. was $12.2 per watt (W). In 2022, that price has dropped to $3.82 per watt.

Hazardous Chemicals

CDTe solar panels may be a hazardous due to cadmium. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) panels may be hazardous due to arsenic. Some older silicon solar panels may be hazardous waste for hexavalent chromium coatings. Newer, thin-film solar panels contain CIS/CIGS and may be hazardous due to copper and/or selenium.

Hazardous waste testing on solar panels in the marketplace has indicated that different varieties of solar panels have different metals present in the semiconductor and solder. Some of these metals, like lead and cadmium, are harmful to human health and the environment at high levels.

Workers in the solar energy industry are potentially exposed to a variety of serious hazards, such as arc flashes (which include arc flash burn and blast hazards), electric shock, falls, and thermal burn hazards that can cause injury and death.

These materials that could be dangerous (and toxic) include not just the solar panel's broken glass, but also components containing lead, arsenic, cadmium, and silicon. A careful and professional removal process should be practiced when handling broken solar panels.

Silicon. Silicon is, by far, the most common semiconductor material used in solar cells, representing approximately 95% of the modules sold today.


Solar power generates electricity relatively quietly, hence no noise pollution and making it suitable for locations where noise pollution is an issue. Many rooftops are suitable for commercial solar panel installation. There is no need for a direct grid connection while using solar power because you become your own solar provider.

 

In rural areas, solar energy can generate electricity without connecting to the grid. This approach is more cost-effective as compared to extending long wires that run into distant sites.


Most PV systems can operate for up to 30 years or longer. Photovoltaic cells and panels are made with certain chemicals; developers handle them cautiously to prevent harmful environmental releases. They use heavy metals in manufacturing some PV cell technologies, and when their useful life is over, they know how to cater to them afterward and handle them differently. 

Photovoltaic solar panels capture solar energy using concentrated solar power. The solar system doesn't contribute to increasing air or water pollution because they don't have a chimney or sewage pipe.

Based on our research, homeowners can expect to save an average of $1,530 on annual energy bills by installing a solar system.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Saturday, May 18, 2024

Chile Economy 5-18-24

Nominal GDP 344.4B PercapitaGDP $17,254 Average Wage $7,308/yr, Population 19,458,310, Debt to  GDP 39.41%, Inflation 26.83%, Unemployment 9.7%, 2022 Exports $28.9B, Imports $19.7B, Trade Surplus $9.2B, Land area 291,932 sq miles, Arable land 14.25%, Urban 87%, Rural 23%.

Export goods include mining minerals, copper, agriculture, fishing, forestry and processed foods

Import goods include raw food, Refined Petroleum ($11.5B), Cars ($4.82B), Crude Petroleum ($4.64B), Delivery Trucks ($3.39B), and Petroleum Gas ($2.72B), importing mostly from China ($24.9B), United States ($21.6B), Brazil ($9.17B), Argentina ($5.11B), and Germany ($2.98B).

Chile faces two big challenges in the coming years, one economic and one political. The big economic challenge is to restore growth, which has slowed substantially in the last decade. Productivity growth, which was very fast late in the twentieth century and in the beginning of this century, has also petered out.

In Chile, the majority of mineral mines are in conflict, with indigenous peoples in many cases, who are left to risk their wellbeing to protest against the lithium and copper mining in order to protect their lands and the environment.

Land ownership by indigenous people is common in South America.

https://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/uploads/FactSheet_English_WhoOwnstheLandinLatinAmerica_web.pdf

A total of 2,185,792 people self-identify as Indigenous, equivalent to 12.8% of the country's total population (17,076,076). The Mapuche are the most numerous (almost 1,800,000 people).

The environmental fallout from lithium mining is clear and far-reaching. Massive quantities of fresh water, classified as a precious resource in these arid regions, are diverted for lithium mining operations, fueling the salt flats brine. This leaves local communities and wildlife parched.

If properly evaluated, mining waste can be reused to reextract minerals, provide additional fuel for power plants, supply construction materials, and repair surface and subsurface land structures altered by mining activities themselves.

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are a group of 17 chemical elements considered critical for digitalization and for the energy transition. While called “rare”, they are not in fact rare in the Earth’s crust and can be found in many places. REEs have unique magnetic, optical and electronic properties that make them crucial (and difficult to substitute) for many uses such as wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, LED and LCD screens, hard drives, fiber optic cables, catalysts, steel alloys, hydrogen technologies and all kinds of electric motors for cars, toys or drones. Nevertheless, REEs are not only strategic for wind, solar or electric batteries, but also for defense and aerospace engineering: to produce aircraft, missiles, satellites and communications systems. Indeed, the European Commission’s proposal for the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, published in the spring of 2023, mentions the strategic need for these materials for the green and digital transition as well as for defense and the aerospace industry.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

New US Tariffs on China 5-18-24

So the Chinese EVs scheduled to be made in Mexico that are $12,000 will have US a 102.5% tariff added to the cost and will then cost $24,300, but will also need to comply with US auto regulations and that will add to the price. Solar cells and Computer Chips made in China will have the US tariff increased from 25% to 50%.

I don’t think we buy steel, aluminum and medical equipment from China.  

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration announced plans to slap new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment — an election year move that’s increasing friction between the world’s two largest economies.

The tariffs come in the middle of a heated campaign between President Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, in which both candidates are vying to show who’s tougher on China.

The Chinese government was quick to push back, issuing a statement Tuesday that the tariffs “will seriously affect the atmosphere of bilateral cooperation.” The foreign ministry used the word “bullying.”

The tariffs are unlikely to have much of an inflationary impact because of how they’re structured. Administration officials said they think the tariffs won’t escalate tensions with China, yet they expect China will explore ways to respond to the new taxes on its products. It’s uncertain what the long-term impact on prices could be if the tariffs contribute to a wider trade dispute.

The tariffs are to be phased in over the next three years, with those that take effect in 2024 covering EVs, solar cells, syringes, needles, steel and aluminum and more. There are currently very few EVs from China in the U.S., but officials worry low-priced models made possible by Chinese government subsidies could soon start flooding the U.S. market.

Chinese firms can sell EVs for as little as $12,000. Their solar cell plants and steel and aluminum mills have enough capacity to meet much of the world’s demand, with Chinese officials arguing their production keeps prices low and would aid a transition to the green economy.

Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the tariffs will raise the cost of select Chinese goods and help thwart Beijing’s efforts to dominate the market for emerging technologies in ways that pose risks to U.S. national security and economic stability.

“China is simply too big to play by its own rules,” Brainard told reporters on a Monday call previewing the announcement.

Administration officials have stressed the decision on tariffs was made independently of November’s presidential election. But Brainard noted in her remarks the tariffs would help workers in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two of the battleground states that will decide who wins the election. But China’s commerce ministry said in a statement that the tariffs were “typical political manipulation” as it expressed its “strong dissatisfaction” and pledged to “take resolute measures to defend its rights and interests.”

Under the findings of a four-year review on trade with China, the tax rate on imported Chinese EVs will rise to 102.5% this year, up from total levels of 27.5%. The review was undertaken under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the government to retaliate against trade practices deemed unfair or in violation of global standards.

Under the 301 guidelines, the tariff rate is to double to 50% on solar cell imports this year. Tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products will climb to 25% this year. Computer chip tariffs will double to 50% by 2025.

For lithium-ion EV batteries, tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 25% this year. But for non-EV batteries of the same type, the tariff increase will be implemented in 2026. There are also higher tariffs on ship-to-shore cranes, critical minerals and medical products.

The new tariffs, at least initially, are largely symbolic since they will apply to only about $18 billion in imports. A new analysis by Oxford Economics estimates the tariffs will have a barely noticeable impact on inflation by pushing up inflation by just 0.01%.

The auto industry is still trying to assess the impact of the tariffs. But at present, it appears they could be assessed on only two Chinese-made vehicles, the Polestar 2 luxury EV and potentially Volvo’s S90 luxury gas-electric hybrid midsize sedan.

“We’re still reviewing the tariffs to understand exactly what’s affected and how,” said Russell Datz, spokesman for Volvo, a Swedish brand now under China’s Geely group. A message was left seeking comment from Polestar, which also falls under Geely.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said the U.S. is trampling on the principles of a market economy and international economic and trade rules.“It’s a naked act of bullying,” Wang said.

The Chinese economy has been slowed by the collapse of the country’s real estate market and past coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, prompting Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to jumpstart growth by ramping up production of EVs and other products, making more than the Chinese market can absorb.

This strategy further exacerbates tensions with a U.S. government that claims it’s determined to strengthen its own manufacturing to compete with China, yet avoid a larger conflict.

“China’s factory-led recovery and weak consumption growth, which are translating into excess capacity and an aggressive search for foreign markets, in tandem with the looming U.S. election season add up to a perfect recipe for escalating U.S. trade fractions with China,’’ said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

The Europeans are worried, too. The EU launched an investigation last fall into Chinese subsidies and could impose an import tax on Chinese EVs.

After Xi’s visit to France last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that government-subsidized Chinese EVs and steel “are flooding the European market” and said, “The world cannot absorb China’s surplus production.’’

Biden’s Democratic administration views China, with its subsidies of manufacturing, as trying to globally control the EV and clean-energy sectors, whereas the administration says its own industrial support is geared toward ensuring domestic supplies to help meet U.S. demand.

“We do not seek to have global domination of manufacturing in these sectors, but we believe because these are strategic industries and for the sake of resilience of our supply chains, that we want to make sure that we have healthy and active firms,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.

The tensions go far beyond a trade dispute to deeper questions about who leads the world economy as a seemingly indispensable nation. China’s policies could make the world more dependent on its factories, possibly giving it greater leverage in geopolitics. At the same time, the United States says it’s seeking for countries to operate by the same standards so competition can be fair.

China maintains the tariffs are in violation of the global trade rules the United States originally helped establish through the World Trade Organization. It accuses the U.S. of continuing to politicize trade issues and on Friday said the new tariffs compound the problems caused by tariffs the Trump administration previously put on Chinese goods, which Biden has kept.

Those issues are at the heart of November’s presidential election, with a bitterly divided electorate seemingly united by the idea of getting tough with China. Biden and Trump have overlapping but different strategies.

Biden sees targeted tariffs as needed to defend key industries and workers, while Trump has threatened broad 10% tariffs against all imports from rivals and allies alike.

Biden has staked his presidential legacy on the U.S. pulling ahead of China with its own government investments in factories to make EVs, computer chips and other advanced technologies. “We’ve created $866 billion in private-sector investment nationwide — almost a trillion dollars — historic amounts in such a short time,” Biden said last week in Wisconsin. “And that’s literally creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.”

Trump tells his supporters America is falling further behind China by not betting on oil to keep powering the economy, despite its climate change risks. The ex-president may believe tariffs can change Chinese behavior, but he believes the U.S. will be reliant on China for EV components and solar cells.

“Joe Biden’s economic plan is to make China rich and America poor,” he said at a rally this month in Wisconsin.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c

Comments

It appears that China will not be sending any more money to the Biden family. US consumers will not buy US EVs. New car prices at GM and Ford are too high and not many US consumers will buy these either. If Cuba can restore 50 year old US used cars and trucks, so can we.

From the invention of the “horseless carriage” in the 1880s to The Model T in the 1920s, it took 40 years to introduce the automobile to prominence. The Model T truck gave farmers a vehicle they could use to get their goods to market. Horses were not banned, but continued to be used in rural areas.

From the 1920s to the 1930s more citizens bought the Model Ts and other combustion engine cars. After 1945, the automobile became the preferred mode of transport for families. Trucks joined railroads and barges to transport goods to market.

EVs don’t operate in the cold, charging stations are not available, the life of EV batteries is about 10 years and they are too expensive. If prices ease and battery life-span improves, EVs might find a nitch, but it could take decades. We prefer hybrids with a battery-life of 20 to 30 years.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Colombia Economy 5-17-24

Nominal GDP $363.835B, Per capita GDP $6,976, Population 52,882,000, Debt to GDP 52.52%, Average Wage $4,140, Inflation 20.4% Unemployment 10.2%, Exports $28.7B, Imports $24.8B. Trade Surplus 3.9B. Lane area 440,831 sq miles, Urban 81.74% Rural 18.26%, Arable land is 1.8%. Agricultural land is 38.5%. Labor Force Participation is 75.7% for men and 51.4% for women over 15 years of age. 

Exports crude petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and thermal coal, reaching an export value of $12.4B billion U.S. dollars and $7.65 billion dollars, respectively.

Imports gasolines without tetraethyl lead, reaching an import value of $2.55 billion U.S. dollars. Planes and other aircrafts were the second most imported product by Colombia, accounting for roughly two billion U.S. dollars. Food imports are 30%.

Imports The top imports are Refined Petroleum ($6.26B), Cars ($2.73B), Broadcasting Equipment ($2.64B), Corn ($2.02B), and Packaged Medicaments ($1.77B), importing mostly from United States ($19.4B), China ($18.1B), Brazil ($5.16B), Mexico ($3.6B), and Germany ($2.24B)

The production of hydropower contributes the most, generating over 54 TWh. Simultaneously, fossil fuels such as gas, coal, and oil cumulatively contribute nearly 29 TWh.

Literacy is 99%. Poverty is 36%. Homelessness is 9%. Armed groups continue to commit serious abuses against civilians. Reports of child recruitment and kidnappings increased in 2023. Security forces and judicial authorities have often failed to effectively protect the population, ensure victims' access to justice, and prosecute and dismantle criminal groups. Colombia is also host to 3 million Venezuelan migrants.

Education is occupational and practical. The most popular disciplines offered at universities in Bogota include business administration, economics international business and engineering. Medicine and health sciences are also common disciplines offered.

Bogotá is Colombia's largest economic center and the headquarters of major commercial banks. Because of its status as site of the country's capital, it is home to a number of government agencies, which represent a major component of the city's economy. Major international companies with offices in Bogotá include: Oracle, IBM, PwC, Unilever, Huawei Technologies, Citibank, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Nokia, and others.

Colombia has the third biggest economy in South America, and is sitting on significant deposits of minerals such as oil, gold and natural gas. Bogotá is also the major center for the import and export of goods and is the home of Colombia's tire, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries.

Comments

It looks like the population in Colombia is doing all it can to add to GDP. The goal is to produce everything you consume and maintain a trade surplus. Growing more corn to reduce corn imports and lower gasoline costs in 2025 are needed.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader