5 Big Reasons to Not Count Trump Out,
by Lee Bellinger, Independent Living
News, 10/16/16
Right now as the Sunday Washington
Post poll comes out, Hillary leads the Donald by four points. Anyone can
be forgiven for buying into the consensus: Hillary is destined to win.
I handicap in favor of Trump by 6-12
points because:
1. This reeks of a
“hold-your-nose” Brexit-level election. There is enormous potential
for a sizable shift to Trump as millions of stressed out voters wait until the
last 72 hours to make their agonizing final choice. See precedent for
this below.
2. The Reagan-Carter contest of
1980. Candidate Reagan was then a 68-year old failed “B” actor with
many extreme statements to his name – a renegade agent of change who led a
hostile takeover of the GOP. And widely seen as too extreme to control
nuclear weapons. Remember the Soviets had 20,000+ nukes pointed at us.
We were in a deteriorating hair-trigger situation – a direct U.S.-Soviet
military clash loomed in 1980 as policy drift between the Iran hostage crisis
and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan seemed to be converging. Contrary
to his final high-gloss polish in history books, candidate Reagan got elected
as the desperate choice of a scared electorate.
As the specter of nuclear war hung
over the voters, millions anguished until the very last week before migrating
in huge numbers from Jimmy Carter to Reagan. They chose to install an
elderly, untested, hardline, anti-Soviet hawk. Are voters as desperate to
make a change this year? Real numbers suggest 70%+ want to change
direction, even if they fear Trump.
3. The Telling Mix of Trump’s
Enemies Define This Race. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a consensus.
For all his flaws as a rookie candidate, Trump’s combativeness sheds
valuable light on naked collusion between the mainstream media, federal law
enforcement, the hated Republican establishment, and the Democrats -- all
“cahootenizing” (my word, sorry) together to defeat him. And by
extension, put Hillary and a leftist Supreme Court in place.
4. Corrupt GOP Elitists Now
Sabotaging Trump Court a Brexit-Level Backlash. Even as GOP leaders
deny Trump TV ad buy monies and ground support -- and even as Republican
establishment spokesmen publicly emphasize his every mistake – many in the huge
and un-courted white middle class see all this as confirmation of a “rigged
system.”
5. Trump’s frontal attacks on
“The Rigged System” are likely to make many pro-Hillary voters just stay home.
By their actions, pro-Hillary voters do know just how corrupt and
entrenched the Clinton attack machine is. They said no to her once in
2008 and installed Barack Obama. So expect much weaker turnout numbers
for her than expected -- especially as
the media paint Hillary as a shoo-in. Plus, Trump is not a socially
acceptable choice in many politically correct circles. Fights over him
are stressing millions of friendships -- so huge numbers of voters appear to be
holding back from friends and pollsters.
Yes, Carl Rove now says a Trump
victory is unlikely. And he is certainly a skilled strategist, but it’s
hard to forget Mr. Rove on the eve of the 2012 election – including his
understandable on-air melt-down on Fox News as his projections on the pivotal
state of Ohio went into the tank.
There are other small signs, a
ratings backlash against the NFL that fits with the Trump narrative. Is
there a silent majority in the white vote that’s weary and wary of being cast
as the villain in society’s problems?
The studied ignorance of news
polling underplays this dynamic, as I wrote in Independent Living’s lead story,
“2016: The Year of White Riot?”
The potential for a Brexit-level
Trump upset remains significant.
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