Libya Problems 6-13-24

Nine years after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi, Libya continues to struggle to end its violent conflict and build state institutions. External actors have exacerbated Libya’s problems by funneling money and weapons to proxies that have put personal interests above those of the Libyan people. U.N. efforts to broker a lasting peace have not yet succeeded, overshadowed by competing peace conferences sponsored by various foreign governments. Meanwhile, Libya’s borders remain porous, particularly in the southern Fezzan, facilitating an increase in trafficking and smuggling of illicit materials, including weapons. 

At the subnational level, many local conflicts reflect long-standing feuds between various factions, tribes, and ethnic groups. Though Libya’s national conflict has stalled in recent months, prospects for a political solution are complicated by the country’s deep political and tribal divides.

https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/12/current-situation-libya

Libya has struggled to rebuild state institutions since the ouster and subsequent death of former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in October 2011. Libya’s transitional government ceded authority to the newly elected [ General National Congress (GNC) in July 2012, but the GNC faced numerous challenges over the next two years, including the September 2012 attack by Islamist militants on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and the spread of the Islamic State and other armed groups throughout the country.

In May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar launched Operation Dignity, a campaign conducted by the Libyan National Army (LNA) to attack Islamist militant groups across eastern Libya, including in Benghazi. To counter this movement, Islamist militants and armed groups—including Ansar al-Sharia— formed a coalition called Libya Dawn. Eventually, fighting broke out at Tripoli’s international airport between the Libya Dawn coalition, which controlled Tripoli and much of western Libya, and the Dignity coalition, which controlled parts of Cyrenaica and Benghazi in eastern Libya, escalating the conflict into a full-fledged civil war.

The battle for control over Libya crosses tribal, regional, political, and even religious lines. Each coalition has created governing institutions and named military chiefs—and each has faced internal fragmentation and division. In an effort to find a resolution to the conflict and create a unity government, then-UN Special Envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon, followed by Martin Kobler, facilitated a series of talks between the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR)—based in Libya’s east and a key supporter of Haftar—and the Tripoli-based GNC. The talks resulted in the creation of the Libyan Political Agreement and the UN-supported Government of National Accord (GNA) in December 2015. However, the GNA faced obstacles to creating a stable, unified government in Libya.

Taking advantage of the widespread political instability, armed Islamist groups, including Ansar al-Sharia—the terrorist group allegedly responsible for the attack on the U.S. consulate in 2012—and the Islamic State, have used the country as a hub to coordinate broader regional violence, further complicating efforts to create a unity government. After seizing territory in Benghazi, Derna, and Ajdabiya, the Islamic State’s power in Libya peaked in 2016 when it captured the coastal city of Sirte—formerly the group’s most significant stronghold outside of Syria and Iraq. While in control, its members committed numerous human rights abuses for which they now face trial in Libya. In July 2018, Haftar announced that the LNA had recaptured the city of Derna, the last outpost of the Islamic State militants in eastern Libya. However, the group continues to operate throughout the country.

Though the Islamic State was largely defeated in Libya in 2016, the GNA and HoR remained divided on a path to unification. In August 2018, violence in Tripoli ended the relative calm that had been maintained for over a year. However, the UN quickly brokered a September 2018 cease-fire between the involved militias.

https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/civil-war-libya

Comments

The reduction of Islamic Terror in Libya in the Trump years suggests that defunding Iran worked. The resurgence of Islamic Terror in Libya during the Biden years suggests that re-funding Iran is the reason for the resurgence of Islamic Terror in Libya and elsewhere in Africa. The UN undermines any effort to eliminate Islamic Terror.

Libya is dependent on refined petroleum. 80% of its exports are refined petroleum. The pending reduction of oil prices in 2025 will affect crude oil producers, but will also reduce the price of gasoline.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader