Friday, September 20, 2024

Business Failure 9-20-24

The number of businesses that fail each year varies by year and by the business's age: 

  • 2023: 48% of businesses failed in their fifth year 
  • 2022: 42.7% of businesses closed in their fourth year 
  • 2021: 37.9% of businesses failed 
  • 2020: 31.3% of businesses failed 
  • 2018: 20.6% of new businesses closed in their first year 
  • First year: 20.4% of businesses fail in their first year 
  • First five years: 49.4% of businesses fail 
  • First ten years: 65.3% of businesses fail 

The average annual rate of business failure from 2019 to 2023 is 12.1%. 

The failure rate for businesses can vary depending on the industry. For example, the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting industry has a lower failure rate than the average. 

According to the Small Business Administration (SBA), 20% of new businesses fail in their first year, and the failure rate increases with each year: 

  • First year: 20% of businesses fail 
  • Second year: 30% of businesses fail 
  • Fifth year: 50% of businesses fail 
  • Tenth year: 70% of businesses fail 
  • Fifteen years: 25% of businesses fail

Some common reasons for small business failure include:

  • Lack of market demand
  • Poor financial management
  • Strong competition
  • Failure to adapt to changing market conditions
  • Planning issues
  • Insufficient capital
  • Inexperienced management 

SBA 7(a) loans: Variable rates range from 11.50% to 15.00%, while fixed rates range from 13.50% to 16.50%. 

SBA 504 loans: Interest rates range from 6.28% to 6.59% for 10 to 25 year terms. 

Small business failure rates: According to Zippia, 21.9% of small businesses fail in their first year, 31.8% in their second year, and 39.7% in their third year. The average survival rate for new firms is only two years, and 81% fail within ten years.

Comments

New start up companies do better when they do the planning themselves and pay as they go. Small minority-owned restaurants with smart owners make their own Strategic Plans and focus on capturing revenue early.  They pay as they go.  The closure of the large restaurant chain “fern bars” will result in more family-owned restaurant opportunities if we can restore the US economy. There would be “strings: attached to the $50,000 bribe offered by Kamala Harris.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Oil Import 9-20-24

The United States imports oil and gas from many countries, including: 

  • Canada: The primary source of imported petroleum, with Canada supplying 61% of the U.S.'s crude oil imports in 2021. 
  • Mexico: The second largest source of imported petroleum, supplying 10% of the U.S.'s crude oil imports in 2021. 
  • Saudi Arabia: The third largest source of imported petroleum, supplying 6% of the U.S.'s crude oil imports in 2021. 
  • Iraq: A source of imported petroleum. 
  • Colombia: A source of imported petroleum. 
  • Russia: A source of imported petroleum, supplying 3% of the U.S.'s crude oil imports in 2021. 
  • Nigeria: A source of imported petroleum. 
  • Venezuela: A source of imported petroleum. 

The U.S. has built strong ties with neighboring exporters Canada and Mexico to avoid overdependence on OPEC and OPEC+ members.  

In 2020, the United States became a net exporter of petroleum for the first time since at least 1949.1 In 2022, total petroleum exports were about 9.52 million barrels per day (b/d) and total petroleum imports were about 8.33 million b/d, making the United States an annual net total petroleum exporter for the third year in a row. Total petroleum net exports were about 1.19 million b/d in 2022. Also in 2022, the United States produced2 about 20.08 million b/d of petroleum and consumed3 about 20.01 million b/d. Although U.S. annual total petroleum exports were greater than total petroleum imports in 2020, 2021, and 2022, the United States still imported some crude oil and petroleum products from other countries to help to supply domestic demand for petroleum and to supply international markets. The United States remained a net crude oil importer in 2022, importing about 6.28 million b/d of crude oil and exporting about 3.58 million b/d. Some of the crude oil that the U.S. imports is refined by U.S. refineries into petroleum products—such as gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuel, and jet fuel—that the U.S. later exports. Also, some of imported petroleum may be stored and later exported.

US Oil imports by year went down from 2018 to 2019 and went back up in 2020 to 2021.

Year Imports in Billion Barrels per Day

2021 2.23155

2020 2.15027

2019 2.4823

2018 2.8355

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

US Trade Deficit

This Trade Deficit update includes data from Jan-Jun 2021. The US trade deficit went out of control in 2021 and 2023. We need to produce everything we consume.

Year   $ Billions   

2024 -1135.1740 est

2023 -1717.3880  

2022 -1177.3729

2021 -1078.0531

2020   -977.0561

2019   -850.9174

2018   -870.3584

2017   -792.3960

2016   -735.3260

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

Comments

The US consumes 20 billion BBD and produces 13 billion BBD each 2024. We need to increase oil production by 7 BBD to reach 20 BBD to become energy independent and dominant in natural gas exports. The US Trade Balance has not been updated since June 2024.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Democrat Agenda 9-19-24

 The real needs of the American people were not considered when the Democrats took over in 2021. They blew $3.2 trillion on the Climate Change Hoax and created cumulative global inflation at 35%. Democrats focus on a scam. They pretend that they want to help the people, but they never do. The people they target can only be helped by themselves and their families. 

Democrats focus on low impact targets like childcare that is mostly done by grandmas and other family members. They want to give away free stuff. They wanted everybody to be indoctrinated in school and want to bail out student loans. They want to pretend that abortion isn’t murder. They want to empty our prisons and let criminals re-offend. They want Illegals to vote for Democrats. They want to end the Free Market Economic System. They are Communists who want to decimate the US economy.

Each person is primarily responsible for themselves.  Each person has free-will and need to decide how to help themselves.  No politicians can help them.  All that politicians are supposed to do is support the Private Sector Economy, so that people can function and provide for their own food and shelter.  

Democrats reject the fact that people are primarily responsible for themselves and their actions. The people are continually tricked into electing the wrong politicians. The voters in Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba and Gaza at some point elected the wrong politicians and are suffering the consequences. It is up to them to vote these Marxists out of office. Voters need to by wary of politicians promising free stuff. It’s too late for the Chinese. Their US sponsored economic expansion that began in the 1970s has succeeded and China has effectively crushes political opposition. N Korea is the posterchild for crushing political opposition.

Government bribes with up-front cash are doomed to fail. 

The $25,000 gift to new home buyers will end in another mortgage melt down disaster. During the Great Recession, the housing market collapsed, causing close to 10 million Americans to be displaced. In 2008, 3.1 million Americans filed for foreclosure. 

The $50,000 tax credit for business will end in more business failures. 48% of US businesses failed in their 5th year. 50% of SBA fended businesses fail in their 5th year.

Student loan forgiveness scam can be assumed if Democrats win in 2024. The Student Loan program should have limited interest to 3% and confined to occupational courses. Instead, it set interest at 6% and included courses that were not useful to employers.

Underwriting Day Care will increase the cost of daycare. The cost in Day Care Centers ranges from $5,496 per year in Mississippi to $16,549 in Massachusetts. In the US, there are 12 million children are enrolled in a Day Care Center. Most daycare is provided by grandmas and family members. This is another benefit for upper-income moms living in cities.

If Democrats are elected, more wars will break out. China will invade Taiwan and Russia will nuke Ukraine.

The US Department of Education will be returned to the Federal Government to continue to indoctrinate students to become “Social Activists with Woke, DEI and Trans agendas.

If Democrats are elected, free abortion on demand will be approved as a Federal Policy. The Supreme Court had no federal law that defined when life began, because Congress wouldn’t touch it. Se they sent it to the States under the 10th Amendment so voters could decide. Democrats don’t like voters deciding.

If Democrats are elected, the Federal Government will take the National Debt to $50 trillion and the interest on the Debt will reach $2 trillion a year.

Illegals will not be deported and will continue to increase unvetted illegals to increase US crime and mayhem.

If Democrats are elected, criminals will continue to have free-reign with no Prosecution of crimes and No Bail policies. US prisons will be empty.

Democrats will continue the march toward Communism under UN Agenda 21. This requires the total collapse of the US Economy.

Democrats elevate special interest groups on a search for “victims” to become Democrat voters. Their minority base is being eroded. They want to increase illegal immigration to restore their minority base. If Democrats are elected, they will continue to use protests to disrupt traffic, commercial and residential areas and college campuses. Democrats will continue to refuse to prosecute criminals and will allow them to accelerate “smash and grab” thefts that encourage business closures.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


Republican Agenda 9-19-24

Republicans are focused on high-impact targets, like lowering energy costs, reducing unnecessary federal spending to reduce inflation, returning affordability, ending wars, returning to the US Constitution and restoring the rule of law. 

Republicans will cut Federal Spending by $2 trillion and lower the Annual Federal Budget back to $4 trillion. They will make these cuts from foreign aid and ending wars using total economic isolation for Bad Actors like Iran, N Korea and Russia.. Congress will trim support for UN activities and useless Grants for unnecessary Agenda 21 transportation plans aimed promoting biking and removing cars. 

Trump will close the US border and deport the unvetted illegals who arrived since 2021, restore remain in Mexico and finish the border wall.

Trump will re-open drilling in Anwar and Federal Lands and resume building necessary pipelines for Oil and Natural Gas. Republicans will cut Corporate Taxes and Individual Income Taxes to restore jobs and affordability.    

Trump will end the EV mandates and end the EV subsidies. He will put the consumers back in charge to make their own decisions on what they buy.

Trump will restore US energy independence and will add $Billions per year to US energy exports. Trump will support necessary infrastructure to increase US exports.

Trump will use “reciprocal trade” and impose tariffs on imports to match the tariffs these countries impose on US import goods.

Trump will lower the cost of energy and impose sanctions on Iran and Russia to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars.

Trump will resume his plan to eliminate Islamic Terrorist groups and Drug Cartels. Trump will support the ending the attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Al Qaeda in Syria Houthis in Yemen and ISIS.

Trump will resume starving the government of Iran to end their financial support to all terror organizations.

Trump will cut foreign aid to countries who refuse to allow their illegals to be returned. Trump will impose higher tariffs on countries who are Bad Actors, like China and Venezuela.

Trump will target tax cuts to benefit the lower 50% of US workers. He will lower Business Taxes to allow for price reductions and eliminate tax on tips.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Achievement Oriented Managers 9-18-24

Achievement Motivation can be identified by the number and scope of a manager’s accomplishments. I confirmed my preferred style by taking a “personality styles” test that identified strong achievers v friendly helpers v logical thinkers.  We use all of these behaviors, but we usually have a preference. My Meyers-Briggs results were ENTJ, Extrovert, Intuitive, Thinking and Judging. My Inner-directed v other-directed test confirmed my Inner-directedness.  My DISC test showed high dominance, high inducement, low steadiness and middle compliance. My high dominance indicated my preference to lead. My high inducement indicated credibility. My low steadiness suggested that I would not be happy doing mundane tasks. My middle compliance indicated that I didn’t want to be micro-managed. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need places “Self-Actualization” at the top of Maslow’s pyramid and so did I Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need places “Self-Actualization” at the top of Maslow’s pyramid and so did I

My SIMA evaluation predicted that I would end up running my own Consulting Business. SIMA identified the key to success as “doing what you’re good at and love to do.

I chose to work in manufacturing because it added value. I chose to work in Personnel, because US manufacturing was struggling in 1953 with hostile unions that were created by Marxists and had been taken over by the Mafia. I was 10 years old when I read a front-page story about a Labor Union President being blown up in a car bombing. I asked my uncles how that happened and they all said “Mafia”. That’s when I started thinking about being a Personnel Director to improve employee relations and make unions unnecessary. 

I always found out what companies needed before I joined them. My first job was with United Way in St. Louis Mo as a Campaign Division Director for St. Charles County. It was the fastest growing county in the US in 1965. In the interview I learned that my boss was concerned that they might pull out of the Metro United Way. I achieved 125% of goal in 1965 and 1966. My St. Charles Campaign Chairman for 1966 told me that nobody wanted to be the next Chairman. I asked if they would consider consolidating into the Metro structure and he said yes. I asked my boss to call my St Charles Chairman and work out the transition.  I had just received an offer to enter Personnel at a local manufacturing company. I got to break records and eliminate my job. I also got to know St. Charles County. I founded the St Charles County Counsel of Homeowners Associations in 1968. We had 300 subdivisions and 68,000 homes. 

I joined Kearney National as a Personnel Generalist in 1966 and quickly learned recruiting and compensation, I was tapped to join a committee to do financial analysis with the VP Finance of Dyson Kistner, the holding company and the CFO of Kearney National. I learned that Kearney had found a compatible company in Atlanta. I suggested that they buy it and close the St. Louis Plant to get rid of the Teamsters. They agreed. I told them I was not planning on making the move. Our Advertising Manager had a friend at Monsanto and referred me to him. He had a Compensation Job in the Textile Division.

I took the job at Monsanto in 1968. They were keeping the Oil Chemical & Atomic Worker Union from organizing their plants and that required that we keep our pay ahead of OCAW. I learned a lot about maintaining a “Union Free” environment. Monsanto was moving their joint venture company Chemstrand to Monsanto headquarters and had an opening in Compensation. I coordinated with Corporate Compensation on pay actions and policies and converted the 9-factor job evaluation plan to the Monsanto plan. I was offered a promotion and a 30% increase to move to the Division Sales Office at the Empire State Building in Manhattan NY. I turned it down.

In 1971, I took a Personnel Program Coordinator job with Washington University Medical School to establish the personnel function at the Medical Campus and head up a project to automate their Personnel Records. I was also tasked to work with a committee to develop an affirmative action plan. I was co-investigator on a $10 million basic Improvement grant from NIH to add a cage washing facility to the animal research lab and AALAS certify 90 Black Animal Caretakers. We received the grant and I was elect Education Chair for AALAS and had to give a paper at their convention. I had lots of help. The Animal Lab Director was happy to coordinate the AALAS certification training.

I was interested in Washington U because I heard that the Unions were going to try to organize the colleges and universities. I was not surprise when I received a petition from NLRB to hold an election for 90 Black housekeeping employees who signed cards for the SEU, the Service Employees Union. I immediately responded and asked for their LM2 financial report. They sent it along with a janitor contract SEU had. Our pay rates were higher. Our Housekeeping Employees kept bacteria down in our 3 hospital complex. I Met with the University Executives and their Lawyer to explain what I had. The Vice Chancellor for Medical Affairs asked me what the employees should do. I said: “They should not join the union, annually.” Everybody laughed. Chancellor Danforth then approved and I scheduled my first meeting with the Housekeeping Employees. We met weekly. In the 3rd meeting I mentioned that sometimes employees join unions because their supervisor doesn’t respect them. One older guy in the back row said” “Got that right”. I said, “Thank You”. I immediately met with their supervisor and his manager. The supervisor fixed it. In my next meeting, it was all smiles. I scheduled to Business Manager to meet with them and they liked him too. We won with 80% of the vote.

In 1972, I was offered a promotion to Personnel Director for Washington U. I turned it down. I recommended the current Assistant Director. I offered to take the Assistant Director spot to keep my projects plus handling the Unions and Compensation on the Main Campus. Chancellor Danforth approved. In 1973 I added a local survey to the Compensation System, I wrote the Job Descriptions and the Compensation Manual. I finished the Automation project.  President Nixon had imposed a 5.5% cap on wage increases. I drafted the Compensation Plan to comply. The Main Campus Unions vote to decertify the Union. By 1974, I had accomplished more than I had planned . The Personnel Director was retiring.  I recommended they consider giving this job to the Affirmative Action Officer, she had just completed her Law Degree. I returned to manufacturing with Schwan Foods in Salina Kansas.

In 1975, I joined Schwan foods as Personnel Manager for manufacturing plants in Salina KS, Hutchison KS and West Union Iowa and the Transportation Depot in Salina. We served 1400 employees in Salina and were the largest employer. I had 30 employes doing personnel, accounting and administrative work.  I wrote the job descriptions and installed a 9-factor job evaluation plan. I took the APT Test with my staff and we approved it for use as a selection tool and employee development tool. We were automating manufacturing and I wanted to automated office functions. We moved our annual Company Picnic to the plant site and hired carnival rides.

I was offered the Personnel Director job in Marshall MN in 1975 and turned it down. I wanted to keep my projects and my family was happy in Salina. I wanted to build a custom PC with rate-of-rise sensors to monitor our Ammonia Refrigeration System. I wanted Plant Security reduced to 1 Guard in a vehicle outside and 1 guard monitoring the PC system 24/7. I hired a Data Processing Pro to work with Corporate Data Processing in Marshall MN. I replace time-cards and door keys with Rusco Cards. I worked with the Consulting Engineer who was designing automating Sauce, Cheese and Meat applicators. We added space to the Maintenance Department and fabricated our own applicators.

In 1976, The Salina Plant built a float for the bi-centennial parade and won first prize. We also sponsored a food booth at the celebration in the park. We ran radio commercials announcing our progress in automation. We ran an ad in the Salina High School Yearbook. We had a 4-hour shift for students who maintained a B average.

In 1977, we established an employee development process using the APT Test as a base-line and my Training Supervisor worked with employees one-to-one to improve areas they wanted to improve. We added the DISC and Meyers Briggs test and used them for selection and development.  I designed a weighted performance appraisal and we added cash awards for high performance. I tasked my Employee Relations Supervisor with writing the Employee Handbook. I had established an ASPA Chapter with 40 companies to provide monthly meetings for Personnel staffs and an annual wage survey.  In 1978, I was tapped by ASPA to serve as ASPA Director for Kansas. 

By 1979, my projects were complete. Automation took our annual Revenue from $150 million to $650 million. The Ammonia Refrigeration sensors resulted in a $100,000 per year insurance premium reduction. All promotions were filled from within the workforce with few exceptions. We observed a No Layoff policy. Profit Sharing was 10% of pay per year and vested in 10 years. We held Company Picnics in the Summer and Company Dinner Dances in Winter for all employees in all locations. The Driver-Salesmen were provided with a refrigerated truck paid on commission. Their wives took orders from customers from home and relayed them to their husbands. It was a “family-oriented company.

I received a call from the Personnel Manager from Rickel Manufacturing. He was moving to a Personnel job in Missouri and wanted to know if I was interested in replacing him. I knew they had the UAW and I was interested.

In 1979, I joined Rickel as Corporate Personnel Manager. The staff was great. Rickel manufactured custom applicators used to fertilize crops. I recruited some engineers to automate the Applicators, cut costs and reduced union support. We prepared for a strike and lined up metal manufacturing contractors to continue production. We received 100 invalid grievances and let them pile up. I made phone calls and identified most of the companies who delt with our UAW Local 710 group and published the list and sent it out to these companies. Local 710 was a 4-state territory. One company wanted to coordinate meetings to harass the UAW team and I approved.

In 1980, we were approaching contract negotiations and moved these to a hotel.

In 1981, we had a few meetings. The UAW then failed to schedule meetings. I was tapped to write business articles for Kansas Business News. We continued to reduce costs and improve productivity.

In 1982 the Local 710 UAW President called me at home. He wanted to horse-trade our 100 grievances and I wanted to move them to arbitration where they would be judged as frivolous. 

In late 1982, the Salina Journal announced the addition of another ag equipment plant and they published their rates of pay. They were higher than ours at Rickel. I pre-notified the Local 710 President and implemented the wage increases to match those published in the Salina Journal.. This resulted a Decertification Petition being distributed by one of our own Union Reps. The Local 710 President filed a disclaimer and Rickel became “union free”. The ag economy had need weak and we knew the Japanese were about to dump ag equipment on the US. We contacted a broker to our main competitor Ag Chem to see if they would be interested in acquiring Rickel. They jumped at it because we held the patent on the 3-wheel design. We sold Rickel to Ag Chem in January 1983.  

Saline County wanted me to contract to provide a wage survey for counties in Kansas. I signed up and started that project in January 1983.

Hayes Microcomputer called me to join them in Atlanta. I knew the guy from Hayes from his days as a Personnel Manager in Salina. My wife and I met for dinner with Dennis Hayes in Atlanta. The next day I interviewed at the Hayes plant and my wife looked at houses in Dunwoody close to the Dental Hygiene School with the real estate agent. I finally finished my project for Saline County in March 1983 and drove to Atlanta to join Hayes. I resigned as ASPA Director for Kansas and Business Columnist for Kansas Business News.

In 1983, I joined Hayes and began working on my projects and was named Manager of Human Resources in late 1983.  Hayes was a 100 employee $35M company that had developed the PC Modem. Hayes needed to grow rapidly and they needed large company systems. They had a good small Personnel staff. I needed accurate wage survey data. The AEA Survey was National, but there was no reliable local data. I founded the Metro Atlanta High Tech Personnel Association to produce a reliable annual wage survey for electronics companies. MAHTPA had 40 member companies. I wrote the survey and produced the reports. MAHTPA had monthly meetings for Personnel Staffs. While I was developing our wage structures, the CWA began to distribute leaflets. I proposed an immediate 25 cent per hour increase in wages and that stopped the union organizing. I positioned the wages and salaries according to the surveys and the next raises were larger and resulted in some promotions.  We had purchased the best equipment for circuit board production. The trade schools offered electronics assembly certificates. The labor market had a good supply of technicians and engineers.  We staffed up and began hiring 100 employees per month.

In 1984, I established a Medical Plan Trust to cancelled the Insured Plan. I modified coverage to include outpatient addiction treatment. We hired a claims processor and expanded the number of Nurses to provide case management. My Nurse Manager ran it. I had my staff prepare a policy manual. We had to locate in separate buildings that included a manufacturing plane, an engineering building and a Headquarters building.  Revenue reached $200M and headcount reached 1000 employees.  I was sponsored by Hayes to complete a Fellowship in Strategic Studies at WBSI, Western Behavioral Science Institute. It was a 2 year program over the internet. I was given a DEC Rainbow PC to connect to New Jersey Institute of Technology. I got a box of books every month and we met in La Jolla CA for a week each year. I graduated in 1986. 

In 1985, We established an ESOP, Employee Stock Ownership Plan and the large company systems and staffing were complete. Again, I accomplished more than I had anticipated and Hayes was established as the primary PC Modem.

In 1986, I joined Electromagnetic Sciences Inc. as Personnel Manager. EMS had 300 employees and Revenue was $35M. The Reagan Military build-up was underway. EMS had designed and manufactured the Beam-forming network for the Discus Military communications satellite. EMS was a successful Military Research Subcontractor that included manufacturing of what they designed. EMS also did subcontract work on the electronics for Rockwell on the Hellfire missile. We had an Antenna Range, a Machine Shop, a Materials Lab, a Clean Room, Electronics was surface-mount. We developed Computer Integrated Manufacturing and ran the Milling Machine from the CAD. We designed and built the Aegis Missile System.

EMS had also established LXE, a Subsidiary that developed bar-code reading for warehouses. Bids were coming in for both groups.

I led a Personnel Staff of 8. I recruited I Sr Rep to handle LXE and Engineering recruiting and 1 Sr Rep to handle EMS hourly recruiting I had 1 Sr Rep to handle compensation and 1 Sr Rep to handle benefits. I added nurse case management to the medical trust plan administrator, added a “gate-keeper” for addiction treatment, I kept medical plan costs at $150/month and kept the employee premium low. I replaced the Pension Plan with an Age-Weighted Retirement Plan. I maintained the 401K plan.  I served as HR Chair for the American Electronics Association Board from1986 to 1996 and held monthly meetings for local members. I was tapped to serve as AEA Chair for Manufacturing and wrote the ISO-9000 Quality Manual. I wrote the AEA Position Paper rejecting Hilliary-care. I served as an IEEE Chair and presented programs at their conventions. I was tapped to write a column in Computer Currents.

By 1987 EMS had Revenue of $100M and 600 employees.

By 1988 EMS had Revenue of $150M and 900 employees. 

By 1990 EMS had Revenue of $200M and 1000 employees.  

By 1993 the Reagan Military Build-up had been completed and growth stabilized.

By 2011 EMS had Revenue of $290M when it was sold to Honeywell.

I left EMS in 1993 to open NTL Consulting. I was invited to attend the EMS 25th anniversary dinner in late 1993. I operated my consulting practice from 1993 to 2017 and served 46 companies including Rockwell, Boeing and John Deer. I served Scientific Atlanta, Peachtree Doors and Windows and Scientific Research Corp.  I served continually at Fire Arms Training Systems, Venture Engineering and American Signal Co.

I have been impressed with the Technical and Managerial Talent I worked with and feel blessed that we had an economy from 1965 to 2017. I got do everything I wanted to do. I certainly got to prune back the Union Movement at Kearney, Monsanto, Washington U, Rickel and Hayes.

I sense that we could re-shore manufacturing back to the US and will be writing what we need to do to succeed in restoring the US economy..

Comments

I was fortunate to be able to work at age 14 as a musician. This enabled me to pay 100% of my high school and college costs. This was weighted highly by employers and it gave me an edge in landing by earlier jobs. Going to work part time at an early age was part of my education. I recommend this to strategy to offer a balance to school work.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Good Management 9-18-24

Good management requires credibility. Employees need to know that their managers know what they are doing. Good managers need to understand the operations they are supervising and the tools and methods needed to improve productivity. Good managers should be driven by achievement. These achievements can include meeting production and shipping schedules, properly matching parts purchasing to production schedules, properly inspecting incoming parts and ensuring that assembly is performed properly.  Managers are usually required to train employees to use new tools and methods. The establishment of Lean Management that required the formation of teams and classes in mainframe access can take weeks and requires certified trainers. Teams evaluate current processes and develop better processes. They eliminate processes that have become obsolete. 

 Selection of Good Managers requires that they have the right temperament, work experience and are likely to love what they do.  All Managers are unique and should rely on their strengths. The type of business determines the type of Manager needed. Warehouse Managers should have warehouse management experience. Restaurant Managers do better if they regard their employees as family. Happy employees provide an inviting atmosphere. I adopted treating my own staffs as family and it worked in my Personnel Departments. I also encouraged my staffs to shower employees with respect. I injected humor constantly and my past employees told me that was the most fun job they ever held. These were employees who worked very hard and loved it.  I always viewed employees as independent agents who were free to be themselves. I never micromanaged them. I treated them as adults to encourage them to be adults. I was flexible. When they identified problems, I would project lead them to solutions.

US Manufacturing has been hollowed out since the 1990s when off-shoring began. If we intend to re-shore manufacturing, we need to prepare to design our manufacturing processes to include automation and modern management techniques.

The quality of US manufacturing managers is mixed. At companies that required and implemented automation, the complexity increased, but the results were better.

At companies where quality suffered, making corrections are needed. Strategic Plans require that Corporate Boards of Directors understand the current state of the business. Boeing lost sight of the need to keep Engineering close to Manufacturing. Their push to increase deliveries to drive revenue created this problem. Now Airbus is the leading manufacturer of commercial aircraft.

GM and Ford should have ignored the Federal Mandate to convert to EVs without solving their performance problems. Now these companies are facing higher costs and lower revenues. Consumers are not buying EVs because the Price is too high.

The Price of the new Apple I-Phone 16 Pro Max 1TB is $1,599. The average monthly Cell Phone Service bill is $144. The price of the Cell Phone Watch is $25 and is the best solution to connecting kids with their moms. Addiction to Social Media is a problem. Cell Phones for doing business is required. AI implementation in the Cloud requires that the US builds 1000 new natural gas power plants and dozens of new nuclear power plants. Consumers have no money and neither do the Poser Companies.

Employees know that the quality of the Management is worse than before. DEI needs to be ignored in re-forming Boards of Directors. It should require prior executive experience in their companies and industries, an accurate understanding of the US economy, close monitoring of company operations, through understanding of technical capabilities, a good lawyer and lot of common sense.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Current US Economy 9-17-24

The current US economy is bad and is in transition. The stock market is marking time, waiting for a lower Fed Discount Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is 5.5% and is what the Fed charges banks for money lent to the banks from the Fed. It is also reported as 5.33% and is what banks are required to charge other banks for overnight loans. The Fed is expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate to 5.25%. 

The current Home Mortgage rate for a 15-year fixed rate home loan is 5.696%

The current Home Mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate home loan is 6.982%. That is 1.732% higher than the 5.25% Fed Funds Rate.

The current Average New Car Auto Loan Interest rate is 6.84%

The current Average Used Car Loan interest rate is 12.01%

The current Average Credit Card interest rate is 20.78%. The average rate being charged is 27% because low FICO score consumers have higher credit card balances.

Loan rates are generally lower for consumers with a high FICO score and are generally higher for consumers with a low FICO score.

In 2005, the interest rate on a Home Equity Loan was 3%.

In 2020, the interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate home loan was 3.38%

In 2016 the average rent in the US was $1164

In 2017 the average rent in the US was $1359

In 2018 the average rent in the US was $1025

In 2019, the average rent in the US was $1435

In 2020, the average rent in the US was $2100

In 2021, the average rent in the US was $1843

In 2022, the average rent in the US was $2053

In 2023, the average rent in the US went from $2100 in January to $2200 in May and $2000 in December.

In 2024, the average rent in the US went from $2000 in January to $2150 in July and is at $2100 in September

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/united-states/

Comments

Rent costs tended to be higher in Summer months in 2023 and 2024. Most apartment living is in big cities, where rent costs are higher.

The monthly mortgage payment for a $240,000 home is $1594 for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, lower than the average rent cost of $2100.

Federal Government spending is out of control. The US National Debt is $35.27 trillion. Interest payment on the federal debt is 3.3% and it grew to $1 trillion per year in 2024.

In 2021, federal revenue was $4.016 trillion. Spending was $6.818 trillion. The deficit was $2.772 trillion. The National Debt grew to $30.5 trillion.

In 2022, federal revenue was $4.9 trillion.     Spending was $6.13 trillion.   The deficit was 1.23 trillion. The National Debt grew to $30.928 trillion.  

In 2023 federal revenue was $4.44 trillion.     Spending was $6.14 trillion.   The deficit was $1.7 trillion.  The National Debt grew to $33.17 trillion.

In 2024 federal revenue was $4.39 trillion.     Spending was $6.29 trillion    The deficit was $1.9 trillion   The National Debt grew to $35.27 trillion

The unnecessary $2 trillion per year being spent by the Federal Government needs to be cut to bring s pending back to $4 trillion. The US needs to close the borders and send 20,000 Illegals back to their home countries. US jobs need to increase by lowering corporate taxes, increasing Oil and natural gas production and re-shoring manufacturing. US Voting should re restricted to US Citizens only. US affordability needs to be restored by decreasing Income Taxes for all earning less than $50,000 per year.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Debt Collection Scams 9-17-24

Renters are the most vulnerable to being caught in Debt Collection Scams. Renters who are leaving their Apartments need to find out what their exit charges are and resolve these before leaving the apartment leasing office when they turn in their keys.  If they don’t, they will certainly have their debt sent to a Debt Collection Agency. They will find out that the Debt Collectors have charged 7% per month on their unpaid balance.  For a $1000 balance, this will add $70 per month to the first month, so the unpaid balance becomes $1070 to charge the next months another 7% bringing the new unpaid balance to $1145.  Your unpaid balance will increase by 84% every year. Collection Agencies have a financial incentive to not call you. They would rather run your balance up over a year or two. You old apartment leasing office can cancel the Collection Agency, but they won’t. 

Debt collection agencies can use a variety of illegal and unethical tactics, including:  

Withholding information: Debt collectors must provide information about the creditor, the amount owed, and the process for disputing the debt. 

Threatening you:  Debt collectors cannot threaten to arrest you, suspend your driver's license, or report you to immigration authorities. 

Asking for personal information: Debt collectors cannot ask for your Social Security number, bank account information, or other sensitive financial information. 

Falsely claiming a debt: Debt collectors cannot claim you owe a debt that you don't recognize, or inflate the amount of an existing debt. 

Using unconventional payment methods: Debt collectors cannot request payment by cryptocurrency, iTunes gift cards, prepaid cards, or wire transfers. 

Spoofing caller ID: Debt collectors cannot manipulate caller ID information to make it appear as though the call is coming from a legitimate agency. 

Pretending to be a government official: Debt collectors cannot pretend to be an attorney or from the government. 

If you receive a suspicious call, you can report it to the FTC or the NCDOJ's Consumer Protection Division. You can also request a validation notice from the debt collector, which should be an official letter that details your debt. 

Comments

Cash-strapped renters may be tempted to avoid paying final payments to their landlords, but that would be a big mistake. If they don’t  pay their final payments, a $1000 payment could turn into a $7000 bill.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader