North Korea

We’ve learned some lessons from past wars and have a list of things we do to avert war. These includes peace through strength and the use of sanctions used to weaken the economies of bad actors.

In the case of North Korea, we had to get Kim Jong Un to consider abandoning his multi-generational centerpiece nuclear ambitions. Kim made a mistake by threatening the US and its neighbors. He likely used this to solidify his position as the new leader and ensure his cult status, but this backfired into an opportunity.

We imposed sanctions to dry up North Korea’s cash. We also used US economic leverage to enlist China, North Korea’s sole sponsor and protector. Kim Jong Un had to act, because the economic sanctions were severe enough to end his ability to pay the military that keeps him in power.

Kim now has an opportunity to make a historic change in the direction of North Korea to become economically successful and more prosperous. Kim is already established as the North Korean leader and will win even more support from his 25 million citizens if he makes this change.

North Korea really never needed to protect themselves, because China would always do that. For decades, North Korea quietly played “The Mouse that Roared”, using nuclear capability to extort cash from the US.

China should recognize this change as positive for them.  North Korea would be free to engage in trade in the region and their population would not be a starving threat to China’s borders. North Korea will follow China’s model as a dictatorship practicing state-owned capitalism.

Kim should sell his nuclear material and offensive military equipment to China. He should retain his defensive weapons and his border. He needs to keep tight military control through all the phases of dismantling his offensive missile bases. He needs to manage public opinion to get support from the population and maintain their loyalty to him.  If he can complete this transition, he will be able to have sanctions end after US inspections.

Once sanctions have been removed, Kim will be able to ramp up economic activity and engage in trade to fill his coffers with cash to keep investing in mining, production and trade deals. If this occurs, Kim may be able to formally end the Korean War by signing a treaty with South Korea.  This should allow him to redistribute his conventional weapons from the border.

He may still maintain tight border controls and tight visa controls until his transition is complete. What he does after that will depend on how much political capital he ends up with and what his options are. He may still keep tight control over the entire North Korean population. Mao Zedong died in 1976 and it took China many decades and good fortune to become an economically successful capitalist dictatorship.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader