Election results will not be finalized on 11-5-24. Swing States are causing this problem. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will not be able to publish their Presidential Election Results on 11-5-24. They don’t start counting their early voter ballots until 11-5-24. Arizona will likely be delayed due to late drop-off ballots. Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and N Carolina will have similar problems.
Pennsylvania
A critical swing state, Pennsylvania is not permitted to process mail ballots until Election Day begins, causing significant delays. The initial results will likely show Trump leading based on in-person votes, but that margin may narrow as mail ballots are counted. A recent law requires counties to announce the number of uncounted mail ballots by midnight on election night to increase transparency and counter potential misinformation.
Wisconsin
With similar ballot processing rules to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin cannot count mail-in ballots until Election Day. Major cities, like Milwaukee, centralize ballot processing, resulting in substantial vote counts being released in batches, often after polls close. In 2020, an early morning release of absentee ballots in Milwaukee dramatically shifted the results, leading Trump and his supporters to allege fraud. A similar reporting pattern could occur this year as mail ballots favor Harris.
Arizona
Mail-in voting remains highly popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters casting ballots early in 2020. Election officials can process and tabulate these ballots upon receipt, but results will be withheld until an hour after polls close. Votes dropped off on Election Day – often a significant portion – can take days to count, which may initially favor Harris before trending toward Trump as Election Day ballots are tallied. Late-arriving mail ballots could again shift results back toward Harris over subsequent days.
The other Swing States may not be able to publish their Presidential Election Results on 11-5-24 for various reasons including
Michigan
For the first time, Michigan has implemented early in-person voting and now allows larger jurisdictions to process mail ballots up to eight days before Election Day. This should expedite results, reducing the chance of a "red mirage," like in 2020, when initial results favored Trump before mail-in ballots shifted the lead to Biden. Smaller jurisdictions can begin processing ballots only the day before Nov. 5, so close margins may still create delays.
Georgia
Georgia anticipates high early in-person turnout, with up to 70% of ballots expected to be cast before Election Day. While absentee ballots can be processed in advance, counting only begins on Election Day. Under state law, all early votes are to be reported by 8 p.m. ET. Overseas and military ballots, which could impact a close race, will be counted if they arrive within three days. Officials expect to complete the count by midnight, but the final outcome could hinge on these additional ballots.
Nevada
Recent rule changes in Nevada allow officials to begin processing and counting mail ballots early. While in-person early votes can be counted starting at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day, the state’s acceptance of late-arriving mail ballots – if postmarked by Nov. 5 and received within four days – could delay final results. These late ballots typically favor Democrats, which may lead to a shift toward Harris post-Election Day.
North Carolina
North Carolina processes mail ballots ahead of Election Day, meaning the first results will reflect early mail and in-person voting. Election Day ballots will follow, likely tightening the initial Harris lead as more votes are counted. Absentee ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 will be counted during a 10-day canvassing period, meaning a close race might not be resolved for a week or more.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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