Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Missile Deterrence 8-28-25

As of late August 2025, Ukraine has not yet begun using the newly approved U.S. Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAMs), but it may use them soon against targets inside Ukraine. The first ERAMs are expected to arrive within six weeks of the August 23 approval. The use of ERAMs for strikes inside Russia remains uncertain and likely requires separate U.S. approval.  

Status of ERAM missiles

·       Approval: On August 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump approved the sale of 3,350 ERAMs to Ukraine, a deal largely funded by European nations.

·       Delivery: The first missiles are slated to arrive in Ukraine about six weeks after the deal was approved.

·       Operational capability: The ERAM is an air-launched, long-range attack munition with a potential strike range of up to 400 kilometers (250 miles). Ukraine has been preparing to integrate this capability into its air force.

·       Purpose: These missiles will give Ukraine an enhanced ability to hit Russian targets deep behind the front lines, including supply depots, railways, and airfields. 

Restrictions on use against Russian territory

·       Pentagon review process: The Trump administration has implemented a strict review process for any use of American-supplied long-range missiles, including ERAMs, against targets inside Russia.

·       Need for approval: Any use of ERAMs by Ukraine against targets within Russia is expected to require case-by-case approval from the Pentagon. A similar restriction is currently blocking the use of ATACMS missiles against Russian territory.

·       Uncertainty for strikes inside Russia: Analysts believe Ukraine may be granted permission for unhindered use of ERAMs against Russian-occupied territories, but attacks on targets within Russia itself will likely be much more restricted. 

Current alternatives

While waiting for the new ERAMs, Ukraine has been using other capabilities for long-range strikes:

·       Domestic missiles: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine uses its own domestically produced long-range weapons for strikes on Russian territory.

·       Drones: Ukraine has been using its own fleet of long-range drones to strike targets inside Russia, particularly oil refineries.

·       Long Neptune missile: Ukraine recently unveiled its new "Long Neptune" cruise missile, which has a claimed range of 1,000 kilometers and has already been used in combat. 

Based on reports from late August 2025, Ukraine has not yet used Extended Range Attack Munitions (ERAM) missiles against Russian targets, as the missiles are still in transit and will be subject to U.S. restrictions. 

Here is a summary of the current status regarding Ukraine's potential use of ERAM missiles:

·       Approval for sale, not use: The U.S. has approved the sale of 3,350 ERAM missiles to Ukraine in an $850 million package, largely funded by European allies. Deliveries are expected to begin around mid-October 2025.

·       Pentagon restrictions: The use of these missiles against targets inside Russian territory will reportedly require separate approval from the Pentagon. This policy is consistent with restrictions placed on other American-supplied long-range weapons, such as ATACMS.

·       Different from other long-range weapons: ERAM is a low-cost, mass-producible cruise missile, giving it a different tactical role than the more limited number of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles Ukraine has received. 

While Ukraine is not currently using ERAM, other long-range capabilities, including some domestically produced weapons, are being utilized for deep strikes. However, these operations are still heavily influenced by the restrictive policies of Western partners.

https://www.google.com/search?q=is+ukraine+currently+using+ERAM+Missiles+against+russia+targets+ai

Comments

The decision to give Ukraine Offensive Missiles was intended to deter Putin from bombing Ukraine.

Putin ignored the message and increased Russia’s bombing in Ukraine. The next step is to authorize Ukraine to begin offensive ERAM missile strikes.

Increased bombing of Russia plus more Sanctions in the form of Oil and Gas Tariffs should bring Putin back to the table to “make a deal” to end the War.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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