Stock Market Revisited 4-10-25

The US Stock Market took a dive on April 4, 2025 and the Dow declined from 41,000 to 40,000. By April 8, the Dow closed at 37,193.  The US Stock Market is moving to establish a reset that reflects their assumptions. The problem is always paranoid overreaction. It allows stock prices to rise beyond the real value of the stocks to take profits and decline to get good deals. The Stock Market uses “hype” to encourage buying. The new “hype” is the promise that AI will add to productivity.  This is true and AI is real, but Cyber Security is not.  Exactly when AI will increase productivity is unknown. Nothing exceeds like excess. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 36,000 for the first time on November 2, 2021. 

Before that date, the Dow had never closed above 36,000. In 1999, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett predicted in their book, "Dow 36,000," that the Dow would reach 36,000 as soon as 2005.

However, the prediction did not come true: until 2021, after the dot-com bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the Great Recession.

On Monday, November 1, 2021: the Dow briefly rose above 36,000 but didn't end the day there. On Tuesday, November 2, 2021: the Dow closed above 36,000 for the first time.

The Dow began to lower its Average after 4-2-25 with the introduction of Trump’s Tariff Plan.

Dow       Close

4-8-25    37,645

4-7-25    37,965

4-6-25    Sunday

4-5-25    Saturday

4-4-25    38,314

4-3-25    40,545

4-2-25    42,225

4-1-25    41,990

3-31-25  42001

The Dow has vacillated between 41,000 and 43,000 for months prior to the Tariff Plan announcement. In December 2024 the Dow reached 45,000.

Source: Google Search

Comments

From 2021 to 2025, the Dow rose due to excessive federal government spending that drove US GDP.  Federal Spending rose by $2 trillion and the Dow priced in the 20% Inflation cause by the increase in the US Money Supply (M2)..

The Dow Inflated by 7,000 points (20%) from 36,000 to 45,000 over the past 4 years. This is despite the fact that US companies had hollowed themselves out by sending their manufacturing overseas. $36,000 looks like a more realistic value for these US companies.

This bubble popped in April 2025 with the beginning of the Tariff Reset and US Manufacturing Job reshoring Plan.

The trading range going forward looks like 37,000 to 40,000. We well see the range move to 40,000 to 43,000.

Electronics Manufacturing needs to be reshored to the US using highly automated processes. Otherwise, US Patent Rights will continue to be violated and Intellectual Property will continue to be stolen.

Due to potential tariffs, analysts predict that iPhone prices in 2025 could increase significantly, potentially reaching up to $2,300 for the top-of-the-line iPhone 16 Pro Max. Here's a breakdown of the potential impact:

Tariff Impact: Analysts warn that tariffs on imports from China, where most iPhones are assembled, could lead to substantial price hikes. 

Price Increase Estimates: Some analysts predict a 43% increase in iPhone prices, potentially pushing the top-end iPhone 16 Pro Max (1TB) from $1,599 to nearly $2,300. 

The most affordable iPhone 16e model could increase from $599 to over $850. 

An iPhone 16 Pro with 256GB could rise from $999 to more than $1,400. 

Apple's Response: Apple may choose to absorb some of the costs, push suppliers to reduce prices, pass on the expense to customers, or make supply chain adjustments. 

Consumer Impact: Analysts suggest that consumers should be prepared for higher prices, potentially leading to a decrease in demand. 

Other factors: Some analysts predict that Apple will hold off on major price increases until this fall when the iPhone 17 is scheduled to launch. 

Alternative Options: Some analysts suggest that consumers should consider buying used or refurbished iPhones, or exploring alternative Android phones. 

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader