As
of early January 2026, Cuba faces severe economic challenges, with high
inflation (forecast around 12-15% for 2026), a struggling economy
experiencing recent contractions, and low GDP per capita,
while unemployment remains officially low (around 1.5%) but
masks underemployment and crisis impacts, though precise January 2026 nominal
GDP figures aren't available yet, projections suggest continued struggle or
modest growth amidst deep crisis.
Key
Economic Indicators (Forecasts & Recent Data)
Inflation: Forecasts
for 2026 suggest inflation around 12% (Q4/26) by Trading Economics or an average of
15% by Coface. This follows high
rates in previous years, with FocusEconomics noting 24.9% at
the end of 2024.
GDP Growth: The economy has
shrunk recently (e.g., -1.9% in 2023, -1.5% in 2024), with modest growth (1.5%)
forecast for Q4 2026 by Trading Economics and 0.6% by Coface.
GDP per Capita (Nominal): Data
shows around $3,287 in 2023. Projections point towards modest increases in real
or PPP terms, but nominal figures for Jan 2026 are pending, with Trading
Economics forecasting $7,545 (likely PPP or adjusted) for Q4 2026, while earlier
data from Georank.org suggests around
$9,605 for 2026 (actual or adjusted).
Unemployment: The official rate is very low (around 1.5% in 2024 from World Bank data cited by Trading Economics, and ~3% forecast for Q4 2026 by Trading Economics).
Context
for January 2026
Cuba is in a significant economic crisis, impacted by US pressure, internal
issues, and the global economic climate, leading to contractions, high
inflation, and challenges to the standard of living, despite low official
unemployment.
As of January 2026, the Cuban economy continues to operate under a self-described "wartime economy" framework as it manages a deep and ongoing fiscal crisis.
Economic
Indicators (January 2026)
Inflation
Rate: The annual inflation rate is approximately 15% (projected
to trend toward 12% by late 2026). However, some independent analyses have
reported much higher annualized rates near 27.7% due to persistent
macroeconomic imbalances.
Unemployment
Rate: Official figures report a low unemployment rate of
approximately 1.5% as of early 2026. Projections suggest this could
rise toward 3.0% by the end of the year.
Nominal
GDP per Capita: Current estimates place Cuba's nominal GDP per capita at
approximately $7,545 USD.
GDP Growth: The economy is forecast to grow by roughly 1% in 2026, following a period of contraction that saw the economy shrink by more than 4% in the first three quarters of 2025.
Recent
Economic Developments
Currency
Reform: On December 18, 2025, authorities launched a new currency reform
process featuring a daily floating exchange rate published by the
Central Bank of Cuba to combat the informal market.
Trade
Balance: The country maintains a significant trade deficit, with 2024
figures showing imports of approximately $8.1 billion against exports of only
$1.5 billion.
Debt: Government debt-to-GDP was last reported at roughly 119%, reflecting severe fiscal strain.
Comments
Cuba’s problems are growing due to no oil coming from Venezuela.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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