Sunday, January 18, 2026

Iran Economy 1-18-26

As of January 2026, Iran's economy faces severe challenges, with inflation projected around 35-40% (IMF/UN), high unemployment around 9% (IMF), and a shrinking economy with GDP per capita around $4,250-$5,500 (IMF/Facebook). The outlook remains poor due to sanctions, oil revenue decline, and internal mismanagement, leading to high poverty and living standards decline despite some projections of slight inflation moderation later in the year.  

Key Economic Indicators for Iran (Projections for 2026)

Inflation: Expect very high rates, with estimates around 35-41% (IMF/UN/World Bank projections from late 2025).

Unemployment: Official rates around 7-9%, but underemployment and youth unemployment are significantly higher (IMF/Majlis reports).

GDP Per Capita: Around $4,250 - $5,500 (IMF/Facebook estimates), with the World Bank projecting a shrinking economy. 

Context & Challenges

Sanctions & Oil: Long-standing sanctions severely impact oil exports and global market access.

Economic Crisis: Deepest in modern history, marked by high poverty (27-50% below poverty line) and social discontent.

Food Insecurity: Skyrocketing food prices (over 70% in late 2025) exacerbate crises. 

Note: Data reflects late 2025 projections for 2026; real-time figures fluctuate. Data sources include IMF, World Bank, UN, Trading Economics, and news analyses from early 2026. 

As of January 2026, the Iranian economy continues to struggle with high inflation and structural inefficiencies, though some international projections suggest modest stabilization compared to previous years. 

Inflation: The annual average inflation rate is projected to be approximately 40% to 41.6% for 2026. As of late December 2025, point-to-point inflation had reached 52.6%, driven largely by food prices which saw increases of up to 72% year-on-year.

Unemployment: The official unemployment rate is estimated at 9.2% for 2026. However, reports indicate significant underemployment and higher rates among specific demographics; for instance, youth unemployment was recorded at 20.2% in late 2024, and broader figures suggest substantial numbers of working-age males are not actively seeking employment due to the crisis.

Per Capita GDP:

Nominal: Estimated at approximately $4,250 per capita.

GDP Growth: Real GDP growth for 2026 is forecast at a modest 1.1%, following a sharp decline in growth during 2025 (estimated at 0.3% to 0.6%). 

For official data and detailed economic indicators, you can refer to the IMF Iran DataMapper or the World Bank Iran Overview. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=iran+economy+inflation+unemployment+per+capita+gdp+january+2026

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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