Venezuela Economy 1-18-26

As of January 2026, Venezuela's economy shows continued instability with high projected inflation (around 225-682% for 2026), a declining GDP (projected ~$101 billion in 2026), and significant challenges to GDP per capita, though forecasts vary widely on specific figures. Unemployment remains elevated, with some estimates suggesting over 35% in prior years, indicating persistent economic crisis despite some recent policy efforts to stabilize prices.  

Key Economic Indicators (Forecasts for 2026)

Inflation: Forecasts range from ~225% (Lloyds) to over 600% (IMF, Visual Capitalist), indicating hyperinflationary pressures persist.

GDP: Projected to decline, with estimates around $101 billion (Statista, Lloyds).

GDP Per Capita: Figures vary significantly, from around $3,000 (IMF).

Unemployment: High, with estimates around 35.6% from 2018 persisting as a concern. 

Context
Venezuela faces a prolonged economic collapse stemming from mismanagement, oil production drops, and sanctions, though recent years have seen attempts at stabilization amidst ongoing crisis and mass emigration. Different forecasting models produce varied results, highlighting the volatility of the situation. 

As of January 2026, the 

Venezuelan economy continues to experience extreme volatility characterized by high inflation and a multi-year contraction in real growth. 

Economic Indicators (Forecasts for 2026)

The following data reflects 2026 projections from the IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2025):

Inflation Rate: Average consumer prices are projected to rise by 682.1% annually.

GDP per Capita: Estimated at approximately $2,970 (USD) at current prices.

Real GDP Growth: The economy is expected to contract by -3.0% in 2026.

Unemployment Rate: Official figures are highly disputed; while historical modeled estimates from 2024 hovered around 5.5%, independent analysts and the IMF have previously estimated that over half the workforce may be underemployed or unemployed due to the ongoing crisis.

Total GDP (Nominal): Projected to reach $79.92 billion (USD). 

Economic Context

Hyperinflation Persistence: Venezuela remains one of the world's most inflationary economies, with the IMF forecasting a continued rise in consumer prices throughout 2026.

Debt and Deficit: The government's gross debt was last reported near 164.3% of GDP (2024), with a persistent budget deficit.

Oil Dependency: The economy remains heavily reliant on oil production, which continues to suffer from lack of maintenance and investment.

Humanitarian Impact: High inflation and weak purchasing power have led to widespread food insecurity, with over 7 million people requiring humanitarian aid. 

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Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader