Gaza Population 1-14-26

Gaza's population was around 2.1 million in late 2022/early 2023, with projections from the Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimating it could reach over 2.4 million by 2026, reflecting high natural growth despite significant displacement from the 2023 conflict, though data varies between sources like the PCBS and CIA estimates, with some suggesting a slight decline post-October 7th war.  

Key Figures & Trends:

Pre-War (2021-2022): Estimates placed Gaza's population at roughly 2.1 to 2.2 million, with high growth rates, notes Arab Center Washington DC and Wikipedia.

During/Post-War (2023-2025): Data becomes complex. The PCBS suggested a drop to around 2.1 million by mid-2025 due to war displacement, while the CIA showed a slight increase to 2.14 million by mid-2024, showing the difficulty in precise numbers.

Projections (2026): The PCBS projects the Gaza Strip population to reach approximately 2,411,790 in 2026, continuing a trend of significant growth, as shown on this Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics page. 

Key Factors:

High Fertility: Gaza has a very young population and high birth rates, driving natural growth.

Displacement: The 2023 war caused massive internal displacement, making accurate counts challenging, as noted by this No Labels analysis.

Varying Data: Sources like the PCBS (based in the West Bank) and the CIA offer different figures, but generally agree on a population in the low millions. 

In summary, Gaza's population is large, young, and growing, hovering around 2.1-2.2 million before recent conflicts, with projections for 2026 exceeding 2.4 million, even with war-related population shifts considered. 

Between 2021 and 2026, 

Gaza's population has undergone a significant shift due to the conflict beginning in October 2023. While the population was previously on a steady growth trajectory of approximately 2-3% per year, it is now estimated to have declined from its pre-war peak. 

Gaza Population Estimates (2021–2026) 

The following table provides population figures for the Gaza Strip based on data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) and the CIA World Factbook. 

Year    Est Population    Sources

2021    2,100,000           PCBS

2022    1,997,000           CIA

2023     2,226,544          Pre War

2024     2,129,724          Wartime Decline

2025     2,100,000          Wartime Decline

2026     2,100,000          Stabilization

Key Demographic Impacts (2024–2026)

Wartime Population Decline: As of January 2025, the PCBS reported a 6% to 10% decrease in Gaza's population compared to pre-war projections. This is attributed to high casualty rates and the displacement/migration of approximately 100,000 individuals.

Casualty Figures: Recent reports indicate over 45,500 confirmed deaths and approximately 11,000 individuals missing (presumed dead), heavily impacting the youth and child demographic groups.

Age Structure: Despite the decline, Gaza remains one of the youngest regions globally. Children under 18 make up approximately 47% of the population.

Density: Gaza remains extremely densely populated, with an estimated density of roughly 5,967 people per km² as of 2025. 

Historical Comparison and Projections

Pre-war projections from World Population Review anticipated a growth to 2.3 million by 2025 based on an annual growth rate of 3%. However, current 2026 realities show the population has effectively regressed to 2021 levels.

https://www.google.com/search?q=gaza+population+2021+to+2026

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