Ukraine Population Decline 1-14-26

Ukraine's population has seen a significant decline since 2021 (around 44.3 million) due to conflict, dropping to roughly 37.7-38.7 million by 2023-2024, with projections for 2026 varying but generally indicating continued low numbers (around 33-42 million), reflecting mass displacement and high death rates against low birth rates.  

Population Trends (Approximate Figures):

2021: ~44.3 million

2022: ~41.0 million (a significant drop)

2023: ~37.7 million

2024: ~37.9 - 38.7 million

2025: ~38.8 million (Macrotrends) or ~32.86 million (Statista)

2026 (Projections): ~33.38 million (Statista) or ~41.40 million (Trading Economics) 

Key Factors Affecting Population:

War & Displacement: The full-scale invasion in February 2022 caused millions to flee, drastically reducing the in-country population.

High Mortality: Ukraine faces extremely high death rates compared to birth rates.

Varying Estimates: Projections differ significantly, with some sources like Statista showing steeper declines (e.g., 33.38M in 2026) than others like Trading Economics (41.40M in 2026), highlighting the uncertainty. 

In essence, Ukraine's population is shrinking rapidly, with massive humanitarian impacts, and future figures depend heavily on conflict resolution and refugee returns. 

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, 

Ukraine's population has significantly decreased due to mass displacement, military casualties, and a plummeting birth rate. Estimates for 2026 suggest a total population of approximately 33.3 million to 39.5 million, though these figures vary based on whether they include territories currently under Russian occupation. 

Population Estimates (2021–2026)

The following data reflects mid-year estimates from major international organizations:

Year  Total Population Est  Events & Trends

2021  44.3 million                Pre-invasion baseline

2022  41.0 million                Initial shock of the invasion

2023  37.7 million                Mass refuge outflow

2024  37.9 million                Stabilization

2025  39.0 million                Refugee returns

2026  39.5 million                Refugee returns

Key Demographic Challenges

Mass Displacement: As of 2025, approximately 6 million refugees remain spread across Europe, with millions more internally displaced.

Declining Birth Rates: Ukraine currently has one of the world's lowest birth rates, with fertility estimated at just 1.0 child per woman as of 2025.

Occupied Territories: Precise accounting is difficult; roughly 31.1 million people live in government-controlled areas as of mid-2024, with the remainder in areas captured by Russia or living as "migrants between countries".

Future Projections: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) project the population could stabilize around 34 million by 2030, provided hostilities end by late 2025. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine+population+2021+to+2026

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader