Tuesday, January 9, 2024

US Meritocracy

I was blessed to have my career during the best US economy we have ever seen from 1957 to 2017. It was driven by private sector expansion and technological innovation and was a meritocracy. This economy suffered from bouts of inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and suffered from the mortgage meltdown in 2008, but it also benefitted from technological gains.in manufacturing, higher standards of living, high home ownership levels and created a middle class. 

The previous economy 1900 to 1960 suffered from disease, low life expectancy, World War I, the Great Depression and World War II, but delivered electricity, clean water, antibiotics, the automobile, air travel, telephones, refrigerators, air conditioning movies and television.

I was born in 1943. I witnessed and participated in the best manufacturing economy in US history.  I was able to work from age 14 for 18 years as a musician from 1957 to 1975 and as a Personnel Manager for 26 years from 1967 to 1993. I was able to establish my own Consulting Practice and work for 24 years from 1993 to 2017 as a “sole proprieter”. My wife was a Dental Assistant when I met her in 1962, We married in 1964 and raised our 6 kids. She went back to school in 1983 and graduated as a Dental Hygienist in 1986. She worked for 31 years. Our combined income allowed us to maintain and update our home and help our 6 kids pay for college. We paid off our mortgage in 2002. We both retired at age 74 in 2017.

The Greatest Generation was born from 1901 to 1927. My parents were born in this group.

The Silent Generation was born from 1928 to 1945 . My wife and I were born in this group.

Baby boomers were born from 1946 to 1964.

Gen X were born from 1965 to 1980. Our 6 children were born in this group.

Gen Y were born from 1981 to 1996 Our 13 grandchildren were born in this group.

Gen Z were born from 1997 to 2010. Our 6 great grandchildren started to arrive in this group.

The US manufacturing boom began in 1942, producing weapons for World War II and continued through1945.  In the 1950s, manufactured goods consumed in the US were manufactured in the US.  Europe needed to rebuild after World War II and restore it’s industries.  In the 1960s, Europe and Japan had rebuilt and began to sell their manufactured goods to US consumers. US companies began establishing manufacturing plants in other countries.  In the 1970s, US labor union costs were uncompetitive and more US companies were off-shoring their manufacturing.  In the 1980s, Japanese and German automobiles were taking market share by offering better built cars with better mileage, but US electronics was set to surge in defense, computers and telecom.

My jobs in Personnel were aimed at making unions unnecessary and automating companies to reduce errors and increase productivity. I wrote job descriptions and policies, recruited and hired employees, conducted and participated in compensation surveys, managed benefit programs, led the personnel function for corporations and served as a Management Consultant for 46 companies. Corporate cultures were conservative, capitalist and pro-employee.  

My first job was at St Louis United Way as St Charles Division Campaign Director 1965 to 1967. It was fully automated with an IBM System 3. I raised 125% of goal in 1965 and 1966 and consolidated the St. Charles Division into the St. Louis campaign in 1967.

My first Personnel job was in St. Louis Mo. at Kearney National as a Personnel Generalist 1967 to 1968. I moved to Monsanto HQ to learn compensation and union avoidance 1968 to 1971. I moved to Washington University to automate administration, ensure regulatory compliance and reversed unionization from 1971 to 1975.

I moved to Salina Kansas in 1975 to join Schwan Foods to automate administration and production and establish employee development 1975 to 1979. I joined Rickel Manufacturing to decertify the UAW 1979 to 1983. 

I moved to Atlanta Ga to join Hayes Microcomputer Products to complete their start up 1983 to 1986. I joined Electromagnetic Sciences Inc to support the Reagan Defense build-up 1986 to 1993. I chose my jobs based on what these companies needed to do and what I needed to learn. When my projects were completed, I moved on.

I served as a Personnel Director and functioned as an internal consultant from 1971 to 1993

I established my own Consulting Practice and served 46 companies from 1993 to 2017.

Now in retirement, I believe the US needs to return to a conservative meritocracy in our corporations, re-shore our manufacturing back to rural counties and reestablish pro-employee policies. Government needs to down-size, eliminate grants and cut the National Debt.  US Employees need to become inner-directed, pragmatic. self-reliant and economically self-sufficient. Families need to ensure that family members don’t become homeless.

I believe Trump will restore our economy with growth and government spending cuts and reduce crime by returning to the rule of law.  He will eliminate wars by increasing oil production to reduce energy costs and impose total economic isolation of Iran and Russia. He will eliminate terrorist groups, close the border, finish the wall and return to legal immigration based on need and merit. If Republicans take over the Senate and continue to control the House he will be able to put us back on the right track.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

 

Saturday, January 6, 2024

US Jobs Report December 2023

By BLS 1/5/24

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf  

The monthly jobs report shows jobs added in 2021, 2022 and 2023. by month.

216000 in December 2023

199000 in November 2023

150000 in October 2023

336000 in Septemver 2023

187000 in August 2023

187000 in July 2023

185000 in June 2023 rev dn 24000

314000 in May 2023 rev dn 25000

253000 in April 2023

236000 in March 2023

311000 in February 2023

517000 in January 2023

2904000 in 2023


223000 in December 2022

263000 in November 2022

261000 in October 2022

263000 in September 2022

315000 in August 2022

528000 in July 2022

372000 in June 2022

390000 in May 2022

428000 in April 2022

431000 in March 2022

678000 in February 2022

467000 in January 2022

4619000 in 2022

 

199000 in December 2021

210000 in November 2021

531000 in October 2021

194000 in September 2021

235000 in August 2021

943000 in July 2021

850000 in June 2021

559,000 in May 2021

278,000 in April 2021 

785,000 in March 2021

379,000 in February 2021

49,000 in January 2021

5212000 in 2021

 

12735000 total

-49,000 rev total

Revised Total  12686000

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December 2023 and the unemployment rate moved to 3.7%. The number of unemployed persons moved to 6.3 million. 

Health care jobs increased by 38,000 in December and has recovered since February 2020.

Social Assistance jobs increased by 21,000 in December.

Government jobs increased by 52.000 in December.  Government Jobs are up since February 2020

Construction jobs increased by 17000 in December.

Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 40,000 in December. Jobs are down by 163,000 since February 2020

Professional and business services jobs increase by 17000 in December and is above February 2020 levels by 1,000,000 jobs.

Manufacturing jobs did not increase in December.

Transportation and Warehouse jobs decreased by 23,000 in December.

Information jobs did not increase in December.

Retail jobs increased by 17000 in December.  Retail jobs are down by 188,000 since February 2020

Financial jobs did not increase in December.  Employment in financial activities is 200,000 jobs above its February 2020 level.

Other Services jobs did not increase in December.

Wholesale jobs did not increase in December.

Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction Jobs did not increase in December.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pd 

In February 2020 the US Jobs Deficit was 9.5 million.  US Unemployment by industry had deficits from February 2020.

                    2020                       2021

Industry      June   Sept   Oct     Feb    Apr    May   Aug   Dec

Hospitality  2.2M  1.6M  1.4M  1.5M 1.4M   1.3M  -1.1m -1m

Prof & Bus 632K  385K  215K+596k+738k +821k+1.1m +1m

Mfg            481K  353K  270K  178k   56k    17k     0k       0k

Construct   238K  201K  150K  11k   +8k   +40k   +40k   +59k

Mining       110K   93K    87K    62k  +73k  +80k   +96k   +102

Healthcare 508K  524K  460K  306k  250k  223k  -37k   +0k

Public Sch 582K  504K  575K  306k  306k  308k  -555k -555k

Pvt Schls   255K  172K  148K  148k  148k  115k  +115k +115k

SocialAsst 236K  204K  204K  152k  126k  126k   -53k    -40k

Media/Info 193K  108K  122K  122k  122k  122k  +117k +101k

Tran Whse 94K  +75K +149K+584k +674k+709k +759k +751k

Wholesale 192K  159K  158K  113k  1 57k   41k     -3k   +0k

Other Svc  297K  189K  169K   317k 317k  317k   -317k  -300k

Retail         303K  202K  140K  104k  284k+159k  -208k  -200k

Totals        6.3M   4.6M   4.9M  3.8M  2.9M 2.6M  -1.34k - 0k

Industries with deficits as of 2/28/23 included Hospitality, Public Schools, Retail and Other Services.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The Employment Situation-August 2021 (bls.gov)

Comments

The US Jobs deficit was 9.5 million in January 2021. This is the shortfall between jobs held in February 2020.

Over 10 million illegal immigrants entered the US since January 2021. I expect they will take government welfare in addition to jobs where they can be supervised by bi-lingual illegals in jobs that don’t require English and drug cartel jobs. Over 2 million legal immigrants arrive each year and 2 million US students graduate each year.

The US Labor Force Participation Rate 2021-2023

62.5 December 2023

62.8 November 2023

62.7 October 2023

62.8 September 2023

62.8 August 2023

62.6 July 2023

62.6 June 2023

62.6 May 2023

62.6 April 2023

62.6 March 2023

62.5 February 2023

62.4 January 2023

60.1 December 2022

62.1 November

62.2 October

62.3 September

62.4 August

62.1 July

62.2 June

62.3 May

62.2 April

62.4 March

62.3 February

62.2 January 2022

61.9 December 2021

61.8 November

61.6 October

61.6 September 

61.7 August 

61.7 July

61.6 June

61.6 May

61.7 April

61.5 March

61.4 February

61.4 January 2021

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

US Layoffs by Year

2023  194000

2022   93000

2021  10353000

Total 10640000

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/06/30/nearly-194000-laid-off-in-2023-so-far-as-us-layoffs-surge/?sh=3a3a2ce5777c

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/job-openings-and-quits-reach-record-highs-i

Jobs 2021-2023

Jobs restored 12686000

Job Lay-offs   10640000

Jobs created    2046000

Comments

The 12686000 Jobs restored are off-set by the 10640000 Job Lay-offs to have 2046000 Jobs created in 2021 to 2023.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

The Family is the Basic Economic Unit of Every Economy

Archeologists have uncovered evidence of Pre-historic families of hunter-gatherers merging to become multi-family groups. They needed leaders who were the best at providing food, shelter and safety to the tribe. Tribes always fought other tribes when threatened. These tribes began to migrate from Africa and create settlements in Europe and Asia. They learned to grow food and catch fish and were able to melt medal to create tools and weapons. The end of the Ice Age in 11,000BC accelerated the movement of tribes North. Boat building allowed for more fishing, trade and exploration. Tribes began to grow where water existed and cities formed next to oceans. Tribal leaders became Kings and they made the rules. Kings began to invest in weaponry. Infrastructure and trade. They demanded food and tribute from conquered Kingdoms. Kings had the incentive to raise large armies and take over neighboring countries. 

The Chinese Empire began in 2070BC and ended in 1912.  

The Persion Empire began in 550BC under Cyrus the Great.  It ended in 334BC when Alexander the Great conquered Persia

The Greek Empire began in 800BC. The Greeks took over Kingdoms in Europe, Middle-east and Africa by 323BC when Alexander the Great died.

The Roman Empire began with kings in 625BC. The Roman Republic began in 510 BC  Imperial Rome began in  31BC under Julius Caesar and ended in 476AD.  After the collapse of the Roman Empire, Kings arose in Europe and continued to attack each other.

The British Empire began in 1583 and ended in 1997.

The French Empire began in 1630 and ended in 1977.

The Japanese Empire began in 1868 and ended in 1947.

The Russian Empire began in 1721 and ended in 1917.  Russian history began in 882AD under Prince Oleg.

Each Empire expanded by conquest beyond its ability to sustain itself.  Each Empire failed.

Families remained intact as the basic economic unit.

The Founders recognized the need to enable families to establish wealth to pass on to their children. This was the goal of the Colonists and when it was threatened by England after 1765, they rebelled. Land ownership in the colonies was in jeopardy. They knew that Ireland was impoverish due to the lack of land ownership and they didn’t want to become another Ireland. The Colonists had been free to own land for 200 years thanks to their Colonial Laws that allowed for the election of fellow colonists to represent them in their Colonial governments. The Founders had studied the European Philosophers who correctly identified how governments could allow citizens to prosper and adopted those concepts. They studied democracies and identified their weaknesses. They concluded that excessive government debt had ended these democracies and set up the US government with limited powers.

Families home-schooled their children and insisted that they work doing farm chores from an early age. The result was generations of literate, self-reliant citizens.

Following generations maintained this model where the US was a meritocracy and families could advance and produce family wealth until 1913, when federal income taxes replaced import tariffs and the top income tax rate reached 70%.   President Woodrow Wilson 1913 – 1921. Expanded taxes, created new federal government powers and became the Father of Inflation. In 1913, the cost of a loaf of bread was 2 cents.

Wealthy families had used their wealth to fund expansions of their businesses. We needed this model to expand railroads and oil production in order to expand transportation of goods and move families from 1850 to 1900. 

After taxes rose, wealthy families chose to establish trusts, made huge contributions to charities and the largest companies who were broken up converted their businesses into publicly owned companies. They retained stock in these companies, but were unable to control them.  When they needed cash for their companies they sold Stock and when they needed a large cash infusion they sold Bonds. They adjusted to the “new normal” and survived. 

In 1929, the US Sstock Market crashed and in 1930 US agriculture crashed because of drought. The Great Depression kept unemployment high until 1942, when World War II put all US citizens to work in the Military or work at factories to produce war material.

In 1932, the US government introduced Social Security to force citizens to save for their retirement. But rather than depositing funds into individual accounts, the government chose to treat it as revenue. This allowed the federal government to overspend.  President Franklin D Roosevelt 1933-1945,  Expanded taxes, created new federal government powers and became the next Father of Inflation.

Our parents and grandparents lived through the Great Depression and World War II.

Families remained intact as the basic economic unit.

The US National Debt was

below $5 trillion in 1995 under Clinton

$10 trillion in 2008 under Bush 2 for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

$20 trillion in 2016 under Obama for wind and solar

$26 trillion in 2020 under Trump for military and Covid

$33 trillion in 2023 under Biden for wind and solar

In the US, federal overspending has weakened our economy and needs to be reigned in. We need to return control of the House and Senate to Republicans, close the border, deport the illegals, expand drilling for oil and natural gas and restore our economy. Trump needs to be reelected in 2024 to lead this restoration. Trump proved that war could be replaced by total economic isolation.

Families remain intact as the basic economic unit for many families. We continue to maintain the “family home” to ensure that none of our children, grand children or great grand children are ever homeless and destitute. My grandfather maintained his family home to support 3 disabled sons and I followed his example.  My father-in-law supported a divorced daughter and provided $100,000 inheritance to each of 4 children and I plan on providing this to our children. We support a few who are struggling in this bad economy and believe many other families do the same.

We urge all parents to teach self-reliance to their children to ensure their economic freedom. Children need to know themselves including what they are good at and love to do. This may take time for them to learn about themselves through trial and error. They need the courage to be themselves to discover God’s plan for them.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Monday, January 1, 2024

US Illegal Immigrant Disaster

The US has a weak economy and no housing boom.  Illegal immigration was reduced by Trump’s policies and border wall. Trump’s Energy policy increased production and lowered prices. Biden’s policies reversed Trump’s policies in 2021 with Open Borders, attacks on Oil and Natural Gas production. Open borders is a Marxist Soros idea and is backfiring on Biden. Timing is poor. The Drug Cartels now control the southern border. 

The Illegals are mostly young men who do not speak English.  The Illegals are not being housed by relatives. They are living on federal welfare in hotels, shelters, streets and parks. There are no jobs for Illegals and Winter is upon us. It’s a mess.

In the 1980s, the US had a growing economy and a housing boom.  Illegal immigrants were able to cross the border, find work in the US and send money to their families back home. They often went back home for Christmas and returned to their labor crews in the US. They liked being paid with cash. Many did not speak English, but their Crew Chief who gave them instructions in Spanish could speak English. These Illegal Immigrants were able to build houses, install drywall, build tile floors remove trees and perform other labor jobs with the help of US construction and service companies and their English-speaking Crew Chiefs.  

Now in 2023, there is no housing boom because of high mortgage rates. The US has other problems. Inflation has risen by 21% Reguar Gasoline is averaging $3.57 per gallon, food and rent prices are up. Unemployment is holding at under 4%, but recession is expected in 2024. After spending $6000 to be escorted by Drug Cartels, Illegals are beginning to request transportation back to their home countries.  

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

US Jobs Report November 2023

By BLS 12/8/23 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf 

The monthly jobs report shows jobs added in 2021, 2022 and 2023. by month.

199000 in November 2023

150000 in October 2023

336000 in Septemver 2023

187000 in August 2023

187000 in July 2023

185000 in June 2023 rev dn 24000

314000 in May 2023 rev dn 25000

253000 in April 2023

236000 in March 2023

311000 in February 2023

517000 in January 2023

223000 in December 2022

263000 in November 2022

261000 in October 2022

263000 in September 2022

315000 in August 2022

528000 in July 2022

372000 in June 2022

390000 in May 2022

428000 in April 2022

431000 in March 2022

678000 in February 2022

467000 in January 2022

199000 in December 2021

210000 in November 2021

531000 in October 2021

194000 in September 2021

235000 in August 2021

943000 in July 2021

850000 in June 2021

559,000 in May 2021

278,000 in April 2021 

785,000 in March 2021

379,000 in February 2021

49,000 in January 2021

11,844700 total

-49,000 rev total

Revised Total  11596700

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November 2023 and the unemployment rate moved to 3.7%. The number of unemployed persons moved to 5.3 million.

Health care jobs increased by 77,000 in November and has recovered since February 2020.

Social Assistance jobs increased by 16,000 in November.

Government jobs increased by 49.000 in November.  

Government Jobs are up since February 2020

Construction jobs did not increase in November.

Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 40,000 in November. Jobs were down by 140,000 since February 2020

Professional and business services did not increase in November and is above February 2020 levels by 1,000,000 jobs.

Manufacturing jobs decrease by 28000 in November.

Transportation and Warehouse jobs lost 5,000 jobs in November.

Information jobs increased by 10.000 in November.

Retail jobs lost 38000 in November.  Retail jobs are down by 188,000 since February 2020

Financial jobs did not increase  in November.  Employment in financial activities is 200,000 jobs above its February 2020 level..

Other Services jobs did not increase in November.

Wholesale jobs did not increase in November.

Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction Jobs did not increase in November.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pd 

In February 2020 the US Jobs Deficit was 9.5 million.  US Unemployment by industry had deficits from February 2020.

                    2020                       2021

Industry      June   Sept   Oct     Feb    Apr    May   Aug   Dec

Hospitality  2.2M  1.6M  1.4M  1.5M 1.4M   1.3M  -1.1m -1m

Prof & Bus 632K  385K  215K+596k+738k +821k+1.1m +1m

Mfg            481K  353K  270K  178k   56k    17k     0k       0k

Construct   238K  201K  150K  11k   +8k   +40k   +40k   +59k

Mining       110K   93K    87K    62k  +73k  +80k   +96k   +102

Healthcare 508K  524K  460K  306k  250k  223k  -37k   +0k

Public Sch 582K  504K  575K  306k  306k  308k  -555k -555k

Pvt Schls   255K  172K  148K  148k  148k  115k  +115k +115k

SocialAsst 236K  204K  204K  152k  126k  126k   -53k    -40k

Media/Info 193K  108K  122K  122k  122k  122k  +117k +101k

Tran Whse 94K  +75K +149K+584k +674k+709k +759k +751k

Wholesale 192K  159K  158K  113k  1 57k   41k     -3k   +0k

Other Svc  297K  189K  169K   317k 317k  317k   -317k  -300k

Retail         303K  202K  140K  104k  284k+159k  -208k  -200k

Totals        6.3M   4.6M   4.9M  3.8M  2.9M 2.6M  -1.34k - 0k

Industries with deficits as of 2/28/23 included Hospitality, Public Schools, Retail and Other Services.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The Employment Situation-August 2021 (bls.gov)

Comments

The US Jobs deficit was 9.5 million in January 2021. This is the shortfall between jobs held in February 2020.

Over 10 million illegal immigrants entered the US since January 2021. I expect they will take government welfare in addition to jobs where they can be supervised by bi-lingual illegals in jobs that don’t require English and drug cartel jobs. Over 2 million legal immigrants arrive each year and 2 million US students graduate each year.

The US Labor Force Participation Rate 2021-2023

62.8 November 2023

62.7 October 2023

62.8 September 2023

62.8 August 2023

62.6 July 2023

62.6 June 2023

62.6 May 2023

62.6 April 2023

62.6 March 2023

62.5 February 2023

62.4 January 2023

60.1 December 2022

62.1 November

62.2 October

62.3 September

62.4 August

62.1 July

62.2 June

62.3 May

62.2 April

62.4 March

62.3 February

62.2 January 2022

61.9 December 2021

61.8 November

61.6 October

61.6 September 

61.7 August 

61.7 July

61.6 June

61.6 May

61.7 April

61.5 March

61.4 February

61.4 January 2021

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

US Layoffs by Year

2023  194000

2022   93000

2021  10353000

Total 10640000

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/06/30/nearly-194000-laid-off-in-2023-so-far-as-us-layoffs-surge/?sh=3a3a2ce5777c

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/job-openings-and-quits-reach-record-highs-i

Jobs 2021-2023

Jobs restored 11633700

Job Lay-offs   10640000

Jobs created     993700

Comments

The 11633700 Jobs restored are off-set by the 10640000 Job Lay-offs to have 993700 Jobs created in 2021 to 2023.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader