Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Asylum Scam Mitigation


Trump Reaches Immigration Deal — Goes Around Open Border Democrats, by Richard Cowan, 9/21/19.

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) The United States and El Salvador on Friday agreed to attempt to reduce the flow of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border by strengthening El Salvador’s capacity to provide for asylum seekers, but did not detail any concrete actions.

The core of this is recognizing El Salvador’s development of their own asylum system and committing to help them build that capacity,” Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan told reporters in Washington after signing documents with El Salvador’s minister of foreign affairs, Alexandra Hill.

“Individuals crossing through El Salvador should be able to seek protections” in the Central American country even if they were intending to apply for asylum in the United States, he added.

Neither official said when the arrangement would take effect or provide details on how it would be administered. It was unclear how such a deal would work, given that most migrants from other countries take routes that avoid crossing the small, poverty-stricken El Salvador.

“We are going to work out operational details. This is just a broad agreement,” Hill told Reuters upon leaving the signing ceremony.

The agreement represents the latest effort by McAleenan to seal immigration deals with the Northern Triangle countries of Central America – Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador – from where many immigrants arriving at the U.S. southern border set out.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made immigration enforcement a centerpiece of his administration and is pushing to staunch the flow of migrants – many of them families – crossing into the United States. Border crossings reached record highs earlier this year, frustrating Trump.

Guatemala has signed a so-called ‘safe third country’ deal with the United States that requires asylum seekers who travel through Guatemala on the way to the U.S.-Mexico border to ask for refuge in Guatemala first, instead of in the United States. The Guatemalan Congress, however, has not ratified the deal. The United States has a similar safe third country agreement with Canada.

Honduras, meanwhile, held talks with the United States over migration this week that will continue into next, Honduras’ foreign ministry and the U.S. Embassy said in a joint statement on Friday.

Among the topics under discussion is the possibility of requiring Cuban migrants to seek asylum in Honduras rather than the United States.

Citing fears that the United States could retaliate against Honduran exports, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez told local television on Thursday that there was a need for a region-wide agreement with Mexico, Guatemala and the United States, given increasing numbers of migrants from Cuba and Africa traversing Central America to reach the United States.

“So we believe that Honduras should also become a safe country to avoid the situation becoming more complicated,” Hernandez said.

Immigration advocates have criticized the deals, saying Central American countries where many people are fleeing from violence, poverty and endemic corruption, do not have the capacity to process more asylum claims and cannot assure safety for vulnerable migrants.

“The real goal of the United States is to make sure these (asylum) claims are never heard in a U.S. court,” said Douglas Rivlin, spokesman for Washington-based pro-immigration group America’s Voice, following the U.S.-El Salvador agreement.

El Salvador, which has 6.6 million people, is one of the world’s most violent nations, largely due to criminal gangs involved in drug trafficking and extortion.

As the U.S. government has pursued the deals, the Department of Homeland Security in parallel issued a rule that would bar most migrants from gaining U.S. asylum if they had not sought safe haven in any country they first transited through.

The rule accomplishes virtually the same thing as the agreements, but it has faced legal challenges. A federal court initially blocked the rule from taking effect, but the Supreme Court on Sept. 11 allowed it to be implemented while the court challenges are ongoing.

Reporting by Richard Cowan in Washington, Mica Rosenberg in New York and Gustavo Palencia in Tegulcipaga; Additional reporting by Jan Wolfe in Washington and Daina Beth Solomon in Mexico City; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and Rosalba O’Brien


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Soybean Price Problem


The Soybean price problem in the US is due to increased soybean planting and production. The current price is $8.83 per bushel. This is about supply and demand. Soybeans are used for animal feed and the lower price helps lower the cost of feed.

For current coverage of the soybean industry, see the ERS monthly newsletter Oil Crops Outlook. In 2012, Soybean price was $14.40 per bushel and everybody increased their Soybean production. Each year more acres were planted and produced and prices fell to $8.30 per bushel by 2016.

U.S. soybean planted acreage:
2012: 77.2 million acres
2013: 76.8 million acres
2014: 83.3 million acres
2015: 82.7 million acres
2016: 83.7 million acres

Farm cash value, soybean production:
2012: $43.7 billion
2013: $43.6 billion
2014: $39.5 billion
2015: $35.2 billion
2016: $38.0 billion

U.S. soybean production:   
2012: 3,042 million bushels
2013: 3,358 million bushels
2014: 3,927 million bushels
2015: 3,929 million bushels
2016: 4,201 million bushels

Soybean production, top five States, 2016
IL—600 million bushels
IA—560 million bushels
MN—380 million bushels
IN—329 million bushels
NE—310 million bushels

U.S. soybean exports (crop year): 
2012: 1,328 million bushels
2013: 1,639 million bushels
2014: 1,842 million bushels
2015: 1,940 million bushels
2016: 1,985 million bushels

U.S. soybean exports as percent of production: 
2012: 44 percent
2013: 49 percent
2014: 47 percent
2015: 49 percent
2016: 47 percent 

U.S. soybean exports by country, 2014/15. Top five destinations:
China—1,085 million bushels
European Union—167 million bushels
Mexico—131 million bushels
Japan—80 million bushels
Taiwan—53 million bushels

U.S. Soybean Price Average by Year: 
2012 $14.40 per bushel
2013 $13.00 per bushel
2014 $10.10 per bushel
2015 $8.95 per bushel
2016 $8.30-$9.80 per bushel


Crop year begins September 1 and ends August 31.


Other US agricultural exports are down from 2018 to 2019 except Wheat.
US Soybeans 50.3 mmt. to 39.3 mmt.
US Wheat 17.3 mmt. to 21.8 mmt.
US Corn 52.4 mmt. to 44.2 mmt.
US Cotton 3.3 mmt. to 3.0 mmt.


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Monday, September 23, 2019

US Energy Independence


The US is forecast to reach oil independence by 2021. In 2020, US consumption is forecast at 20.85 million barrels per day. and US production is forecast at 19.84 million barrels per day.  

US Oil Production in (millions of barrels per day)

Production 2017 2018 2019 2020
Crude Oil  9.35 10.99 12.24 13.23
LNG          3.78   4.35   4.96   5.40
Ethanol     1.04   1.05   1.03   1.04
Biodiesel   0.10  0.12   0.13    0.15
Total       14.27 16.51 18.36 19.82

US Oil Consumption in (millions of barrels per day)

US Usage  2017 2018   2019  2020
Gasoline  9.33    9.32    9.30   9.31
Fuel Oil    3.93    4.13    4.09   4.18
LNG         2.64    2.99    3.20   3.37
Jet Fuel    1.68    1.71    1.78   1.84
Total       19.96  20.45   20.59 20.85


US Natural Gas Production is forecast to reach 100.55 billion cubic feet in 2020.  US Natural Gas Consumption is forecast to reach 85.34 billion cubic feet in 2020.  We are a net exporter of natural gas. This is critical in reducing our trade deficit.

US Natural Gas Production in (billion cubic feet per day)

Production   2017  2018   2019  2020
Dry Gas       74.77 83.39  91.39  93.19
Dry Imports   8.12    7.70    7.30   7.18
LNG Imports 0.21    0.21    0.17    0.22
Total            79.99  89.69  98.40 100.55

US Natural Gas Consumption in (billion cubic feet per day)

US Usage     2017  2018  2019  2020
Residential   12.09 13.63 13.82 13.59
Commercial   8.67    9.52   9.63   9.38
Industrial      21.78  22.70 22.94  23.72
Electric Util. 25.39   29.11 30.55  30.79
Total            74.32   82.07 84.51  85.34


US Coal Production is forecast to reach 617.3 metric tons in 2020.  US Coal Consumption is forecast to reach 85.7 metric tons in 2020.  We are a net exporter of coal. This is critical in reducing our trade deficit.

US Coal Production in (million short tons)

US Supply   2017  2018   2019  2020
US Product  774.6 755.5  673.9 617.3
Imports            7.8     6.0      6.7    5.3
Exports          97.0 115.6    94.2   85.7

US Usage   2017  2018  2019  2020
Electric Util 665.0 636.5 542.7 499.5
Industry        51.9   50.8   50.7   49.0
Total            716.9 687.3 519.4 548.4


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Manufacturing Rise


Manufacturers Added 6 Times More Jobs Under Trump Than Under Obama's Last 2 Years, by Chuck DeVore, 2/1/19. Forbes. 
The federal government released its first jobs report of 2019, showing that nonfarm payroll grew by 304,000 in January, far above economists’ consensus estimate of 170,000. The average monthly gain in 2018 was 223,000.

Over the past year, average hourly earnings were up 3.2%.
After revising its data for past periods, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment grew by 5.1 million jobs in President Trump’s first full two years in office, a 3.5% increase. Private sector payrolls grew by 4.9 million, a 4.0% increase.

By comparison, over the same 24-month period, the economy added 5.0 million jobs in former President Obama’s last two years in office, with private sector employment up by 4.7 million.

Significantly, growth in manufacturing jobs continued to show strength, with 13,000 jobs added in January.

Over the past two years, with the encouragement of the Trump Administration’s red-tape cutting policies and the tax cut and reform law passed in December 2017, manufacturers added 467,000 jobs, more than six times the 73,000 manufacturing jobs added in Obama’s last two years.

Looking at Trump’s first two years, the revised BLS data shows that more than two manufacturing jobs were added for every one job added in government at the federal, state, and local level. In contrast, under Obama, almost five government jobs were added for every one manufacturing job.

Since Pres. Trump took office in January 2017, employment in manufacturing has increased 3.7%. Over the same period during the last two years under Pres. Obama, manufacturing payrolls grew by only 0.6%.

The sluggish growth in manufacturing in the latter half of the Obama years led to President Obama remarking in June 2016 that manufacturing jobs “are just not going to come back.”

Weeks after Trump’s election—and in response to candidate Trump’s promise to bring back manufacturing jobs—New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, an economist, said, “Nothing policy can do will bring back those lost jobs. The service sector is the future of work; but nobody wants to hear it.

Trump’s deregulatory and tax policies have confounded his critics and benefited the American worker.


Rural cities need to restore their economies by returning manufacturing plants to these cities. Rural areas were decimated by the off-shoring of manufacturing from 1990s to 2020. Big cities are too crowded and need to be reduced.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Jobs Report History


In 2016, most US jobs went to welfare migrants, refugees, illegals, minimum wage and government jobs. Average job growth was 192,333 per month. Total jobs added were 2,308,000.

In 2017, most US jobs went to US Citizens. Average job growth was 211,500. Total jobs added were 2,538,000

In 2018, most US jobs went to US Citizens. Average job growth was 223,250. Total jobs added were 2,679,000

In 2019, most jobs went to US Citizens.  Average job growth for the first 8 months was 165,875. Total jobs added to date are 1,327,000.

US Jobs Reports 2019
8/19 130,000
7/19  164,000
6/19  224,000
5/19    72,000
4/19  216,000
3/19  153,000
2/19    56,000
1/19  312,000

2019 Total 1,327,000
Average 165,875

12/18 227,000
11/18 196,000
10/18 277,000
9/18   108,000
8/18   282,000
7/18   178,000
6/18   262,000
5/18   270,000
4/18   196,000
3/18   182,000
2/18   330,000
1/18   171,000

2018 Total  2,679.000
Average 223,250

12/17  174,000
11/17  220,000
10/17  260,000
9/17      18,000
8/17    187,000
7/17   204,000
6/17   229,000
7/17   128,000
6/17   213,000
5/17   127,000
4/17   141,000
3/17   252,000
2/17   215,000
1/17   170,000

2017 Total   2,538,000
Average 211,500

12/16   215,000
11/16   170,000
10/16   128,000
9/16     270,000
8/16     135,000
7/16     326,000
6/16     282,000
5/16       15,000
4/16     211,000
3/16     234,000
2/16     232,000
1/16       90,000

2016 Total  2,308,000
Average 192.333


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

Sunday, September 22, 2019

US Trade Deficit Down


US Tariffs are moving manufacturing jobs back to the US.
The Total Monthly US Trade Deficit was lowered by $1.5 billion in July 2019.

 Deficit        Total              China
June 2019   $55.5 billion   $30.2 billion
July 2019    $54.0 billion    $29.6 billion


July 2019 US Foreign Trade

Country     US Imports   US Exports  
China        $260.6 B       $60.7 B
Mexico      $209.7 B      $151.4 B
Canada     $185.0 B      $172.0 B
Japan          $85.8 B       $43.4 B
Vietnam      $36.0 B         $5.9 B
Ireland        $35.1 B         $5.2 B
Germany     $73.7 B       $34.8 B
S Korea       $45.7 B       $33.0 B
UK               $36.6 B       $39.4 B
France         $34.6 B       $22.0 B 
India            $34.4 B        $20.9 B
Taiwan        $30.8 B        $17.8 B
Italy             $33.6 B        $13.7 B
Brazil           $18.6 B        $24.4 B
Netherlands $16.1 B       $29.8 B


Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

US Average Hourly Wage Growth Rising


US wages rose over the past 12 months from $22.96/hr. to $23.59/hr. That’s a 2.7%, 63/hr. cent increase.  Inflation is 1.7%.

August 2019         $23.59
July 2019              $23.46
June 2019            $23.42
May 2019             $23.38
April 2019             $23.30
March 2019          $23.25
February 2019     $23.17
January 2019       $23.11
December 2018   $23.09
November 2018   $22.99
October 2018       $22.90
September 2018  $22.96

Average hours is reported at 34.4 hours per week.

157.9 million people in the US are reported as employed. 130.8 million people in the US are employed full-time and 27.0 million are employed part-time. The average unemployment rate is 3.7%.

High Skilled Average pay is $4520/mo.
Low Skilled Average pay is $1960/mo.


US Personal and Disposable Income rose by 0.4%   In June 2019 personal income rose by $86.3 billion. Disposable income rose by $69.7 billion. .  Inflation is 1.7%.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader