Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Tunesia Problems 6-11-24

Islamic Terrorists are active in Tunesia with attacks on police and citizens. Violent pro-Palestinian protests are fueling the violence. 

Despite some improvements in border security, there remains continuing instability and violence on the border with Libya. Tunisian security forces have been the primary target in terrorist-related incidents, mainly in border areas including in the Chaambi Mountains. See Regional risks.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/tunisia/safety-and-security#:~:text=Despite%20some%20improvements%20in%20border,See%20Regional%20risks.

Foreign debt has soared, approaching 90 per cent of Tunisia's GDP in 2022. The main economic indicators remain alarming. Over the past ten years, political instability and increased spending to the detriment of investment slowed economic growth.

Tunisia has been living beyond its means since 2011. External support and credit flowed into the country after the 2010–2011 uprising to support its nascent democracy, but this funding ended up largely financing a consumption boom that is unsustainable. To make matters worse, macroeconomic and political instability have begun to deeply harm the country’s productive capacity. The risk of a serious financial crisis has risen and corrective action is needed to ward it off.

Tunisia’s political system should be able to avoid such catastrophic outcomes. Most reasonable people agree that the risks are rising and that something needs to be done. However, the disagreement is over magnitude, timing, and the type of program required to address the country’s problems. A hard economic adjustment risks unleashing a sociopolitical crisis. Not engaging in a correction, however, may well engender a future economic meltdown. Buying time is easiest politically, but it often means only postponing the crisis, leading to an even larger explosion. The challenge is to find the narrow path to escape a crisis by generating confidence in a national program that is politically acceptable and that can lead to a brighter future.

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/the-buildup-to-a-crisis-current-tensions-and-future-scenarios-for-tunisia?lang=en

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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