While all of the attention for
market-watchers has been on will-they-or-won’t-they taper at the Fed, the real
story GDP of the year is the fact that the Commerce Department just downgraded
GDP growth once again, in at least a partial revision of the lie they first
told last winter.
And lost in the official revisions to GDP
and the revisions to revisions and the revisions to revised revisions, is the
story of how ordinary people are struggling. And lost is the way they want
ordinary folks to stay. Why? Because politicians are getting ready for another
round of reckless spending.
The tape doesn’t lie, they say in the stock
market, but this government finds ingenious ways to lie every day about the
economy as Main Street languishes.
If Mark Twain said that there were lies,
damned lie and statistics, I would only add a fourth category: government
statistics.
More specifically government statistics put
out by Obama economists.
First quarter GDP was revised downward from
an initial reading of 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent, a revision amounting to a
whopping 35 percent. Even Republican pollsters got better margin of error
against Obama in 2012.
I know what you are thinking: These are the
same honest O’bam-a-con-O’mists who sold America Obamacare as a deficit
reduction measure-- a measure that would decrease healthcare costs, improve
healthcare, wash your car and make the seas part so Al Gore could walk to
Europe instead of taking his jet.
Thus, we should just give them the benefit
of the doubt like stock traders do.
Well, if this stock market ever tries to
trade just on real fundamentals- like it used to- the new cash-induced highs
that we’re told are the new normal could crash, as they normally do when taken
of the Fed’s cash-drug abruptly.
And here’s a cautionary note for all of
you: the second half of the year has tended to be troublesome the last few
years for both the economy and the stock market.
Or let’s put it this way: If these
revisions to GDP were a child, they’d have to put its picture on a carton of
milk. Abduction- or some other crime- is the only way to explain the missing
GDP from the first quarter’s initial read.
And then there’s the matter of the
miraculous 2Q-2013 initial reading for GDP that was just reported at 1.67
percent. As our own Mike Shedlock points out, they got that result because
suddenly inflation has been halved…officially and statistically.
Mike writes that Doug Short from Advisor
Perspectives says that without that suspicious inflation number (called a
deflator for GDP projections) GDP would have been reported as half of the 1.67
percent number: “GDP with a hypothetical 1.6% deflator (as forecast by
Briefing.com) would have been 0.78%, which rounds to 0.8%,” says
Short. “GDP with the average deflator over the
past 14 quarters (which is 1.75%) would have been 0.64%, which rounds to 0.6%.”
It all adds up to GREAT NEWS for the
market, while Main Street gets the bill .
Heads, the market wins, and tails Main
Street loses.
From USAToday:
“For Main Street, the GDP report is
downright frightening. After several rounds of quantitative easing, and a
somewhat sluggish improvement in the labor market, a 1.7% print is ridiculously
underachieving for our economy," says Todd M. Schoenberger, managing
partner at LandColt Capital.
However, "for Wall Street, this is
terrific news. It's hard to fathom the Fed taking its foot off of the
proverbial QE pedal with such a low and abysmal growth rate. It should be
status quo for the bulls as the rally will continue for the rest of the
summer," he added.
It was just a few weeks ago that we were
hearing about how unstoppable this economy finally, finally, finally was.
But there they go again.
The Top 7 Lies of Obam-a-CON-omists… So Far
7) Government Sequester-
Remember when the world was coming to an end because the government was
required to cut spending about half the amount that citizens were required to?
Yeah. I do too.
6) Oil and Energy- you see a
big problem is that we don’t have five dollars a gallon gas like they do in
Europe. Ha, ha, ha, ha!
5) Too-Big-To Fail- it’s a good
thing that they fixed the too-big-to-fail problem because, um, oh wait… they didn’t
fix it.
4) GDP- yes the geniuses
that brought us Obamacare have now included Miley Cyrus’s intellectual property
as part of our GDP. Why? Politicians are getting ready for another round of
reckless spending.
3) Inflation- inflation? what
inflation? Oil is always $110 a barrel.
2) Obamacare- politicians are
using Obamacare as the newest way to bail out big cities. Why? Politicians are
getting ready for another round of reckless spending.
1) Unemployment- you want
progress? Twice as many people are getting food stamps than jobs created since
Obama took office. How progressive!
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