US Federal Spending 1-11-26

US federal spending in 2026 is projected to be around $6.0 to $7.0 trillion, with deficits estimated near $1.7 to $2.0 trillion for FY2026, driven by increased defense/security outlays and substantial interest on debt, with long-term trends showing deficits growing as a percentage of GDP due to mandatory spending pressures. Projections vary, but all point to rising debt, with interest payments potentially exceeding $1 trillion annually soon.  

FY2026 Projections

Total Spending: While exact figures vary by source, projections suggest total outlays near the $7 trillion mark for the fiscal year.

Deficit: Projections range from $1.7 trillion (CBO/CEA) to potentially $2.0 trillion (OMB) for FY2026, with recent months showing significant borrowing.

Key Drivers: The proposed budget includes large increases for Defense (over $1 trillion) and Homeland Security, alongside significant non-defense cuts in some areas, but mandatory spending and interest on debt remain dominant. 

Beyond 2026 (Long-Term Outlook)

Growing Debt & Deficits: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) forecast deficits remaining high, potentially reaching $2.6 trillion (CRFB) or even higher as a percentage of GDP, with debt surpassing World War II levels.

Interest Costs: Interest payments on the national debt are already near $1 trillion annually and are projected to rise substantially, becoming a major spending component.

Social Security & Medicare: Trust funds for these essential programs are projected to face insolvency within about seven years (around 2032), necessitating significant policy changes to avoid benefit cuts. 

Key Factors Influencing Projections

Economic Growth: Slower growth, increased tariffs (as suggested by Deloitte Insights), and inflation levels impact revenue and spending.

Policy Choices: Budgetary decisions on defense, entitlements, and discretionary spending heavily influence future outcomes.

Mandatory vs. Discretionary: Mandatory programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and interest payments consume the vast majority of the budget, with discretionary spending (defense, education, etc.) being a smaller, though significant, portion. 

U.S. federal spending for fiscal year 2026 is projected to be approximately $7 trillion. Over the next decade, total outlays are expected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated $10.6 trillion by 2035. 

2026 Spending Projections

Total Outlays: Projected at $7.0 trillion, representing roughly 23% of GDP.

Discretionary Spending: The Trump administration's FY 2026 budget proposal requests $1.69 trillion in discretionary funding.

Defense: Proposed to increase by 13% to over $1 trillion. Deterrence is achieved by successful strikes on Iran and Venezuela. More deterrence comes from equipment upgrades.

Non-Defense: The proposal includes deep cuts to several departments, including Health and Human

Services (-$33.3B), Housing and Urban Development (-$33.6B), and State and International Programs (-$49.1B).

Mandatory Spending: Expected to total approximately $4.2 trillion, with Social Security and Medicare remaining the largest components.

Net Interest: Projected to cost roughly $1 trillion annually as interest rates remain elevated. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+us+federal+spending+projected+to+be+in+2026+and+beyond

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader