Gaza Peace Deal 10-12-25

Based on the peace plan that Israel and Hamas agreed to in October 2025, Phase 1 includes a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages for prisoners. Negotiations on Phase 2, which involves a permanent end to hostilities and Israeli withdrawal, are intended to follow.  

Phase 1: Hostage-prisoner exchange and partial withdrawal

After intense negotiations, with mediation from the US, Egypt, and Qatar, both parties signed off on the first phase of the deal on October 9, 2025. The key elements of this phase include: 

·       Ceasefire: The deal implements a pause in fighting in the Gaza Strip.

·       Hostage release: Within 72 hours of Israel's cabinet ratifying the agreement, Hamas is required to release all remaining living hostages.

·       Prisoner release: In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences, some of whom will be exiled abroad. Approximately 1,700 other prisoners detained since October 7, 2023, will also be released.

·       Partial Israeli withdrawal: Israeli forces are to withdraw to an "agreed-upon line," leaving them in control of about half of the Gaza Strip.

·       Humanitarian aid: The deal mandates a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza. 

Phase 2: Permanent calm and reconstruction

While Phase 1 addresses the immediate cessation of hostilities, Phase 2 focuses on establishing a "sustainable calm" and the long-term future of Gaza. The framework for Phase 2 has been outlined, but further negotiations are required for implementation.

Elements of Phase 2 include: 

·       Permanent ceasefire: Under Phase 2, the temporary ceasefire is expected to become permanent.

·       Complete Israeli withdrawal: Remaining Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Gaza.

·       Full hostage release: All remaining living male hostages, including soldiers, would be released by Hamas.

·       Release of remains: The remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released in exchange for the remains of Palestinians held by Israel.

·       Reconstruction of Gaza: A major plan for the reconstruction of the enclave would begin.

·       New governance: A transitional committee of Palestinian technocrats, overseen by a "Board of Peace," is expected to temporarily govern Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority can take control. Hamas would not have a role in the new government. 

Sticking points

The implementation of Phase 2 faces several obstacles, with previous ceasefires having fallen apart: 

·       Disagreement on permanence: Hamas has previously insisted on a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire before releasing all hostages, a point Israel had resisted. While mediators have reportedly provided verbal assurances, a written agreement for a permanent end to the war remains unconfirmed.

·       Hamas disarmament: US President Donald Trump's original plan includes the disarmament of Hamas, a condition the group has not agreed to.

·       Governance of Gaza: The proposal for a new technocratic government without Hamas's involvement, followed by a reformed Palestinian Authority, is a complex political hurdle. 

Current Status

As of October 9, 2025, Israel's cabinet was set to vote on ratifying the Phase 1 deal. While the initial announcement brought relief to many, skepticism remains due to the history of failed agreements and the many unresolved, more difficult issues concerning Gaza's future. 

As of October 2025, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a peace deal brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. This phase includes a ceasefire, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas, and a major exchange of Palestinian prisoners. The specifics of the second phase are still under negotiation and involve more complex, long-term issues. 

Phase 1: Ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange

This initial phase, which Israel and Hamas signed on October 9, 2025, is focused on immediate humanitarian actions. 

·       Hostage release: Hamas will release the remaining hostages captured during the October 7, 2023, attack, including those believed to be still alive and the bodies of those who died. President Trump has stated this could occur early in the week of October 13.

·       Prisoner exchange: In exchange for the hostages, Israel will release a substantial number of Palestinian prisoners. This includes detainees from Gaza and hundreds of prisoners, some serving life sentences.

·       Partial Israeli withdrawal: Israeli forces will pull back to an agreed-upon line, giving up control of about 53% of the Gaza Strip.

·       Increased aid and resident return: Large quantities of humanitarian aid will be allowed into Gaza, and displaced Palestinians can begin to return to their homes. 

Phase 2: Long-term resolution negotiations

This phase addresses the more difficult and comprehensive issues required for a lasting peace, and its terms are not yet finalized. 

·       Future governance: The plan calls for an interim security force and a temporary governing body of Palestinian technocrats to run Gaza. These institutions would be supervised by a "Board of Peace," chaired by President Trump.

·       Hamas disarmament: The deal requires Hamas and other militant groups to be disarmed, and all "military, terror and offensive infrastructure" to be destroyed.

·       Full Israeli withdrawal: Israel is expected to complete its withdrawal from Gaza during this phase, though the specifics remain unclear.

·       Ending the blockade: Provisions under discussion include lifting Israel's long-standing blockade on the Gaza Strip. 

Phase 3: Reconstruction and future of Gaza

Following the conclusion of the first two phases, this final stage would address the reconstruction of Gaza and the path to future stability. 

·       Reconstruction of Gaza: A significant economic development plan would be launched to rebuild the Strip after two years of war.

·       Establishment of Palestinian governance: The goal is to hand over governance to a reformed Palestinian Authority, leading toward the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state. 

Outstanding issues

While the agreement on Phase 1 has generated cautious optimism, serious disagreements remain over the subsequent phases. 

·       Hamas' role: Some reports indicate that while Hamas has agreed to the disarmament provision, its future role in Gaza's governance is not fully resolved.

·       International guarantees: Hamas has sought guarantees from the U.S. that Israel will not resume fighting after the hostage release, but it is unclear if this has been secured.

·       Long-term Israeli commitment: Some analysts worry that the longer-term goals of the plan could be stalled or forgotten once the initial hostage-prisoner exchange is complete.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader