As
of late 2025, the U.S. is on track for a significant decline in homicides,
with some analyses suggesting the lowest murder rate ever recorded since 1960.
Preliminary data from various sources indicates a nationwide decrease,
continuing a downward trend that began in 2022.
Key Statistics and Projections for 2025
Significant Drop: Homicides fell 17% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 across 30 U.S. cities that reported data to the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).
Murder Rate Projection: The U.S. murder rate for 2025 is estimated to be around 4.38 per 100,000 people, which would be the lowest rate recorded since the mid-1960s.
Total Deaths (Estimated): One estimate projects around 14,500 total murders for the year 2025.
Mass Killings: The number of mass killings in the U.S. for 2025 hit a 20-year low, the lowest level since 2006, according to a database managed by Northeastern University and partners.
Real-Time Data: The Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which samples data from hundreds of cities, reported that murder was down 20% through July 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.
Data
Sources and Context
The figures for 2025 are based on preliminary data collected from local police departments and real-time crime trackers. Official final data from the FBI and CDC for the entire calendar year 2025 will not be available until a later date, typically the following year.
Experts
attribute the decline to a "regression to the mean," a statistical
phenomenon where unusual spikes in crime (like those seen during the pandemic)
return to more typical levels, rather than a single specific cause.
For
more information and detailed reports, you can explore the data from these
sources:
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics
In 2025, U.S. homicide rates continued a significant downward trend that began in 2022. Preliminary data and expert projections suggest that 2025 may record one of the lowest murder rates in U.S. history.
National Homicide Trends
Significant Decline: As of mid-year 2025, homicides fell by approximately 17% to 21% across major U.S. cities compared to the same period in 2024.
Total Projected Deaths: Analysts estimate that the final murder count for 2025 will be approximately 14,500, which would represent a historic low when adjusted for population.
Gun Homicides: The Gun Violence Archive reported 14,099 total gun-related homicides, murders, or unintentional deaths as of December 19, 2025. Separate data from October 2025 indicated roughly 11,197 shooting deaths through the third quarter.
Specific Categories & Subsets
Mass Killings: Incidents of mass killings (four or more victims) hit a 20-year low in 2025. By early December, there were only 17 recorded mass killings, the lowest number since 2006.
Mass Shootings: As of November 30, 2025, a total of 390 people were killed and 1,778 wounded in 398 mass shooting incidents.
Officer-Involved Deaths: Data as of late December reported 1,353 suspects killed in officer-involved incidents, while 76 officers were killed in the line of duty.
Regional Highlights
Columbus, Ohio: Recorded 81 homicides through December 17, 2025, the first time the city's annual total dropped below triple digits in a decade.
Washington, D.C.: Reported a 17% to 18% decline in homicides and violent crime categories through mid-2025 compared to the previous year.
Large City Trends: Cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Baltimore saw homicides fall below pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025.
For the most up-to-date daily figures, the Gun Violence Archive Reports provide real-time tracking of shooting incidents and fatalities across the country.
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+deaths+by+homicide+2025
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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