Cuba Economy 6-21-25

Cuba economy 2025

Based on current economic forecasts and reports, Cuba's economy in 2025 is expected to face continued challenges, building upon a difficult year in 2024. 

Here's a summary of key aspects:

Economic Growth:

• Cuba's economy is expected to experience only 1% growth in 2025, after a period of decline and recession.
• Some sources, like the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), have predicted a slight decrease of -0.1% in GDP for 2025.
• The government has adopted an approach referred to as "war economy" to address the crisis, prioritizing certain sectors while potentially limiting civilian consumption. 

Challenges and Contributing Factors:

• US Sanctions: The long-standing US embargo and intensified measures continue to significantly impact Cuba's economic activity and limit access to foreign currency.
• Energy Crisis: Cuba faces a severe energy crisis with only a fraction of its oil-powered plants functioning, leading to prolonged power outages that disrupt daily life and paralyze industries.
• Inflation and Shortages: High inflation persists, making essential goods like food and fuel unaffordable for many Cubans, leading to shortages and hardship.
• Tourism Decline: The tourism sector, a crucial source of foreign currency, continues to struggle with declining visitor numbers, falling short of targets despite efforts to revive it.
• Inefficient Economic Management: Experts point to internal factors such as centralization, state inefficiency, and inadequate infrastructure as contributing to the economic crisis.
• External Debt: Unsustainable levels of external debt further pressure the economy, despite renegotiation efforts. 

Potential Opportunities and Future Outlook:

• BRICS Membership: Cuba has become a partner member of BRICS, raising hopes for potential financial assistance and cooperative efforts to bypass the US-dominated financial infrastructure.
• Strategic Realignment: Experts suggest the need for a comprehensive tourism development strategy that diversifies offerings and markets, as opposed to solely focusing on hotel investments.
• Potential for Political Change: While popular protests are not currently sufficient for the government's loss of power, a shift in political stability could occur if civil society organizations can coordinate their efforts. 

In summary, Cuba's economy in 2025 is expected to be marked by modest growth amidst significant challenges related to US sanctions, an ongoing energy crisis, high inflation, and declining tourism, requiring strategic adjustments and potential external support to navigate forward. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=cuba+economy+2025

Cuba trading partners 2025

In 2025, Cuba's main trading partners include:

• Venezuela
• China
• Spain
• Canada
• Mexico
• Brazil
• The Netherlands
• United States: While subject to a long-standing embargo, the US is still a significant trading partner for specific goods, such as agricultural products and medical supplies. 

Historical Context:

Historically, Cuba's trade relationships have shifted significantly. In the 1950s, over two-thirds of its foreign trade was with the United States. However, the US embargo, implemented after the Cuban Revolution and nationalization of property, drastically reduced trade, redirecting it toward the Soviet Union and other socialist countries. 

Recent Trends:

• In 2024, the US exported $586.5 million in goods to Cuba.
• In April 2025, US exports to Cuba increased by 27% compared to April 2024.
• The primary US exports to Cuba in April 2025 were Poultry Meat, Commodities not elsewhere specified, and Pig Meat.
• In 2024, Cuba's largest export trading partner was Canada.
• In 2024, Cuba's largest import trading partner was Spain. 

Note: The US embargo against Cuba remains in place, although certain exports and imports are permitted under amendments and specific regulations. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=cuba+trading+partners+2025

Cuban imports and exports

Cuba, in 2023, was the 158th largest exporter in the world

Key Export Products:

• Agricultural products: Sugar historically held the top spot, but now other products like rolled tobacco, nickel, and beverages (particularly hard liquor like rum) are prominent exports.
• Minerals: Cuba has large nickel reserves, which accounts for a significant share of exports.
• Pharmaceutical products: These are also a key export commodity. 

Major Export Partners (2023):

• China ($358M)
• Spain ($129M)
• Germany ($68.1M)
• Switzerland ($48.2M)
• Hong Kong ($43.7M) 

Key Import Products:

• Machinery, fuel, and manufactured goods: These represent significant import categories.
• Foodstuffs: Cuba relies heavily on imports for cereals and processed foodstuffs due to lower domestic agricultural productivity and the impact of recent hurricanes.
• Others: Diesel engines, vehicles, motor parts, and vegetable oils are also major imports. 

Major Import Partners (2023):

• Spain ($938M)
• China ($504M)
• Netherlands ($390M)
• United States ($366M)
• Canada ($220M) 

Trade Balance:

• Cuba generally experiences a merchandise trade deficit.
• In 2023, the trade deficit was -$8.02 billion. 

Trade Dynamics:

• Historical context: Cuba's trade was historically dominated by the United States until the implementation of the U.S. trade embargo.
• Shift in partners: Trade then shifted towards the Soviet Union and other socialist countries.
• Post-Soviet era: Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Cuba's overall trade significantly declined.
• Recent trends: The United States has re-emerged as a major trading partner since 2002, primarily through permitted exports of agricultural goods and medical devices under exceptions to the embargo.
• Current Challenges: The Cuban economy faces challenges in generating sufficient exports to finance imports, leading to difficulties in acquiring essential goods like food and agricultural inputs. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=cuban+imports+and+exports

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader