Iran Citizens will Wait 6-24-25

Iran citizens won’t protest. They may approach Iran’s regime critics to see if a coup is brewing. Their experience with protests is brutal. They are arrested and brutalized so they don’t protest again. 

Several sources indicate that Iranian security forces are responsible for arresting citizens during protests. 

These security forces include:

·       Morality police: They were involved in the arrest of Mahsa Amini, whose death in their custody sparked nationwide protests in 2022.

·       Basij militia: This paramilitary force has been involved in enforcing the dress code and harassing protesters, including a recent incident where a female student was arrested after stripping in protest against their harassment.

·       Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): The IRGC has been involved in cracking down on protests and arresting those involved in organizing or participating in demonstrations, including women's rights activists. They are also known for pressuring family members of protesters and journalists to deter them from activism.

·       Ministry of Intelligence: This body has been involved in arresting protesters and subjecting them to ill-treatment and torture. 

It is important to note that the Iranian authorities often characterize protests as foreign-backed "riots" and have used lethal force against protesters. Human rights organizations have documented numerous cases of arbitrary arrests, torture, and ill-treatment of detainees during the crackdown on protests. There are also concerns that the authorities misuse ambulances to detain protesters. 

Who arrests iran's citizens when they protest

In Iran, when citizens protest, the authorities responsible for making arrests are primarily the 

Law Enforcement Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran (LEF), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its paramilitary branch, the Basij. 

Key Points:

·       Law Enforcement Forces (LEF): The LEF is the primary security organization responsible for crowd control and protest suppression.

·       Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): The IRGC is a major military force in Iran that is also responsible for suppressing dissent and maintaining the regime's control. The Basij is formally a branch of the IRGC.

·       Basij: The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer militia that is notorious for its harsh crackdowns on protests. They are often described as being "tightly affiliated" with the Islamic Republic's "hardline" political faction.

·       Morality Police: The morality police, known as the Gasht-e Ershad, focus on enforcing laws related to dress and behavior, especially the compulsory hijab laws. They also have the authority to detain individuals who violate these laws, and they have been involved in protest suppression efforts. 

Involvement in Recent Protests:

·       These forces have been involved in the crackdown on widespread protests in Iran, such as those that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.

·       There have been credible reports of security forces, including the Basij, using excessive and lethal force against protesters, leading to injuries and deaths.

·       Arrests of protesters, activists, and even family members of those killed have been widespread. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=who+arrests+iran

Iranian citizens are generally allowed to leave Iran, but they may need to obtain an exit permit and potentially pay an exit tax. Dual nationals, particularly those with US citizenship, face additional complexities due to the Iranian government not recognizing dual nationality. 

Comments

Iran will freeze in the headlights. They will launch propaganda campaigns everywhere and pressure their citizens to toe the line to avoid harassment.

Israel can respond to missile attacks if they come from Iran. But too many neighborhood-based police groups are too embedded with the population and these are the groups who brutalize citizens.

It may take an armed revolution to unseat the current regime. Iranian citizens could begin to leave Iran in advance of any revolution. Allowing the Iranian citizen to vote out the regime probably won’t be tolerated. Elections are scheduled in Iran for February 2028.

The current President is a Reformist. Iran citizens should try working with him instead of protesting to see what reforms they could achieve.

In Iran, reformists generally advocate for social and political liberalization, economic improvement, and a more moderate approach to governance within the existing Islamic Republic framework. They seek to balance the aspirations of the urban middle class and women for greater freedoms with the need to maintain stability and respect the established system. Iran citizens need to confirm whether or not these principles are achievable.

While Iran's reformist movement initially achieved some notable successes, including the establishment of elected councils and the strengthening of civil society, it has faced significant setbacks and is currently struggling to regain influence. The movement's efforts to introduce reforms within the existing political system have been largely thwarted by conservative forces, particularly the Guardian Council, which has disqualified reformist candidates and limited their ability to implement change. Here's a more detailed look:

Initial Achievements:

Elected Councils: The reformist movement helped establish elected city and village councils, empowering local communities and fostering a sense of political participation.

Civil Society & Media: They revitalized civil society and the media, creating space for public discourse and activism.

Political Entitlement: The movement fostered a sense of political entitlement among Iranians, encouraging them to demand greater rights and freedoms. 

Setbacks and Challenges:

Disqualification of Candidates: The Guardian Council, dominated by hardliners, has frequently disqualified reformist candidates from elections, hindering their ability to gain power and implement reforms. 

Erosion of Social Base: The reformist movement has seen its social base erode, with many Iranians disillusioned by the perceived ineffectiveness of the movement and its inability to bring about meaningful change. 

Perception of Ineffectiveness: Some Iranians view the reformists as part of the existing system, rather than a force for genuine change, especially given the limited success of reformist presidents like Khatami. 

Conservative Backlash: Conservative forces have responded to the reformist movement with a backlash, including violence and repression, further marginalizing the movement. 

Limited Power of the Presidency: Even when reformists have won the presidency, they have faced significant limitations on their power due to the authority of the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council. 

Current Status:

Struggling to Reinvent: The reformist movement is currently struggling to reinvent itself and find a new path forward. 

Focus on Power: Some observers note that today's reformists are primarily focused on gaining power rather than challenging the fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic. 

Reconciling with the System: Some reformists have reconciled themselves to the policies of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, seeking to assure him that they are not a threat to the regime. 

In conclusion, while the reformist movement in Iran initially achieved some positive changes, it has faced significant obstacles and is currently struggling to regain its footing. The movement's ability to achieve meaningful reforms within the existing political system remains highly uncertain. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=has+the+reformist+party+in+iran+achieved+any+reforms

It is difficult to predict whether Iran's next Supreme Leader would be more liberal. The selection process is complex and influenced by various factors, including the views of the Assembly of Experts, the clerical establishment, and the Revolutionary Guard. 

Here are some potential scenarios and factors:

Factors that might favor a more liberal successor:

·       Growing popular dissatisfaction: There is a "crisis of rising popular dissatisfaction" in Iran due to poverty and deprivation, according to Reuters. A more moderate or reformist leader might be seen as more palatable to the public and potentially help address this dissatisfaction.

·       Need for a unifier: Some potential candidates, like Hassan Khomeini, are seen as potential unifiers who could bridge the gap between different political factions. His lineage also carries weight, offering emotional resonance across the political spectrum.

·       Desire for a less confrontational approach: Amidst external pressures, including tensions with the U.S. and Israel, a more conciliatory leader might be perceived as a more suitable option. 

Factors that might favor a hardline successor:

·       Influence of the Revolutionary Guard: The Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) holds significant power and influence, and might favor a hardline candidate to maintain its authority and the regime's conservative trajectory.

·       Emphasis on continuity and orthodoxy: Some candidates prioritize religious legitimacy and the preservation of revolutionary ideals, suggesting a commitment to the current system.

·       The Supreme Leader's final say: Ultimately, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would have the final say in the succession process, and his inclination towards hardline policies is well-established. 

In conclusion:

While there is a possibility that a more moderate or reformist leader could emerge, it is important to acknowledge that the hardline establishment, particularly the Revolutionary Guard, holds considerable sway in the selection process. The outcome will depend on a complex interplay of political forces and the specific circumstances surrounding the succession. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=would+iran%3Bs+supreme+leader

Comments

Of the groups created by the reformist movement, Political Entitlement could be the place to go for now.

Ali Hosseini Khamene is 88 years old. If the Revolutionary Guard is weakened, a new leader might be the answer.

We just need a regime that doesn’t want a nuclear bomb, doesn’t want to fund terror groups and doesn’t want to destroy Israel and the US.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader