Monday, May 26, 2014

Braves v Falcons Subsidies

Simple Comparison of Cobb County Braves Stadium public financing with Fulton County/Falcons by Chris Peters

Executive Summary:  the public subsidy being given to the Braves by Cobb County is much larger than that being given to the Atlanta Falcons by Fulton County, both in an absolute total amount and a relative percentage.  The current deal should be re-negotiated to give taxpayers more protection and get more “skin in the game” from the Braves Major League Baseball (MLB) team.
Public financing:  As stated in the M.O.U. and updated on Friday, May 23rd on the county website, Cobb county is going to borrow $397M (M=million) towards the overall stadium cost of $672M.  This number presumes estimated financing costs of $24 million annually (a worst case estimate that could be lower depending on the economy and other hard to predict factors) and the principal amount of $300M.  In terms of the principal to be borrowed in the capital markets, Cobb is paying 45% of the stadium cost. Including interest, Cobb is probably paying more (the Braves financing for their portion of the stadium cost is unknown, making it hard to compare apples to apples.)

Down the road in Fulton County, taxpayers are paying $200 million towards a stadium estimated to cost $1.2 billion. That represents a 17% share of the stadium cost.  Assuming a market rate of interest of 5% for AA rated debt, annual interest payments for Fulton County would be roughly $10 million/year.
So in terms of both absolute numbers and percentages, Cobb County is paying quite a bit more to subsidize the team.    You should be asking why.  Cobb County has a higher bond rating than Fulton. The economics of both MLB and the NFL are hugely profitable.  Liberty Media recently announced that they would be getting an extra $500 million from re-worked TV deals, enough to almost pay for the entire stadium single handedly.

Debt service:  In terms of the county budget, the bottom line for the next 30 years will be the annual payments to service the debt.  Let’s look at those payments in terms of their size relative to the county budget.
Note – all numbers on Cobb County were taken from the county web site “budget at a glance” valid for the 2013 fiscal year.

At $24M/year the debt service for the stadium represents roughly 3% of the total county budget for 2013 ($768M.)  Minus the $6.1M payment from the MLB club, debt service is approximately 2% of the county budget.  Looking at that last number relative to other line items, the approximately $16M of annual debt service will be larger than many line items, including the total amount spent on E911 services ($10M), and almost as much as the total amount spent on public transit ($18M.)
Relative to total property tax revenue ($268M) for the county, the debt service is 6% of revenue.

Let’s do a quick look at Fulton County, which is larger than Cobb in terms of population and total budgetary dollars ($1.2 Billion.)
Relative to total revenue, the annual debt service of $10M represents less than 1% of the total budget for Fulton County taxpayers.  Therefore it seems that the additional debt taken by Fulton County is more manageable in terms of its overall impact on the county budget.  If I were an investor I would stay away from Cobb County’s “Braves bonds” in favor of Fulton County’s “Blank Bonds.”  This is quite ironic given the higher bond rating for Cobb County.

Finally, I have not gotten into the intricacies of just how the stadium debt will be financed.  Current state law dictates that revenue bonds SHALL NOT be paid using general funds:
GA Constitution, Article IX Section VI:

The obligation represented by revenue bonds shall be repayable only out of the revenue derived from the project and shall not be deemed to be a debt of the issuing political subdivision. No such issuing political subdivision shall exercise the power of taxation for the purpose of paying any part of the principal or interest of any such revenue bonds.
Given that the Braves are only paying $6.1M out of the $24M in annual costs, I am not sure where the other $18M will come from.  The M.O.U. envisions some combination of hotel/motel taxes and continuing a millage increase passed back in 2008 to pay for parks bonds.  This sounds constitutionally dubious to me.  At any rate the money will have to come from somewhere, crowding out other budget priorities.  Keep in mind that the county property tax digest dropped by $5 billion during the last recession.

Conclusion:  Given Cobb County’s relatively strong fiscal position the excessive debt taken on by the Braves deal may initially not be a huge problem.  However, at some point in the next 10 years there will be another recession and the debt servicing cost will become more burdensome.  The first thing to drop off in a recession is discretionary spending on entertainment such as attendance at pro sports.   County commissioners should re-negotiate this deal now before it is too late.  The Braves aren’t going anywhere, they want to be in Cobb County and we should welcome them but as equal partners not as a subsidized poster child for corporate welfare. 
Source: Email from Christopher Peters, Marietta GA

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/liberty-ceo-reworked-tv-deals-mean-in-the-order-of/nfrfr/

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