Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Russian Gasoline Imports to Brazil 10-1-25

Brazil is heavily reliant on Russian refined oil products in 2025, with Russia holding the largest share of the market, especially for diesel, after a significant shift away from U.S. suppliers. Russia supplies approximately 59% of Brazil's imported diesel and 35% of gasoline as of August 2025, making Brazil a major buyer of Russian refined fuels. While Brazil does not import crude oil from Russia, it imports a substantial amount of refined products from the country, with recent data showing imports totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in mid-2025, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity.   

Key Trends and Figures

Shift to Russia: Brazil's import matrix for refined products shifted from a reliance on the U.S. to a Russia-centered supply, with Russia becoming the dominant supplier for diesel and gasoline.

Diesel and Gasoline: Russia provides the majority of Brazil's imported diesel (59%) and gasoline (35%) as of January–August 2025. 

Market Share: Brazil accounts for 12% of the global market for Russian refined oil products, making it the third-largest buyer after Turkey and China. 

Increased Imports: Between January and October 2024, Brazil's imports of Russian oil products rose by 40% compared to the same period in 2023. 

Quality Concerns: Despite the consolidation of Russian supply, Brazil continues to face quality issues with these imported refined products. 

Trade Volume: In July 2025, Brazil imported $597 million in refined petroleum from Russia, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Context

·       Geopolitical Factors: 

The shift in Brazil's supply of refined products from the U.S. to Russia began after the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, when the U.S. redirected fuel exports to European allies. 

·       Energy Transition: 

Although Brazil is investing in new domestic refineries that could boost production, the country's reliance on imported refined products remains significant for the foreseeable future. 

Brazil significantly increased imports of Russian refined petroleum products in 2024 and 2025, with Russia becoming a primary supplier of diesel. However, the future of these imports faces uncertainty due to several factors:

·       Reliance on Russian products: Brazil has become the third-largest buyer of Russian refined petroleum products globally, accounting for 12% of such imports as of August 2025. In June 2025 alone, Brazil imported €443 million ($483 million) worth of Russian oil products. Russia now accounts for 59% of Brazil's diesel imports and 35% of gasoline imports.

·       Diesel Dependence: Brazil imports roughly one-third of its diesel needs, with Russia supplying 60% of these imports in the first half of 2025.

·       Geopolitical pressure: The United States has pressured Brazil to reduce its reliance on Russian oil products, even suggesting potential tariffs on Brazilian goods. US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham also indicated that President Donald Trump intends to impose a 100% tariff on countries continuing to import oil from Russia. Brazil has rejected these demands, asserting that trade relations should not be subject to political interference.

·       Potential supply disruptions: Western sanctions on Russia could disrupt the supply of clean petroleum products to Brazil. If Russian diesel were cut off, finding alternatives would be difficult and likely result in higher costs.

·       Emerging challenges: Brazil's increased imports of Russian oil products have also presented quality challenges. 

Despite these challenges, Brazil has been exploring partnerships and trade with BRICS countries to counterbalance potential US tariffs and diversify its trade. Brazil's trade relationship with Russia also includes significant imports of fertilizers and investments in sectors like nuclear energy. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=brazil%27s+imports+of+russian+oil+products+2025

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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