The September 2025 official jobs report has not been released due to a government shutdown, but early private sector data, including the ADP National Employment Report, shows a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs, with continued hiring momentum slowing across most sectors. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas data indicated a 37% decrease in announced job cuts from August to September, but overall layoffs in 2025 remain at their highest since 2020. The healthcare sector remains a labor market strongpoint, but the overall picture suggests a stagnating labor market.
Key Data Points & Trends
Job Loss in Private Sector: Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP® Employment Report.
Slowing Hiring: While healthcare continues to be a strong sector, hiring momentum is slowing across most other sectors.
Layoff Reductions: Job cut announcements decreased by 37% in September compared to August, though year-to-date layoff numbers are still high.
Stagnating Labor Market: The overall trend suggests a stagnating labor market, despite some recent Fed interest rate cuts.
Wage Growth: Year-over-year wage gains for current employees accelerated to 4.5% in September, but wages for job changers slowed to 6.6%.
Why the Official Report Is
Missing
- A current government shutdown has cut off
access to most vital economic data, including the official September jobs
report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- The Fed, economists, and investors are relying on private sector data to gauge the economy's health during the shutdown.
What's Next
- The Fed is monitoring the labor market for
further signs of weakness.
- With interest rate cuts anticipated for
the rest of 2025, there is a possibility for stabilization in the fourth
quarter.
- The full-year benchmarking for the ADP National Employment Report will occur in February 2026.
Due to a U.S. government shutdown in early October 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) delayed the official September jobs report. Several alternative sources have released data and estimates that suggest a cooling but resilient labor market.
Alternative reports on the
September 2025 jobs data
- ADP National Employment Report: This
report showed that private-sector employment unexpectedly fell by 32,000
jobs in September. The payroll-processing firm also revised its August
2025 figure down sharply, from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000.
- Chicago Federal Reserve: Its
real-time labor market gauge, which blends private and official data,
estimated the September unemployment rate was 4.3%, unchanged from August.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas: The
outplacement firm announced that U.S.-based employers planned 54,064 job
cuts in September. This was a 37% decrease from August, though the
year-to-date total for 2025 remains high.
- Revelio Labs: This private workforce intelligence firm reported that the U.S. economy added 60,000 jobs in September.
Context of the government
shutdown and data delays
- BLS Report: The official
"Employment Situation" report for September was originally
scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 3,
2025. The ongoing government shutdown has indefinitely postponed this
release.
- Economic uncertainty: The lack of
official government data creates a critical information gap for
policymakers and financial markets. The data blackout comes as the Federal
Reserve and investors are watching for signs of a slowing labor market and
ongoing inflation.
- Alternative data reliance: Economists and financial analysts are relying on alternative private-sector reports and surveys to gauge the labor market's health during the official data delay.
Broader labor market trend
- The unofficial data and estimates indicate
a significant slowdown in job growth and a modest increase in the
unemployment rate in recent months, compared to earlier in the year.
- While the 4.3% unemployment rate is still low by historical standards, it suggests some weakening in the labor market. A prolonged government shutdown could further impact the economy and consumer spending.
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+jobs+report+september+2025
Comments
This AI Version of the September Jobs Report suggests that Employment is “flat” and headed down. Unemployment remains a 4.3%. Wage Growth is reported at 4.5%. Government Permanent Lay-Offs in October will be added to “job losses” in October. The Stock Market is not reacting to this news.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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