When entire countries declare bankruptcy,
they seem to reorganize, but still stay around, like Zimbabwe. I’m, sure the
lenders hang around in hopes to get their money back. The US has forgiven these
loans to other countries in the past; they just put the loss on the US voters’
tab. See below:
What happens when a country goes bust
Nov 24th 2014, 23:50 by S.N. http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-20
FROM the days
when monarchs over-borrowed for their mercantile adventures, to Argentina’s
recent failure to pay its creditors, countries have long run into trouble
paying back what they have borrowed. Spain’s 16th-century king, Philip II,
reigned over four of his country’s defaults. Greece and Argentina have reneged
on their commitments to bondholders seven and eight times respectively over the
past 200 years. And most countries have defaulted at least once in their
history. But what precisely happens when countries stop paying what they owe?
When a country
fails to pay its creditors on time, it is said to go into “default”, the
national equivalent of going bankrupt. But sovereign defaults are quite
different from business bankruptcies as it is far harder for creditors to
repossess the assets of a sovereign entity than to repossess the assets of a
company (an unarmed Argentinian naval vessel detained in Ghana for ten weeks in
2012 was an exception). In the first instance, to curry favour in international
markets, defaulting countries tend to restructure their debt rather than simply
refusing to pay anything at all. But these so-called “haircuts”, where the
original value of a bond is reduced, can be much more painful for the holders
of government bonds than a simple clip of the scissors. After its $81 billion
default in 2001, Argentina offered to pay its creditors a third of what it
owed—93% of the debt was eventually swapped for performing securities in 2005
and 2010. But the remainder, which is held by vulture funds and other
investors, is still in dispute. These “holdouts” are waiting for $1.3 billion
plus interest. And when Greece defaulted in 2012, bondholders were forced to
take hits as high as 50%. In less severe cases, countries may choose to
restructure their debt by requesting more time to pay. This has the effect of
reducing the present value of the bond—so it isn’t entirely pain-free for
investors. Some suggest that this is the right course of action for Ukraine as
it struggles to balance its immediate domestic priorities against its
obligations to bondholders.
Defaults can
also be very painful for the offending country, particularly if they are
unexpected and disorderly. Domestic savers and investors, anticipating a fall
in the value of the local currency, will scramble to withdraw their money from
bank accounts and move it out of the country. To avoid bank-runs and
precipitous currency depreciation, the government may shut down banks and
impose capital controls. As punishment for default, capital markets will either
impose punitive borrowing rates or refuse to lend at all. And credit-rating
agencies will no doubt warn against investing in the country. But as history
shows, in most countries yield-hungry lenders will eventually start lending
again so long as they are adequately rewarded for the risk they are taking on.
Moreover, credit-default swaps—financial instruments which act as a form of
insurance against sovereign and corporate defaults—allow bondholders to hedge
their risk. But not all defaults are the same: Argentina defaulted again this
year by refusing to pay $1.3 billion plus interest to the “holdouts” from
2001.
Critically,
there is no international law or court for settling sovereign defaults, which
helps explain why they are so varied in length and severity. More international
regulation has been proposed—including powers to prevent minority holders from
hijacking the process—but such conditions ultimately remain up to the issuing
country. The first bond issuances since the new proposals (by
Kazakhstan and Vietnam) include these clauses. Other countries might
follow suit, but this doesn’t resolve the $900 billion of bonds outstanding
that were issued under the old rules. Like any messy divorce, drawn out negotiations
around defaults can be costly for all parties involved. Working towards better
pre-nuptial terms might not be such a bad idea.
Dig deeper:
Will the next country to stiff bondholders be Ukraine or Venezuela? (Oct 2014)
Cristina Fernández argues that her country’s latest default is different. She is missing the point (Aug 2014)
As Argentina ponders its next step, the IMF suggests new rules for broke countries (Jun 2014)
Source:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-20
Will the next country to stiff bondholders be Ukraine or Venezuela? (Oct 2014)
Cristina Fernández argues that her country’s latest default is different. She is missing the point (Aug 2014)
As Argentina ponders its next step, the IMF suggests new rules for broke countries (Jun 2014)
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