Bloody Wednesday.
That’s my short-hand way of describing one of the most serious threats
to your wealth. And this morning, Chairman Janet Yellen all but confirmed that
it’s coming soon … very soon.
First, some background: Short-term interest rates have been
pegged essentially at zero since late 2008. The Federal Reserve hasn’t raised
them once … not once … since 2006.
Neither has virtually any central bank elsewhere on the
planet. Most have been cutting rates, flooding their economies with newly
printed money, and otherwise catering to the easy money crowd. In fact, the
Bank of Canada just lowered rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% this morning.
But two years ago, I started warning that the Fed was
nearing the end of its rope with Quantitative Easting (QE) and that bonds were
in trouble. I forecast that the Fed would start dialing QE down – long before
Wall Street expected at the time – and sure enough, that’s what the Fed did
starting in December 2013.
More recently, I forecast that the Fed was laying the
groundwork for actual interest-rate hikes. Since Fed meetings conclude on
Wednesday now, I said we were getting closer and closer to a “Bloody Wednesday”
– a day where the Fed would shake the financial markets to their core by
finally changing the cost of money. Janet Yellen: A rate hike ‘appropriate’
this year.
It has taken a bit longer than expected. But today, Yellen
went before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington and said you
better batten down the hatches – because the first rate hike is right around
the corner. Yes, it was couched in her traditional “Fed-speak” manner, but the
message from the following statement should be clear …
“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions
likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the
federal-funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of
monetary policy.”
This year. As in 2015. A year that only has five or so
months left. Yellen is far from alone, either. A large majority of Fed
policymakers – 15 out of 17 – said at last month’s meeting that they thought it
would be time to hike before year-end.
What’s more, the bond market isn’t even waiting for the
actual increases to begin! It’s front-running the Fed like always, with 30-year
Treasury yields surging from around 2.22% in January to 3.18% today.
Even more Fed-sensitive 5-year yields are closing in on the
top end of the range that has persisted since September 2013. If they clear
1.85% or so on a closing basis, you could see all heck break loose in the bond
market!
So you need to take steps to prepare for Bloody
Wednesday-related turmoil in the markets. “Make sure you get out of long-term
Treasury and other bonds.”
First, make sure you get out of long-term Treasury and other
bonds, if you haven’t already. They offer way too little yield, and way too
much risk, for a rising-rate environment.
Second, if you’re looking for yield, I recommend you mostly
avoid traditional “bond-like” sectors like Real Estate Investment Trusts
(REITs) and utilities. Focus instead on companies that can grow their dividends
even as rates rise, and that have more economic sensitivity. I have several of
my favorites in the Safe Money Report.
Third, put some of your capital in sectors that have already
been beaten down dramatically – and which have a lot of the risk wrung out of
them. Energy is clearly in this category.
Fourth, realize that the very low volatility, “up and to the
right” stock market environment we’ve been in for the past few years is over.
This is going to be a much rockier road going forward — one where solid
guidance from experts who have seen many an interest rate cycle over their
decades in the business will come in handy.
Lastly, understand that I’m forecasting a Bloody Wednesday
process that will play out in stages over a couple of years – not just a
one-off, one-day problem. Different strategies will make sense at different
points in that cycle. So be sure you stay tuned to Money and Markets for
guidance on how your investment strategy should evolve over time.
In the meantime, let me know your thoughts on Fed policy
going forward. Is Yellen signaling that a hike is right around the corner, and
if so, what are you doing to prepare? What should it mean for bonds, stocks,
and the currency markets? Have you already implemented the strategies I
highlighted, or do you have others that you’re putting into place? Be sure to
share your thoughts at the website.
From a financial or markets standpoint, we’ll have to see if
and when Iran’s oil, financial, and other sectors are opened back up to foreign
investment and involvement – and how much capital flows in. Energy is obviously
a key area of focus, and it’s worth nothing that oil prices haven’t really
budged since the landmark deal was announced.
I believe that confirms my long-held view that it’s going to
take a long time before significant amounts of Iranian oil hit the market. By
then, demand will have increased by more than enough to absorb those additional
barrels.
Moreover, the biggest global energy giants aren’t going to
write huge checks and commit significant resources toward enhancing Iranian
output unless prices rise substantially from current levels. So a lot of the
mainstream media commentary on that subject is nothing more than ill-informed
claptrap.
But again, I always welcome comments from you whether you
agree with me or not. So hit up the website and share them when you have time.
Other Developments of the Day
As we go to press, Greek legislators are still debating the
latest European bailout program. They need to approve several measures in order
to obtain aid from Greece’s creditors, so we’ll have to see how the vote goes. In
the meantime, one interesting side note to the Greek bailout drama is the
increasingly large split between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Eurozone
creditor nations.
The IMF believes Greece needs actual debt write-downs or
massive interest rate cuts and/or term extensions on its outstanding loans.
That’s because it expects Greece’s debt to balloon to an unsustainable 200% of
GDP in the next couple of years — even with a bailout. But Germany and other
countries keep pushing that issue off out of fear their citizens will rebel.
Some form of compromise will be necessary to ensure the IMF doesn’t back out of
future bailout programs.
Biotech continues to be a hotbed of M&A, with Celgene
(CELG) announcing plans to buy Receptos (RCPT) for $7.2 billion. Celgene is
eyeing Receptos’ ozanimod drug, which is in late-stage trials to treat
autoimmune diseases. It could generate as much as $6 billion in sales if
approved.
Bank stocks are doing fairly well these days, with Bank of
America (BAC) the latest to rally after the company reported that
second-quarter profit surged to $5.32 billion, or 45 cents a share, from $2.29
billion, or 19 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. That topped
estimates, helped along not only by substantial cost cuts but also strong
revenue of $22.3 billion.
Eureka! NASA’s rendezvous with the last of the solar
system’s planets (or “former” planets, as the case may be) was successful,
according to data sent back to earth late yesterday. The New Horizons probe
contacted earth to confirm it survived its Pluto flyby, whose closest approach
was roughly 7,750 miles from the dwarf planet’s surface. Data on its
observations will stream back over the next several weeks.
Market RoundupDow-3.41 to 18,050.17S&P-1.55 to
2,107.40NASDAQ-5.95 to 5,098.9410-YR Yield-0.049 to 2.35%Gold-$5.20 to
$1,148.30Oil-$1.60 to $51.44
Comments
If the Fed takes their discount rate from zero to .25, Banks
will begin to be charged for the free money they have received from the Fed. The Fed will take it from the banks to
rebuild the Fed’s balance sheet. The
Banks will cut costs, but will also be “required” to maintain some of the free
money for liquidity. If the stock market
reacts to this, the stock market bubble will take a hit.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader
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