Thursday, March 3, 2016

Trump Tax Plan Debate

Tax Schedule needed

Donald Trump will be attacked by Democrats for his Tax Plan.  His plan has morphed over time but all iterations have raised the number at the bottom to pay NO TAX and the top rate goes from 39.6% to 25%. 

His current individual income tax rate plan is 0 for couples earning $50,000 or less a year to, 10% from $50,001 to $100,000, 20% for $100,001 to $300,000 and 25% for over $300,001.
Cato criticized the plan in: Trump Tax Plan Would Increase Tax Eaters, By Chris Edwards September 28, 2015 4:20PM

Data from the Tax Policy Center show that 45 percent of U.S. households (“tax units”) will pay no federal income tax in 2015. That figure has risen in recent decades.
In raw numbers, 94 million households will pay some income tax in 2015, while 78 million will pay none. As the TPC table shows, virtually all higher-income households pay income tax, while the nonpayers are mainly in the bottom half.

Presidential candidate Donald Trump says that he would take another 31 million off the tax rolls, in addition to what he says are 42 million current nonpayers. As you can see, the Trump and TPC data do not match regarding the current number of nonpayers.
Let’s go with the TPC data. Adding tens of millions more nonpayers would push the total number over 100 million. There would be more “tax eaters” in America than taxpayers, at least in terms of the federal income tax.

To be fair, not all 100+ million nonpayers would be tax eaters. If someone paid no income tax, but also received no subsidies from the federal government, she could be called tax neutral. However, millions of moderate-income people receive the earned income tax credit (EITC), which is “refundable.” Those folks pay no income tax but get a check from the government when they file their tax return. They are tax eaters.

So a missing detail from the Trump proposal is his plan for the EITC. By zeroing out income tax for 31 million additional tax filers, he would automatically be boosting spending through the EITC. The refundable, or spending, part of the EITC is already $60 billion a year. Would Trump push that spending even higher?

I like many features of Trump’s overall tax plan. But taking more people off the tax rolls is not a good way to keep the government limited. If something is “free,” people will demand more of it. Under Trump, 31 million more households would have an incentive to demand more spending from Washington.


Comments

Trump’s tax brackets need to be displayed in a tax schedule table, or Democrats will claim that they are tax cliffs.  In a schedule, a couple earning $51,000 a year would pay 10% of the extra $1000; that’s $100. Democrats will claim that Trump wants to have them pay 10% of the total $51,000, if the tax schedule isn’t used to describe Trump’s plan.  
The EIC is really a Welfare Bonus Payment for parents and a Scam Program for illegal immigrants claiming all family members living in Mexico. This was a really bad idea.  It would have been better to simply raise the dependent deduction and not tie this to wage income.

Having all couples who make $25,000 to $50,000 pay 5% would make sense.  That would be $1250 to $2500 less any standard deductions and exemptions.  If we can take the fraud out of EIC and keep it, EIC would cancel out the income tax due, but wouldn’t result in a large cash bonus like it does now.  Poor working families with children have become dependent on this bonus. 

Other Welfare thresholds like Food Stamps, rent subsidies and cash welfare should be studied to make sure there are no disincentives to working.  Families reassume responsibility for family members. Having jobs for US citizens should be the exit threshold to lift citizens back into the productive economy.  Minimum wage jobs need to go back to US high school and college students. They are not getting the early job experience they need.  Any further immigration of welfare recipients or minimum wage workers is suicidal.

Trump’s $50,000 plan must assume that inflation will eat up most of their dollar’s value once wages start to increase.  If this is the case, Trump won’t want to add a 5% bracket.

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader

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