Thursday, August 15, 2024

US Oil Production Needed 8-15-24

The US will need to produce an additional 8 million bpd to close the gap between Consumption and Production. 

EIA reports average Oil price per barrel at $109.4 in 2022 and $82.41 in 2023. EIA estimates average Oil price per barrel at $82.49 in 2024 and $79.49 in 2025.

U.S. total petroleum consumption is forecast to rise by 200,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd in 2023, and is forecast to rise by another 200,000 bpd to 20.7 million bpd in 2024, the data showed. Aug 8, 2023

Year    M bpd - Reg Gas - Oil $ Ave

2025    13.44       3.24        86.0 est

2024    13.21       3.50        84.0 est

2023    11.91       3.97        82.0

2022    12.92       3.52       101

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

US Oil Production in 2021 showed US Oil Consumption at 19.69 barrels per day.

The US needed to increase oil production back to 13 million barrels per day in 2021 to begin reducing gasoline prices, but oil consumption rose estimates to again from 19.69 bpd to 20.7 bpd.

US Oil & N Gas Production by Month on 2020 and 2021 shows how the reduction in US oil production is driving higher gasoline prices that track the average price of oil.  This is pure supply and demand.

Mo Yr        Mbbd        $/gal    Oil Price bbl

Dec 2021    11.2        3.39     88.16

Nov 2021    11.7        3.39     80.54

Oct  2021    11.5        3.39     83.52

Sep 2021    10.809    3.26     74.49 

Aug 2021    11.189    3.06     70.75

Jul  2021     11.307    3.04     75.17

Jun 2021     11.276    2.96     73.16

May 2021    11.334    2.89     68.53

Apr 2021     11.230    2.77     64.81

Mar 2021    11.160    2.73     65.41

Feb 2021      9.883    2.41     62.28

Jan 2021    11.056    2.24      54.77

 

Dec 2020   11.084    2.11     49.99

Nov 2020   11.121    2.02     42.69

Oct 2020    10.413    2.07     40.19

Sep 2020   10.868    2.10     40.91

Aug 2020   10.558    2.09     44.74

Jul 2020     10.956    2.10     43.24

Jun 2020    10.420    2.00    40.27

May 2020     9.711    1.77    29.38

Apr 2020    11.911    1.72    18.38

Mar 2020   12.816    2.13     32.01

Feb 2020   12.826    2.35     55.66

Jan 2020   12.785    2.46     63.65

 

Dec 2019   12.910   2.47

Nov 2019   12.996   2.48

Oct 2019    12.771   2.50

Sep 2019   12.572   2.49

Aug 2019   12.475   2.52

Jul  2019    11.896   2.64

Jun 2019   12.179   2.60

May 2019  12.141   2.73

Apr 2019   12.125   2.69

Mar 2019  11.899   2.44

Feb 2019  11.653   2.22

Jan 2019  11.848   2.15   

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/204133/retail-prices-of-motor-fuel-in-the-united-states-since-2009/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/

The US consumed 19,690,000 barrels of oil per day in 2021. The US consumed 20,500,000 barrels of oil per day in 2024.

https://www.google.com/search?q=eia+us+oil+consumption+2024&oq=eia+us+oil+consumption+2024&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRigAdIBCTEyMzM3ajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-consumption-by-country

Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party Leader


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