By heeding their government's advice
and voting "No" in the referendum on Sunday, Greek citizens sent an
unambiguous message. Much like the fictional Americans portrayed in the movie “Network” who threw open their windows and shouted out, “I'm as mad
as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore,” the Greeks are demanding that
the rest of Europe acknowledge their distress.
Greece’s Fiscal Oddyssey
At this stage, however, only a
handful of European leaders seem willing to listen; and even fewer appear
willing to deliver the sort of relief that Greece desperately needs. The
implications will be felt primarily in Greece, but also in Europe and beyond.
Here are 10 consequences of the vote
that could unfold in the next few days:
1. The victory of the "No"
camp -- with more than 60
percent of the vote, according to
preliminary returns -- will initially lead to a general selloff in global
equities, along with price pressures on the
bonds issued by Greece, other peripheral euro zone economies and emerging
markets. German and U.S. government bonds will benefit from a flight to
quality.
2. Having been caught off guard,
European politicians will urgently seek to regain the initiative:
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Francois Hollande of France
will meet
in Paris on Monday to work on a
response. In a perfect world, these leaders would move quickly and
effectively with the Greek government to get past the conflict and acrimony
that preceded the referendum. This is likely to be difficult, given the
mistrust, bad blood and damaging accusations that have poisoned the
relationship.
3. Even with those challenges, Greek
and European politicians don't have much time to get their act together.
The horrid conditions in Greece will get a lot worse before they improve.
Without huge emergency assistance from the European
Central Bank -- a decision that faces long odds
-- the government will find it hard to get money to the country's automated
teller machines, let alone re-open the banks.
4. As hoarding increases, shortages
of goods, including fuel and food, will intensify. Capital and payments
controls will be tightened. The economy will take another worrisome step down,
worsening unemployment and poverty. And the government will struggle to pay
pensioners and the salaries of civil servants.
5. As a result, the government will
be under mounting pressure to issue some type of IOUs to maintain a sense of a
functioning economy. If it does, the IOUs will take on the role of a parallel
currency, quoted domestically at a discount to the single currency.
6. Outside Greece, a lot of thought
will be given to limiting adverse spillovers. The ECB will most likely
have to roll out new measures to contain regional contagion, including
expanding the current program of large-scale purchases of securities. This will
weaken the euro’s exchange rate. In addition, together with the International
Monetary Fund -- to which Greece is already in
arrears -- officials will be preparing for serial Greek defaults.
7. All parties involved will find
themselves slipping into their Plan B mode. This transition will probably be
much more traumatic for Greece than for the rest of Europe.
8. With the ultimate goal of
countering as quickly as possible the likelihood of further human suffering,
pain and uncertainty, Europe has the instruments and institutions to limit
contagion and maintain the integrity of the euro zone. But this will require
ECB action to be coupled with measures by the European Stability Mechanism and
the European Investment Bank aimed at completing a banking union and making
progress on fiscal integration.
9. It is quite doubtful, however,
that Greece will be able to restore its status as a full member of the euro
zone. Indeed, without very skillful
crisis management, it is at high risk of becoming a failed state. Rather than
just stand by, Europe needs to ensure that Greece's exit from the 19-member
euro zone doesn’t also result in its dissociation from the larger European
Union. This could involve special membership in an association agreement, for
example,
10. Finally, expect an explosion of
blame. This unproductive activity may end up delaying Europe's urgent need to
internalize the lessons from this sad outcome: A series of broken reform
promises by several Greek governments was made worse by political stubbornness,
poor analysis and inconsistent follow-through by Europe, which is contributing to
the loss of Greece as a functioning member of the family.
This
column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial
board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.
To contact the author on this story:
Mohamed A. El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net
Mohamed A. El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net
Comments
Greece is looking for funding, but
has rejected the failed IMF Austerity plan as being too fast and
counterproductive. We will need to see what austerity measures the Greek government
will retain and what they will relax. They are not likely to find funding for
2.5%, but they need to find low-cost funding to float the rest of their
debt. They will also want a decade or
more of that funding to allow demand to return to their private sector.
The blame goes way back to when
Greece decided to adopt policies like retirement pensions at age 45. I didn’t
find much about Greek government reforms like hiring freezes, tax reduction and
regulatory reforms to reduce the government cost and foot-print, but tracking
that will help us to see the full picture.
Norb Leahy, Dunwoody GA Tea Party
Leader
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